>Imagine shorting USDT on Binance. What happens if you’re right and USDT goes to zero? Do you really think Binance will still be around to pay you?
Tether's collapse will be to Mt. Gox what Little Boy was to a firecracker.
Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
91–100 of 226 posts
Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#92Earlier quoted context omitted.
Silk road days are gone. Ulbrich got disproportionately punished + convicted on very very dubious hired gun charges. Since then a similar approach was applied on almost every darknet marketplace around, resulting in that these days with BTC at ATH the darknet marketplaces are at an all-time crisis (even though legacy media is still pushing the "criminal's money" narrative :/). Not to mention that all the major mining…
> Ulbrich got [...] convicted on very very dubious hired gun charges. No, he didn't. He got convicted of money laundering, conspiracy to commit computer hacking, and conspiracy to traffic narcotics. Evidence related to the alleged murder for hire scheme was presented at trial and was weighed in the sentencing phase in terms of what sentence he got within the range authorized for the crimes he was convicted of, but he…
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Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#93I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.
I’m far more selfish, I would just like to hear amateur investors stop talking about it. I’d really like for people to stop suggesting a database (blockchain) will fix any problem, even when problems are explicitly not database issues. I think we’re well past either of those things being possibilities though.
If Silicon Valley was filmed today, their disrupt parody would include “we’re making a world a better place by using blockchain for database”, instead of Paxos (https://youtu.be/B8C5sjjhsso)
Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#94This analysis is flawed. People are paying a premium in the futures market to have exposure to BTC without having to acquire and hold physical bitcoins. There is a similar trend in other regulated exchange products like GBTC https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_na...
> physical bitcoins
Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's primary purpose is a store of value that can't be manipulated by the government. It's succeeding wildly at this. There's a lot of extreme Bitcoin hate on this site, but BTC is helping a ton of people right now, as evidenced by the rapidly increasing demand and money flowing into Bitcoin investment.
It was never meant to be a value store. First sentence of the whitepaper: "A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution".
I'm talking about what Bitcoin is, not what the white paper speculated it could become. Descriptive vs. prescriptive.
Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#96Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe we can focus on crypto that doesn't have such high electricity demands for that purpose.
Given that the current world exchange currency requires 43 aircraft carriers and 6,185 nuclear warheads (+ all the support they need, thousands of very worhtwhile human lives a year, etc), any electricity consumption seems a small problem. Not to mention that the oil-to-electricity transition would require ridiculous investments anyway.
Is the hypothesis that the U.S. switching to Bitcoin as legal tender would let it liquidate its military?
Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#97A blog by a guy going by Trolly, that can't even properly set up HTTPS, and admits he makes things up in the headerline means absolutely nothing. Tether has been involved in shady dealings for a long time. Last bull run people like this guy were claiming it was all going to blow up and tether was worthless etc etc etc. That never happened. This hysteria is very common for nocoiners, why are they so worried about my w…
> why are they so worried about my worthless bitcorbs?
Can we reasonably infer that you have a financial stake in Bitcoin?
Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#98> contango for financial products isn’t normal, is that you can arbitrage it very easily, as you don’t have storage costs This is a bit hand wavy. Holding Bitcoin has real administrative and compliance costs for financial players in a position to sell Bitcoin futures. Particularly since, to do this properly, you’d need to be trading on the referenced cryptocurrency exchanges. Also, I don’t think that default probabil…
Yeah. There are storage costs. Primarily the counterparty risk associated with current custody solutions.
Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#99I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.
Silk road days are gone. Ulbrich got disproportionately punished + convicted on very very dubious hired gun charges. Since then a similar approach was applied on almost every darknet marketplace around, resulting in that these days with BTC at ATH the darknet marketplaces are at an all-time crisis (even though legacy media is still pushing the "criminal's money" narrative :/). Not to mention that all the major mining…
Ulbrich was never convicted of a violent crime. (Though plenty of evidence did show he tried to commit murder-for-hire.) He was convicted of money laundering, conspiracy to commit computer hacking, and conspiracy to traffic narcotics.[1] For this he was sentenced to two life sentences plus 40 years.
> Not to mention that all the major mining pools have voluntarily chosen to collaborate with governments on censoring the blockchain, etc.
What do you mean by this?
Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#100Bitcoin in itself is quite useful, it’s something people will exchange for usd or things of value which the gov can’t censor or directly police.
Bitcoin’s price is determined by zero fundamentals, so it will swing wildly if you zoom Out enough, forever. That’s why if you ask me it makes logical sense to have 1-10% Of the portfolio betting long or short, because it has a much better than 1 in 10 chances of going x10 or -90% in relatively short timeframe. I didn’t backtest it but looking at a chart it looks like there are those many-sigma shifts every 2 years.
To that extent, if you’re interested in betting on it, you might want to use option contracts and make sure your max loss is fixed at the premium and the upside is unlimited.