Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

ukandeu.ac.uk

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 108 posts

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#41

Post by AlexandrB »

LikesPwsh wrote: post #26
rm445 wrote: post #11

The EU has mildly outperformed the UK in overall economic growth by perhaps 1 percentage point over the last 5-6 years, i.e. ~7% vs ~6%. While of course both massively underperformed the USA. It's hard to avoid concluding that the actual effects of Brexit have been smaller than this kind of analysis suggests, and while we squabble about such things our countries are missing opportunity after opportunity.

Brexit harming the growth of both UK and EU is another perfectly valid interpretation of those numbers. I'm sure there's a little truth to both, and noise from all kinds of other factors.

I don't know about that. Canada also tracked the UK more closely than the US and it was not involved in Brexit[1]. The US just did really well during this time.

[1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2024...

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#42

Post by Zigurd »

LikesPwsh wrote: post #26
rm445 wrote: post #11

The EU has mildly outperformed the UK in overall economic growth by perhaps 1 percentage point over the last 5-6 years, i.e. ~7% vs ~6%. While of course both massively underperformed the USA. It's hard to avoid concluding that the actual effects of Brexit have been smaller than this kind of analysis suggests, and while we squabble about such things our countries are missing opportunity after opportunity.

Brexit harming the growth of both UK and EU is another perfectly valid interpretation of those numbers. I'm sure there's a little truth to both, and noise from all kinds of other factors.

It's not all noise. Being able to live, work, or study anywhere in the Schengen zone has tremendous value. But it doesn't show up in GDP numbers. Brexit harmed the young people of UK, and they hate it.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#43

Post by pyeri »

grahar64 wrote: post #28

"The question was never whether this would involve costs" Brexit was sold as being positive for the economy. The proponents drove a bus around saying they would get 350 million back. It was largely advertised as a net positive for the economy

It was totally a rigged referendum, that bus hoarding propaganda somehow worked and the masses fell for the lies. But a great number didn't and it was barely lost by a few percentage points. David Cameron should have stayed and battled it out instead of resigning.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#44

Post by lenerdenator »

notahacker wrote: post #35
lenerdenator wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still wouldn't put it at the level of Brexit. The US actually has enough weight as an economy to have some bargaining power at trade negotiations. Now, whether the negotiator is working in good faith or not is another matter, but if the US suddenly stopped doing business with an individual country, it would likely cause the other side at least some problems. The UK does not have the weight the US does, and sanction…

What America has done to its soft power, public image, national security and scientific research goes a bit beyond introduce a few semi-permanent non-tariff barriers to trade and lose some votes on some decision making bodies though. Though it's certainly done that too...

> soft power, public image

Yes and no.

There's always been an undercurrent of contempt for the US, particularly from Europe. Even during the Clinton and Obama years. There's no satisfying that.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#45

Post by dudul »

grahar64 wrote: post #28

"The question was never whether this would involve costs" Brexit was sold as being positive for the economy. The proponents drove a bus around saying they would get 350 million back. It was largely advertised as a net positive for the economy

This is incorrect, the official Vote Leave campaign focused very heavily on immigration and overall sovereignty. Remain was the campaign highlighting risks for the economy.

Of course the argument was made re: EU contributions staying "home" to be allocated domestically, but the economy was always shrugged away as a "necessary unknown to take back control"

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#46

Post by ece »

kev009 wrote: post #22
nostrademons wrote: post #13

It's almost like the academics who said that free-trade and globalization were net benefits to the economy were right , and then reversing globalization and shutting borders simply reverses those gains. The interesting part is that while the benefits of globalization were not evenly distributed (part of the reason for the populist backlash against it), reversing it does not seem to benefit the people who were harmed…

The term globalization is doing a lot of work in this comment, what does it mean to you?

I think in this context it would mean not stopping movement of labor to an extreme or having tariffs, but taxing the unequal gains and having social programs that help everyone keep up in an economy.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#47

Post by [deleted] »

nostrademons wrote: post #38
kev009 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The term globalization is doing a lot of work in this comment, what does it mean to you?

The idea that governments should get out of the way of free trade across borders , and that the policies they make only serve to make the economy less efficient. The backdrop for the economy should be the world , and not the nation . Within it, firms should feel free to transact with whoever gets the job done best.

[deleted]

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#49

Post by MattPalmer1086 »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #34
vrganj wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no making "the most" out of Brexit the same way there isn't a way to make "the most" out of sawing your own leg off. It was completely unforced self-mutilation. The fact they're still hobbling on is commendable, but it's still much worse than they would've been off otherwise.

That isn't true, and a ridiculous take. There are pros and cons to both being in and out of the EU.

Oh what are the pros again, I seem to have forgotten what the sunlit uplands were supposed to be like...?

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#50

Post by mytailorisrich »

Zigurd wrote: post #42
LikesPwsh wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Brexit harming the growth of both UK and EU is another perfectly valid interpretation of those numbers. I'm sure there's a little truth to both, and noise from all kinds of other factors.

It's not all noise. Being able to live, work, or study anywhere in the Schengen zone has tremendous value. But it doesn't show up in GDP numbers. Brexit harmed the young people of UK, and they hate it.

Regarding the UK specifically, very few people chose to study in the EU when they could while many in the EU wanted to study in the UK. British unis are a huge asset to the country that also brings a lot of money from foreign students. Same for young people wanting to come work in UK/London.

Frankly, I think the "harm" done to young British people is vastly overblown and more symbolic than actual.

Post reply on HN