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Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

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Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#51

Post by postingawayonhn »

fooker wrote: post #42
postingawayonhn wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees. Yes, and this point has been obvious to many for the last two years. The problem has been the west drip feeding aid into the largest war since WW2. We actually have to define the objective as reclaiming all Ukranian territory (at least to the pre-2022 borders) and supply them appropriately. It might be expensive in the short-term but we can aff…

The purpose of the drip feeding is, unfortunately, to get Russia closer to a total collapse rather than a quick loss for them to retreat and build up their strength again for the next 20ish years to repeat it. It’s not ideal for Ukraine right now.

I have heard this argument before, but I'm not particularly convinced.

Either way pretty much all their pre-war modern equipment has already been destroyed. Now they're fighting with really old stuff like T-55s pulled from storage, newly manufactured equipment, or whatever North Korea thinks it can spare.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#52

Post by davidgay »

pugio wrote: post #44
joejohnson wrote: post #3

[flagged]

I haven't seen any indication that Israel plans on invading Syria, nor can I see a particular reason for them doing so.

Hmm - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golan_Heights ? [Not that I'd take this as having any new impact on the current situation, but...]

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#53

Post by postingawayonhn »

mongol wrote: post #4

Who are likely to control Syria now? Will Syria become an islamic state?

I think there is a good chance that reasonably fair elections get held. The government will likely take a moderate Islamic tone, with other religious groups coexisting. For now all the main players seem fairly chill.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#54

Post by kgeist »

joejohnson wrote: post #3

[flagged]

>The commander of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, says all state institutions will remain under the supervision of al-Assad’s prime minister until they are handed over officially.

Pretty unusual for a terrorist group

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#55

Post by refulgentis »

fooker wrote: post #42
postingawayonhn wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees. Yes, and this point has been obvious to many for the last two years. The problem has been the west drip feeding aid into the largest war since WW2. We actually have to define the objective as reclaiming all Ukranian territory (at least to the pre-2022 borders) and supply them appropriately. It might be expensive in the short-term but we can aff…

The purpose of the drip feeding is, unfortunately, to get Russia closer to a total collapse rather than a quick loss for them to retreat and build up their strength again for the next 20ish years to repeat it. It’s not ideal for Ukraine right now.

> The purpose of the drip feeding is, unfortunately,

Absolutely not, it's not intentional.

- Suddenly, the world defense base needed to get on up to a level to match the world's 5th largest army, with all its stockpiles -- regardless of if its just lil ol Ukraine, Russia is putting its full effort in.

- Politics in US delayed it several months, I can't recall the exact number, but it was at least 6.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#57

Post by selivanovp »

bbor wrote: post #28
throwup238 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force holding back worse players, he was a desperate despot just barely holding on to power thanks to a proxy war. Now the rest of the parties have a real chance to establishing a governing coalition. Syria has always been relatively secular and the rhetoric coming from the rebel side is in marked contrast to the usual pattern in the region. The most extremist group involved HTS has…

Any regime change that involves freeing many thousands of women and children from prisons notorious for torture and mass-executions seems like a decent one! The future is uncertain, but it's not like "everyone chills out and gets into their hobbies" was an option -- it's gotta be one of the most war-ravaged places to exist in human history.

[flagged]

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#58

Post by foooorsyth »

throwup238 wrote: post #21
ggm wrote: post #6

Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…

Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force holding back worse players, he was a desperate despot just barely holding on to power thanks to a proxy war. Now the rest of the parties have a real chance to establishing a governing coalition. Syria has always been relatively secular and the rhetoric coming from the rebel side is in marked contrast to the usual pattern in the region. The most extremist group involved HTS has…

>Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force

Questionable statement.

Syria has (had) a secular government that allowed Sunnis, Alawites, Christians, Druze Muslims, twelvers, and Kurds to live there. The status quo for the region is theocratic iron fist of a particular Islamic denomination, with all others persecuted.

Not to mention, Assad is a Ba’athist (as was Sadam) which by definition is all about Arab unity.

Which Sunni warlord group should we hand the country to now? Do you think things will be better? Can you name a single Syrian political figure or interest group (don’t Google!) that you would propose lead the country? Be honest with yourself.

>Almost seven million Syrian refugees might have he chance to return home and rebuild now

They’re not going back.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#59

Post by throwup238 »

kgeist wrote: post #2

It's interesting that everywhere, the government forces simply abandoned their posts, and none of Syria's allies appear to be willing to intervene in any way. Maybe there's something else going on we don't know yet.

> Maybe there's something else going on we don't know yet.

We know whats going on, the world was just focused elsewhere when this all started and suddenly spiraled.

Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham launched a run of the mill offensive on November 27 in retaliation to SAA attacks and it turned out to be so successful that the Kurdish SDF launched its own offensive on November 29 to take advantage of the situation. Within a week almost every rebel group joined in, the SAA lines of defense broke down, and Russian/Iranian/Hezbollah support disintegrated and evacuated from the country.

I wouldn’t be surprised if some intelligence agencies greased the wheels here but this was mostly dominoes suddenly falling thanks to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East sapping military resources and a single spark lighting the powder keg.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#60

Post by refulgentis »

otherme123 wrote: post #46
TheAlchemist wrote: post #5

I'm not really aware of what's going on in Syria, and not really sure who's worse - Assad or the rebels, but it seems clear that Iran & Russia, which were main backers of Assad regime, appears extremely weak. That's understandable for Iran which may want to avoid to overextend itself following the recent events, but it's hard to comprehend why Russia was unable to do anything at all. In any case, it seems like there…

> but it's hard to comprehend why Russia was unable to do anything at all. Russia is a country with a modest GDP. They are very close to Mexico or Brazil both in GDP and population. We wouldn't be surprised that Mexico couldn't hold multiple wars

Russia's military is about 4-5x the size in men and 10x the budget, and 10x compounded over years, and years, and years. What's a GDP? :)
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