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Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

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Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#71

Post by Tepix »

jMyles wrote: post #11
bhouston wrote: post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

> I could see it being banned by the US government and others... It's difficult to imagine this causing the price to go any direction other than up.

I believe the opposite to be accurate, as we have seen in the past.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#73

Post by solean »

marricks wrote: post #32

Don't know if anyone else made this mistake but: author is not saying bitcoin will 50/50 collapse tonight just some night this year. > So the next time someone tries to explain to you that “Bitcoin is a store of value”, when the chances of it getting utterly destroyed overnight before the year is over are around 50/50, try not to shoot coffee through your nose laughing. EDIT: Not saying I agree with the prediction, i…

What are the odds of a 50/50 yoy event not happening for 11 years straight?

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#74

Post by llcoolv »

goda90 wrote: post #27
aminozuur wrote: post #14

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

Maybe we can focus on crypto that doesn't have such high electricity demands for that purpose.

Given that the current world exchange currency requires 43 aircraft carriers and 6,185 nuclear warheads (+ all the support they need, thousands of very worhtwhile human lives a year, etc), any electricity consumption seems a small problem. Not to mention that the oil-to-electricity transition would require ridiculous investments anyway.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#75

Post by bhouston »

Closi wrote: post #28
bhouston wrote: post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

The problem with belief is that the Bitcoin price only raises when you find new people who believe in it to put more money into it. As soon as the BTC market reaches maximum penetration and no new buyers can be found, Bitcoin becomes price stable. And once price stability is reached, because the price isn't appreciating anymore, people will want to start spending their earnings. And as BTC in particular isn't actuall…

The stock market continues to go up even though its adoption is already widespread. The reason is that governments continue to print USD, and other currencies, which they get invested, re-loaded out, etc. I expect that this can continue in Bitcoin as well for quite some time if there continues to be a shared belief in its intrinsic value.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#76

Post by solosoyokaze »

fanciestManimal wrote: post #65
solosoyokaze wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has a social network effect of people who agree that it's the store of value for the future. Your paper dollar bill has very little intrinsic value. It's just a shared acceptance.

So I own some crypto too, but the dollar has a much larger social network effect of people who agree it's the store of value for the future, no? So does the Euro. It's a bit weird that you would claim that bitcoin's intrinsic value is that it's a store of value, but then deny the same reality for other traditional currencies.

I don't think that's true at all. Inflation of fiat is widely accepted as people know more gets printed all the time. You know your dollar will be worth less next year due to inflation. This is why people invest in interest baring accounts and stocks. Dollars by themselves lose money over time.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#77

Post by loceng »

desmap wrote: post #22

@dang, you should think about adding a disclaimer to every crypto-related submission, just regex the title with the typical key words to catch them, with something like: Be aware that crypto-related submissions like this one might be intended to trigger or influence a wanted market behavior by OP.

Also @dang, should require every user to add a tag/label that will show us if they are a Bitcoin speculator/owner, and would be great if then upvotes/downvotes had a stat that was viewable to see what % of upvotes/downvotes posts or comments have are by those who are financially incentivized for Bitcoin to succeed.

Edit to add: what are the odds this comment would be downvoted in a Bitcoin thread? Would be great to see the bias of upvote/downvoters and commenters in Bitcoin threads, then can have 2 thread columns: top comments for those who own Bitcoin, and top comments for those who don't own Bitcoin; obviously it'd an honour system and could be gamed.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#78

Post by Tepix »

eimrine wrote: post #59
marricks wrote: post #32

Don't know if anyone else made this mistake but: author is not saying bitcoin will 50/50 collapse tonight just some night this year. > So the next time someone tries to explain to you that “Bitcoin is a store of value”, when the chances of it getting utterly destroyed overnight before the year is over are around 50/50, try not to shoot coffee through your nose laughing. EDIT: Not saying I agree with the prediction, i…

What probability to meet a dinosaur walking next to your house? It is 50%, either you will meet it or not.

If you accept bets, I'm sure the odds won't be 50/50 as they are here.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#79

Post by afavour »

solosoyokaze wrote: post #37
aminozuur wrote: post #14

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

It's primary purpose is a store of value that can't be manipulated by the government. It's succeeding wildly at this. There's a lot of extreme Bitcoin hate on this site, but BTC is helping a ton of people right now, as evidenced by the rapidly increasing demand and money flowing into Bitcoin investment.

> BTC is helping a ton of people right now, as evidenced by the rapidly increasing demand and money flowing into Bitcoin investment.

Not making a judgement either way on BTC's success but what you've highlighted there isn't evidence. An artificially inflated market based on speculation would show the exact same signs.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#80

Post by fullshark »

A lot of comments here attacking this guy's name or things totally tangential to the meat of the post: simply plugging in some numbers into a financial formula to estimate the market's implied probability of these BTC exchanges going bust.

A lot of people here probably have BTC in their own wallets so don't care but the current btc exchanges (binance/coinbase etc) collapsing like mt. gox did would not be good for BTC in the short run at the very least.

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