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Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

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Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#22
@dang, you should think about adding a disclaimer to every crypto-related submission, just regex the title with the typical key words to catch them, with something like:

Be aware that crypto-related submissions like this one might be intended to trigger or influence a wanted market behavior by OP.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#23
post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

Gold doesn't have earnings releases either.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#24

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

Silk road days are gone. Ulbrich got disproportionately punished + convicted on very very dubious hired gun charges. Since then a similar approach was applied on almost every darknet marketplace around, resulting in that these days with BTC at ATH the darknet marketplaces are at an all-time crisis (even though legacy media is still pushing the "criminal's money" narrative :/). Not to mention that all the major mining pools have voluntarily chosen to collaborate with governments on censoring the blockchain, etc.

Let's hope it is just a side-step given that BTC with censorship/regulation is just a breaking of a glass-wall away from perfectly free monetary unit.

P.S. If you are looking to get no-KYC truly anonymous BTC you'd better live in a top-10 city (e.g. Prague), because in a top-100 city (e.g. Sofia) it is not quite straight-forward and takes tons of waiting/selecting.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#25
A blog by a guy going by Trolly, that can't even properly set up HTTPS, and admits he makes things up in the headerline means absolutely nothing. Tether has been involved in shady dealings for a long time. Last bull run people like this guy were claiming it was all going to blow up and tether was worthless etc etc etc. That never happened. This hysteria is very common for nocoiners, why are they so worried about my worthless bitcorns?

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#26
What’s interesting is that the fact that this story is gaining traction might make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. That’s the danger and stress of pure-momentum trading, which crypto basically is. It’s full on gambling. I tapped out early 2018 because the gains were not worth the interminable regrets of missing out, the constant worry that some country on the other side of the world would move the market as I slept, the increasing influence of troll/alt-right culture in the community, the insane hyperfocus that coding technical indicators on TradingView would cause, etc.

Anyone who is fresh on the scene or still hodling, god bless you, you have stronger hands than I.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#28
post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

The problem with belief is that the Bitcoin price only raises when you find new people who believe in it to put more money into it.

As soon as the BTC market reaches maximum penetration and no new buyers can be found, Bitcoin becomes price stable. And once price stability is reached, because the price isn't appreciating anymore, people will want to start spending their earnings. And as BTC in particular isn't actually that good as a currency, people need to turn their BTC into fiat in order to realise their value and spend them.

And then suddenly... there aren't any buyers and it crashes.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#29
post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

Bitcoin isn’t likely to be banned. Might as well ban World of Warcraft gold while you’re at it.

Clearly it has value as a speculative vehicle and as a systemic risk hedge (like Gold). Whether it can become a true currency is still debatable. Its infrastructure feels more like selling stock or bonds today.

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