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Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

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Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#21

Post by throwup238 »

ggm wrote: post #6

Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…

Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force holding back worse players, he was a desperate despot just barely holding on to power thanks to a proxy war. Now the rest of the parties have a real chance to establishing a governing coalition. Syria has always been relatively secular and the rhetoric coming from the rebel side is in marked contrast to the usual pattern in the region. The most extremist group involved HTS has been surpsingly moderate in its stewardship of the Idlib governate.

There are reasons to interpret this as very good news: Iran and Russia no longer have enough resources to project power. Even with a warm water port and strategic position in the Mediterranean at stake, they just can’t prop up the regime anymore. I can’t help but think that two fewer regional powers meddling in Syrian affairs is nothing but a stabilizing force.

Almost seven million Syrian refugees might have the chance to return home and rebuild now. That’s great news.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#22

Post by postingawayonhn »

ggm wrote: post #6

Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…

> * could this be bad for Ukraine?

Possibly, but it also shows how weak Russia is and how limited their presence in Syria was (because they sent everything to Ukraine). Russia can be defeated in Ukraine, but the west will need to step up support.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#24

Post by taspeotis »

kgeist wrote: post #2

It's interesting that everywhere, the government forces simply abandoned their posts, and none of Syria's allies appear to be willing to intervene in any way. Maybe there's something else going on we don't know yet.

Russia might have helped out if their military wasn’t busy elsewhere?

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#27

Post by doshaa »

samaltmanfried wrote: post #23

[flagged]

This is extremely reductive, the asaad regime ( current and previous ) had to go, they've caused immense pain to syrians since the 80s.. The idea that this is some consorted effort by global hegemony to topple them ignores the effort of the rebels themselves, and how much the war in ukraine have costed russia..

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#28

Post by bbor »

throwup238 wrote: post #21
ggm wrote: post #6

Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * doe…

Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force holding back worse players, he was a desperate despot just barely holding on to power thanks to a proxy war. Now the rest of the parties have a real chance to establishing a governing coalition. Syria has always been relatively secular and the rhetoric coming from the rebel side is in marked contrast to the usual pattern in the region. The most extremist group involved HTS has…

Any regime change that involves freeing many thousands of women and children from prisons notorious for torture and mass-executions seems like a decent one! The future is uncertain, but it's not like "everyone chills out and gets into their hobbies" was an option -- it's gotta be one of the most war-ravaged places to exist in human history.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#29

Post by postingawayonhn »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #14
sydd wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is putting everything it has to the Ukrainian front since 2.5 years and signs of exhaustion are clearly visible. They have lived up their Soviet tank reserves, are offering astronomical amounts of money for soldiers, are using north Korean ammunition, huge inflation etc

That's what I'm thinking too. But if that's true, it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees. In any case, this seems like a major loss for Russia.

> it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees.

Yes, and this point has been obvious to many for the last two years.

The problem has been the west drip feeding aid into the largest war since WW2. We actually have to define the objective as reclaiming all Ukranian territory (at least to the pre-2022 borders) and supply them appropriately. It might be expensive in the short-term but we can afford it, can seize the $300B of Russian assets, and will be able to reduce our defensive forces in the future use to the reduced Russian threat.

The problem now is that we may have run out of time with Ukraine experiencing significant manpower issues. They could mobilise a lot more people, but that will mean women and younger men (currently only 25+) from a generation that is already very thin.

We can ask Ukraine to do this, but we they will need an ironclad commitment that we will supply them with everything they ask for.

Re: Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

#30

Post by tptacek »

samaltmanfried wrote: post #23

[flagged]

I would love for someone to explain to me why there is a cheering section for Bashar al-Assad. I understand what Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is. I can read a Wikipedia page. HTS: not great. Got it. But why am I supposed to believe the Syrian Ba'athists are (sorry, were) a fulcrum of peace in west Asia? Someone give me the pitch. Is it really all a fiendish plot to eliminate the meal of dinner?
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