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Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

ukandeu.ac.uk

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Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#91

Post by munksbeer »

dudul wrote: post #60
kibibu wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're saying the bus didn't exist?

Reading is hard I guess. I'm saying Brexit was not sold as being positive for the economy. Yes the bus probably existed, and as I said, the argument was made that the excess in EU contribution would be spent domestically instead. But improving the economy was not the main argument of the Leave. They always mostly acknowledged that it would be a bit unknown, but whatever happened would be worth it if it meant more sov…

>Reading is hard I guess. I'm saying Brexit was not sold as being positive for the economy.

This is a lie. Provably so. Exhibit the other post replying to you.

But this is not unexpected, the entire brexit campaign was one lie after another, and the supporters lied about it continually too.

For much hilarity, read this. I still laugh each time:

https://www.reaction.life/p/britain-looks-like-brexit

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#92

Post by Zigurd »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #85
Zigurd wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Young people voted against Brexit by 2 to 1. If anything they are more opposed now. Perhaps they know if they've been harmed or not.

They voted 'remain' but, as said, what they feel and what the facts are are not the same thing. They might be pissed off that they cannot just go study in the EU anymore but the fact is that they didn't when they could... Even today, they can obviously register to study abroad, just need a visa like everyone else, and considering the English unis' tuition fees they would actually save money by doing so but hardly any…

Your response amounts to: ignore what the people affected value, only pay attention to a cherry picked number. Even the number you cherry picked is only valued by people who resent students coming to the UK and think they ought to pay steep tuition fee fees, which is just weird. Who benefits? Certainly not the students who would otherwise gain an international perspective.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#93

Post by mike_hearn »

pyeri wrote: post #43
grahar64 wrote: post #28

"The question was never whether this would involve costs" Brexit was sold as being positive for the economy. The proponents drove a bus around saying they would get 350 million back. It was largely advertised as a net positive for the economy

It was totally a rigged referendum, that bus hoarding propaganda somehow worked and the masses fell for the lies. But a great number didn't and it was barely lost by a few percentage points. David Cameron should have stayed and battled it out instead of resigning.

The bus was correct. The NHS budget has gone up by more than £350M since then even if you ignore the huge COVID boosts.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#94

Post by mike_hearn »

mmarq wrote: post #87
gpt5 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Brexit happened in 2020. GDP/capita change since then: * UK $40.8k -> $61.1k = +49.5% * Germany $48.0k -> $65.3k = +36.2% * France $39.2k -> $52.1k = +32.8% * Italy $32.0k -> $46.5k = +45.5% * Spain $27.2k -> $41.6k = +52.9%

Some effects of Brexit began right after the referendum (eg a business investment flattened since 2016). 2019–2020 are the worst years to start a comparison, because the UK uses a different accounting method to measure the government's contribution to GDP. So, COVID looks much worse in the UK and the recovery looks much better.

Business investment did not flatten after the referendum. Nothing happened after the referendum and the economy continued to grow, with unemployment falling to record lows.

Compare vs the prediction by guys like Portes, the author of the essay: "In the short term, we expect that a vote to leave would result in a significant economic downturn, with unemployment rising by up to 1.7 per cent"

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/002795011623600101

People like the author have no credibility. When they say things like, "Most serious estimates now suggest that UK GDP is several percentage points below where it would otherwise have been" they don't address the fact that "serious" people previously made many failed predictions. Like always in academia, continuous failure is not considered disqualifying for the job.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#95

Post by mike_hearn »

MagnumOpus wrote: post #73
Uhhrrr wrote: post #55

For comparison, Remain advocates predicted a fall in GDP of 3.6-6.0%: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/brexit-would-put-our-...

So it seems like they have been spot on? TFA quotes the OBR as estimating a 4% negative impact and the CEFR estimate of -5.5% cumulative impact.

There has been no negative impact. Every claim of negative impact falls apart when investigated. I wrote about one example on another thread:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48473246

The actual data doesn't support any of these estimates.

Note the response of the guy I was arguing with. Faced with the reality that the sources he/she trusted are lying, they rejected the honest source they asked for because of "bias". This kind of motivated reasoning is everywhere in this debate. Quite annoying.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#97

Post by IAmBroom »

water-data-dude wrote: post #4
Zigurd wrote: post #2

Just when the UK thought they had done the biggest self own in history, 'Merica says hold muh beer.

America can do anything the UK can do, but bigger and better!

And Texas will double down on that claim for themselves.

They even disconnected from the (essentially) country-wide power networks, so they could build something Texan... from which several people die every cold snap.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#98

Post by IAmBroom »

lenerdenator wrote: post #44
notahacker wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What America has done to its soft power, public image, national security and scientific research goes a bit beyond introduce a few semi-permanent non-tariff barriers to trade and lose some votes on some decision making bodies though. Though it's certainly done that too...

> soft power, public image Yes and no. There's always been an undercurrent of contempt for the US, particularly from Europe. Even during the Clinton and Obama years. There's no satisfying that.

People innately distrust and dislike the powerful. As (to some degree) they should.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#99

Post by mytailorisrich »

Zigurd wrote: post #92
mytailorisrich wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They voted 'remain' but, as said, what they feel and what the facts are are not the same thing. They might be pissed off that they cannot just go study in the EU anymore but the fact is that they didn't when they could... Even today, they can obviously register to study abroad, just need a visa like everyone else, and considering the English unis' tuition fees they would actually save money by doing so but hardly any…

Your response amounts to: ignore what the people affected value, only pay attention to a cherry picked number. Even the number you cherry picked is only valued by people who resent students coming to the UK and think they ought to pay steep tuition fee fees, which is just weird. Who benefits? Certainly not the students who would otherwise gain an international perspective.

This is a very odd reply.

I have not cherry-picked anything and I think assessing what people value has to look at how they act and behave, not just at what they say.

Not many UK students choose to study in Europe (I suspect in large part because of the language barrier). That was true when the UK was in the EU and it is true now when doing so is not super hard and would save them money. So maybe they valued the idea of being able to 'just go study in Europe' but they didn't do it much... Hence, minimal actual harm.

> Even the number you cherry picked is only valued by people who resent students coming to the UK and think they ought to pay steep tuition fee fees, which is just weird

I have no idea how you got that idea from my previous comment...

It is difficult to discuss anything related to Brexit.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#100

Post by dudul »

milch wrote: post #66
dudul wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reading is hard I guess. I'm saying Brexit was not sold as being positive for the economy. Yes the bus probably existed, and as I said, the argument was made that the excess in EU contribution would be spent domestically instead. But improving the economy was not the main argument of the Leave. They always mostly acknowledged that it would be a bit unknown, but whatever happened would be worth it if it meant more sov…

Look at the very first point on the archived vote leave page: https://web.archive.org/web/20160620214900/http://www.votele... Sure, you could argue that they didn't mean it would be positive for the economy to save that money, but "we will save 350M/week" is what's on the buses and their website. Even if we assume the average voter clicks through here and reads everything point by point, or goes onto the website in t…

OK, so I'm right. They are specifically talking about the contribution to the EU budget that would remain at home. They did not talk about the economy as a whole. There is no "heavily implied".

Other replies are hilarious, focusing on "muh! The BUS!!!". I don't care about the bus, I'm focusing on the broader point. "The economy" was never at the forefront of the arguments put forward by Leave.

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