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Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
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Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's what I'm thinking too. But if that's true, it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees. In any case, this seems like a major loss for Russia.
> it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees. Yes, and this point has been obvious to many for the last two years. The problem has been the west drip feeding aid into the largest war since WW2. We actually have to define the objective as reclaiming all Ukranian territory (at least to the pre-2022 borders) and supply them appropriately. It might be expensive in the short-term but we can aff…
The purpose of the drip feeding is, unfortunately, to get Russia closer to a total collapse rather than a quick loss for them to retreat and build up their strength again for the next 20ish years to repeat it.
It’s not ideal for Ukraine right now.
Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#43[flagged]
I would love for someone to explain to me why there is a cheering section for Bashar al-Assad. I understand what Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is. I can read a Wikipedia page. HTS: not great. Got it. But why am I supposed to believe the Syrian Ba'athists are (sorry, were) a fulcrum of peace in west Asia? Someone give me the pitch. Is it really all a fiendish plot to eliminate the meal of dinner?
Given how it played in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and to a less degree Tunisia, these revolutions have all been more catastrophic than the status quo.
Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#44[flagged]
I haven't seen any indication that Israel plans on invading Syria, nor can I see a particular reason for them doing so.
Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#45It's interesting that everywhere, the government forces simply abandoned their posts, and none of Syria's allies appear to be willing to intervene in any way. Maybe there's something else going on we don't know yet.
Syria's allies have been spending the last year getting thrashed. (Russia, Iran, Hizbollah)
Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#46I'm not really aware of what's going on in Syria, and not really sure who's worse - Assad or the rebels, but it seems clear that Iran & Russia, which were main backers of Assad regime, appears extremely weak. That's understandable for Iran which may want to avoid to overextend itself following the recent events, but it's hard to comprehend why Russia was unable to do anything at all. In any case, it seems like there…
> but it's hard to comprehend why Russia was unable to do anything at all.
Russia is a country with a modest GDP. They are very close to Mexico or Brazil both in GDP and population. We wouldn't be surprised that Mexico couldn't hold multiple wars
Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force holding back worse players, he was a desperate despot just barely holding on to power thanks to a proxy war. Now the rest of the parties have a real chance to establishing a governing coalition. Syria has always been relatively secular and the rhetoric coming from the rebel side is in marked contrast to the usual pattern in the region. The most extremist group involved HTS has…
Any regime change that involves freeing many thousands of women and children from prisons notorious for torture and mass-executions seems like a decent one! The future is uncertain, but it's not like "everyone chills out and gets into their hobbies" was an option -- it's gotta be one of the most war-ravaged places to exist in human history.
Have you heard of a thing called, Islamic State? They had a thing for creative murder. Aside from the usual behadings, they came up with things like pushing homosexuals from buildings in the public and alike. They are also now free again.
Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#48Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…
I don't know that "what kind of news is it" is the right way to look at this. Things happen, without a reckoning of whether they are convenient or inconvenient to the most powerful military forces in the world. The people who just overthrew the Ba'athists are Salafists; their leader has (had?) a $10MM price on his head from the US for leading the al-Nusra front, which was (is?) al-Qaeda in Syria, and was almost a component of ISIS (HTS => IS-Ish). It's not who most people on HN would pick to overthrow Assad! But then again: why would any of us have a say in who overthrew Assad?
Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#49This is a huge blow for the russian regime. Things are really starting to look bad over there. We might see a second collapse in 2026. Putin has destroyed a country.
Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family
#50Nassim Taleb (in Lebanon not far from Homs right now):
"The strangest thing is that after 14 years of war, the Syrian rebels walked into the entire country faster than if they were on a tourist sightseeing tour. Except at the beginning, there was no fighting."
(from his X Account)