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Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

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Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#31

Post by vrganj »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #27
rm445 wrote: post #11

The EU has mildly outperformed the UK in overall economic growth by perhaps 1 percentage point over the last 5-6 years, i.e. ~7% vs ~6%. While of course both massively underperformed the USA. It's hard to avoid concluding that the actual effects of Brexit have been smaller than this kind of analysis suggests, and while we squabble about such things our countries are missing opportunity after opportunity.

The UK has done alright and London has continued to do very well. Considering that there wasn't, and essentially still isn't, any plans on how to make the most (or anything...) of Brexit, that's telling, IMHO.

There is no making "the most" out of Brexit the same way there isn't a way to make "the most" out of sawing your own leg off. It was completely unforced self-mutilation. The fact they're still hobbling on is commendable, but it's still much worse than they would've been off otherwise.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#32

Post by shevy-java »

"Services firms, especially in regulated sectors, lost important market access rights. Free movement ended."

You mean Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson lied to the people?

I am ... shocked. Ok not really.

The strange thing is that Nigel keeps on lying - and people still (!!!) buy his lies. It is a fascinating case study. I concede that Nigel is good at rhetorics, but it also seems as if people want to be lied to. Otherwise they would have realised they were duped.

For the other EU member states, having UK no longer torpedo decisions, is actually great. The EU is way too huge anyway - and sadly, wants to expand more and more. That's also going to lead to a break up situation. And populists such as Nigel will take advantage of that (if the UK were in the EU).

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#33

Post by lenerdenator »

pstuart wrote: post #24
ToucanLoucan wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I still wouldn't put it at the level of Brexit. Perhaps not yet, but we have at minimum 2 and a half years of the Trump Family Circus to contend with, and they've gotten a lot destroyed in what time they've had so far. And, Trump isn't the real problem. Anti-intellectualism here has hit it's zenith. Fully a third of our country is so propagandized and media-illiterate that they can't really be said to share a reali…

One can take some hope that Germany recovered from its descent into fascism. But that was in a time where there was no social media and other brainwashing technologies embedded into the population. My hopes are tempered, to say the least.

They also had 45 years of being split in half with one side being under a totalitarian government, and the other being partially administrated by three other countries with troops stationed there and the threat of thermonuclear war should ever the two sides get in a disagreement.

Also, many of the same ills that caused fascism the first time are starting to re-emerge. You can see this in the rise of AfD.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#34

Post by mytailorisrich »

vrganj wrote: post #31
mytailorisrich wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK has done alright and London has continued to do very well. Considering that there wasn't, and essentially still isn't, any plans on how to make the most (or anything...) of Brexit, that's telling, IMHO.

There is no making "the most" out of Brexit the same way there isn't a way to make "the most" out of sawing your own leg off. It was completely unforced self-mutilation. The fact they're still hobbling on is commendable, but it's still much worse than they would've been off otherwise.

That isn't true, and a ridiculous take. There are pros and cons to both being in and out of the EU.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#35

Post by notahacker »

lenerdenator wrote: post #7
Zigurd wrote: post #2

Just when the UK thought they had done the biggest self own in history, 'Merica says hold muh beer.

I still wouldn't put it at the level of Brexit. The US actually has enough weight as an economy to have some bargaining power at trade negotiations. Now, whether the negotiator is working in good faith or not is another matter, but if the US suddenly stopped doing business with an individual country, it would likely cause the other side at least some problems. The UK does not have the weight the US does, and sanction…

What America has done to its soft power, public image, national security and scientific research goes a bit beyond introduce a few semi-permanent non-tariff barriers to trade and lose some votes on some decision making bodies though. Though it's certainly done that too...

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#36

Post by bborud »

rm445 wrote: post #11

The EU has mildly outperformed the UK in overall economic growth by perhaps 1 percentage point over the last 5-6 years, i.e. ~7% vs ~6%. While of course both massively underperformed the USA. It's hard to avoid concluding that the actual effects of Brexit have been smaller than this kind of analysis suggests, and while we squabble about such things our countries are missing opportunity after opportunity.

The real delta is the delta between what was promised and what was delivered.

Pretending that the outcome wasn't so bad by moving the goalposts closer is, quite frankly, dishonest.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#37

Post by janice1999 »

rm445 wrote: post #11

The EU has mildly outperformed the UK in overall economic growth by perhaps 1 percentage point over the last 5-6 years, i.e. ~7% vs ~6%. While of course both massively underperformed the USA. It's hard to avoid concluding that the actual effects of Brexit have been smaller than this kind of analysis suggests, and while we squabble about such things our countries are missing opportunity after opportunity.

Many of the UK's post-Brexit trade deals have been the previous EU one with a slight tweak. Even the much touted US beef deal was built on an EU scheme and was rather minimal at that. It's not surprising then that the EU and UK are similar. The lack of UK growth over the EU is a big indictment of Brexit from an economic perspective.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#38

Post by nostrademons »

kev009 wrote: post #22
nostrademons wrote: post #13

It's almost like the academics who said that free-trade and globalization were net benefits to the economy were right , and then reversing globalization and shutting borders simply reverses those gains. The interesting part is that while the benefits of globalization were not evenly distributed (part of the reason for the populist backlash against it), reversing it does not seem to benefit the people who were harmed…

The term globalization is doing a lot of work in this comment, what does it mean to you?

The idea that governments should get out of the way of free trade across borders, and that the policies they make only serve to make the economy less efficient. The backdrop for the economy should be the world, and not the nation. Within it, firms should feel free to transact with whoever gets the job done best.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#39

Post by madaxe_again »

kev009 wrote: post #22
nostrademons wrote: post #13

It's almost like the academics who said that free-trade and globalization were net benefits to the economy were right , and then reversing globalization and shutting borders simply reverses those gains. The interesting part is that while the benefits of globalization were not evenly distributed (part of the reason for the populist backlash against it), reversing it does not seem to benefit the people who were harmed…

The term globalization is doing a lot of work in this comment, what does it mean to you?

They evidently mean it as in the opposite of protectionism.
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