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Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

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Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#91

Post by dyauspitr »

otherme123 wrote: post #68
mongol wrote: post #4

Who are likely to control Syria now? Will Syria become an islamic state?

If we look at what happened in Tunisia or Libya after they got rid of their secular dictators (Gadaffi an Ben Ali), it doesn't have to be that way. They were also fears of them becoming islamic states, yet they didn't. If we look at Egypt, they could become again a dictatorship.

Libya is pretty much an Islamist and borderline slaver nation now. It’s much, much worse than it was under gaddafi. Tunisia is the only place the Arab spring might have been tentatively “successful”.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#93

Post by ssijak »

j_maffe wrote: post #67
foooorsyth wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force Questionable statement. Syria has (had) a secular government that allowed Sunnis, Alawites, Christians, Druze Muslims, twelvers, and Kurds to live there. The status quo for the region is theocratic iron fist of a particular Islamic denomination, with all others persecuted. Not to mention, Assad is a Ba’athist (as was Sadam) which by definition is all about Arab unity. Which Su…

> a secular government that allowed ... to live there. "live" is a strong word to use there.

Yes, it must be much better now after all the devastation. Same with Lybia, much better place now, no?

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#94

Post by teractiveodular »

csomar wrote: post #72

[flagged]

While I'm a firm atheist, Assad jettisoned all pretense of Baathist/secular ideology a decade if not longer ago in favor of simply doing whatever it takes to stay in power. The atrocities perpetrated by Assad's regime were far larger in scale than anything that ISIS ever managed, half a million people (on all sides) have died since 2013.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#95

Post by tptacek »

hackandthink wrote: post #83
tptacek wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know that "what kind of news is it" is the right way to look at this. Things happen, without a reckoning of whether they are convenient or inconvenient to the most powerful military forces in the world. The people who just overthrew the Ba'athists are Salafists; their leader has (had?) a $10MM price on his head from the US for leading the al-Nusra front, which was (is?) al-Qaeda in Syria, and was almost a com…

I do not have a say in it. But I would prefer a democratic development to Salafist terrorism. I fear the worst, but it doesn't always have to be like this.

It is indeed as if the Nazis were overrun by ISIS, but the ISIS people are saying they're reformed and they're not going to do all the crazy shit ISIS did. On the other hand: look what was there before. Right?

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#96

Post by inglor_cz »

kdmtctl wrote: post #87
baserev wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

A little bit exaggerated. Nothing really happened yet.

The only Near East regime that served as a reliable Russian proxy and military base just collapsed. That's not "nothing".

Russian operations in Africa will be seriously complicated by the loss of Syria as a mid-point.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#97

Post by mandelken »

postingawayonhn wrote: post #22
ggm wrote: post #6

Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…

> * could this be bad for Ukraine? Possibly, but it also shows how weak Russia is and how limited their presence in Syria was (because they sent everything to Ukraine). Russia can be defeated in Ukraine, but the west will need to step up support.

Since the 2022 Russian invasion, the West has provided 200bn in aid to Ukraine [0]. And Russia has been winning on the ground lately. It seems the West is thinking more aid will not change the outcome, but only diplomacy will.

[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-...

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#98

Post by ssijak »

InfiniteVortex wrote: post #89

I’m shocked that the ruling dynasty fell as quickly as it did, along with the military being ineffective and unwilling to stop the rebels given how long the civil war has been going on for. Incredible.

Looks similar to USA withdrawal from Afghanistan. When big power withdrew support, whoever they were protecting just got run over in a week. Same here.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#99

Post by nozzlegear »

selivanovp wrote: post #57
bbor wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any regime change that involves freeing many thousands of women and children from prisons notorious for torture and mass-executions seems like a decent one! The future is uncertain, but it's not like "everyone chills out and gets into their hobbies" was an option -- it's gotta be one of the most war-ravaged places to exist in human history.

[flagged]

Just to be clear, you're talking about prisons like Sednaya, the infamous "Human Slaughterhouse?" The one where Assad imprisoned thousands of political opponents, journalists, military deserters, Muslim minorities and civilians, and then systematically tortured and executed those people?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sednaya_Prison

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#100

Post by tptacek »

foooorsyth wrote: post #58
throwup238 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force holding back worse players, he was a desperate despot just barely holding on to power thanks to a proxy war. Now the rest of the parties have a real chance to establishing a governing coalition. Syria has always been relatively secular and the rhetoric coming from the rebel side is in marked contrast to the usual pattern in the region. The most extremist group involved HTS has…

>Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force Questionable statement. Syria has (had) a secular government that allowed Sunnis, Alawites, Christians, Druze Muslims, twelvers, and Kurds to live there. The status quo for the region is theocratic iron fist of a particular Islamic denomination, with all others persecuted. Not to mention, Assad is a Ba’athist (as was Sadam) which by definition is all about Arab unity. Which Su…

That feels like a claim that might be news to the residents of Madaya, Yarmouk, Douma, and Idlib, right?
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