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Officials: Dozens at WA nursing facility show possible coronavirus symptoms

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Re: Officials: Dozens at WA nursing facility show possible coronavirus symptoms

#91

Post by mlyle »

chachachoney wrote: post #79
yingw787 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve heard symptoms relate less with age and more with viral load. The sicker other people are and the more frequently you come in contact with them, the more lethal it becomes. I’m checking reddit r/COVID19, which is a science based discussion forum with cited academic papers and flaired scientists. It started turning into a prepper forum but I think the mods are shutting that down pretty quickly. I go there for my…

>> I’ve heard symptoms relate less with age and more with viral load. The sicker other people are and the more frequently you come in contact with them, the more lethal it becomes. Are you sure that's accurate? I'm not disputing that as viral load increases, so do symptoms, and ability to infect others. However, I'm finding it hard to model a scenario in which a virus is already replicating in one's system and extern…

> However, I'm finding it hard to model a scenario in which a virus is already replicating in one's system and external exposure to comparitively infinitesimal amounts of the same virus has an impact. Do you have any actual evidence to present which backs up your claims?

Who really knows, but there are genetic diversity effects in other diseases. We also know that being exposed to a tiny initial viral load has a better prognosis with many diseases than a massive one (including with past SARS).

Doctors could be facing a "quadruple whammy"-- a disproportionate share of the worst strains (because they're meeting the most ill patients; exposure to greater viral loads; exposure to many patients with many slight variants of the disease; and sleep deprivation and overwork causing minor immune suppression.

But in the end, this is all speculation.

Re: Officials: Dozens at WA nursing facility show possible coronavirus symptoms

#92

Post by bsaul »

navels wrote: post #62
bsaul wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

don't know why you got downvoted. I have yet to see the opinion of a doctor explaining why this virus requires specific measures compared to other types of flu-like viruses ( hint: friend working in a hospital recently told me doctors there are amazed by the frenzy on this topic, that looks to them exactly the same as other kinds of flu). It seems politics are forced to take the same kind of exceptional measures as i…

The King County press conference today included a Q&A where this very question was asked ("why this virus requires specific measures compared to other types of flu-like viruses"). According to Dr. Francis Riedo, Medical Director of Infection Control and Prevention at EvergreenHealth, to paraphrase, "The difference between this Novel Coronavirus and Influenza is (1) there is no innate immunity, it is a completely vuln…

I'm not even sure what this "no innate immunity" sentence means. Old and fragile people are getting vaccined for flu every year, because they aren't immuned to the new strain of the year.

Now it is true that old and fragile people should be worried about coronavirus, but judging from death rates, it doesn't seem more deadly than the flu. So why put fear in the whole population ?

also, most people only experience nothing more than a cold symptoms. Which means most people actually have an immune system able to fight this virus quite efficiently.

Re: Officials: Dozens at WA nursing facility show possible coronavirus symptoms

#93

Post by adrianmonk »

baq wrote: post #39
wolco wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure this is the reason. Not being honest about it is a problem.

Why didn’t they buy working kits from other countries though? They had weeks to do that.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's just bad project management.

You know how, when you really need to something accomplished without delay, you pursue two paths in parallel, so that by the time phase 1 comes to a close, you've got things ready for phase 2? Well, maybe the CDC doesn't.

Obviously they do on some level because they did develop kits (which had problems, which delayed them). But it's one thing to give lip service to getting started on stuff you're going to need in the near future, and it's another thing to commit to it and follow through with it and make sure it happens.

Also, I'm sure they were super busy and had other priorities, but lack of testing means the country is flying blind, so this should have made the short list of priorities.

Re: Officials: Dozens at WA nursing facility show possible coronavirus symptoms

#94

Post by navels »

bsaul wrote: post #92
navels wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The King County press conference today included a Q&A where this very question was asked ("why this virus requires specific measures compared to other types of flu-like viruses"). According to Dr. Francis Riedo, Medical Director of Infection Control and Prevention at EvergreenHealth, to paraphrase, "The difference between this Novel Coronavirus and Influenza is (1) there is no innate immunity, it is a completely vuln…

I'm not even sure what this "no innate immunity" sentence means. Old and fragile people are getting vaccined for flu every year, because they aren't immuned to the new strain of the year. Now it is true that old and fragile people should be worried about coronavirus, but judging from death rates, it doesn't seem more deadly than the flu. So why put fear in the whole population ? also, most people only experience noth…

Where are you getting your information? According to the Chinese CDC it is 20 times more deadly than the flu. And why does "most people only experience nothing more than a cold symptoms" imply that they "have an immune system able to fight this virus quite efficiently"? Younger and non-vulnerable people have gotten extremely sick (and died), one theory being that the more of the actual virus you are exposed to the more severe your symptoms.

Re: Officials: Dozens at WA nursing facility show possible coronavirus symptoms

#95

Post by rabboRubble »

waynecochran wrote: post #2

How do you differentiate influenza from covid-19? These folks probably just have the flu. I live in WA state and I had the worst case of the flu I can remember about 3 weeks ago. Did I have covid-19? No way to really know.

most elderly are vaccinated against seasonal influenza, particularly those in a managed home like that.

Re: Officials: Dozens at WA nursing facility show possible coronavirus symptoms

#96

Post by s_y_n_t_a_x »

drozak wrote: post #87
s_y_n_t_a_x wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The total number of cases in each country indicates otherwise. Currently compared to every other country on Earth, we have quarantined it the best. Even if you assume there are some undetected cases in the US (which is likely), it's still not even close. It WILL spread across America, it's just a matter of time. You are speculating that the CDC will not be able to handle it. Take a step back and calm down. Maybe eval…

>> Take a step back and calm down. Maybe evaluate where you get your news and why they are trying to fear monger. Press conferences held by US leadership seem to indicate that they're not well prepared for an actual crisis, but are prepared to play politics with one. This does not bode well.

I guess we haven't been watching the same press conferences.

Care to elaborate what you had issue with?

Re: Officials: Dozens at WA nursing facility show possible coronavirus symptoms

#97

Post by craftinator »

belltaco wrote: post #41
aazaa wrote: post #27

From another story on the nursing home outbreak: > "If we had the ability to test earlier, I'm sure we would have identified patients earlier," he [a Washington State health official] said. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/485302-officials-annou... This is a pattern playing out with striking regularity: 1. Local authorities can't test for themselves. 2. CDC adjudicates testing requests, rejects many (most) of th…

We had so long to mobilize a lot of resources for this, and test every person with flu-like illnesses, and isolate them. CDC releasing broken testing kits and limiting use of testing. And then the President calling it a hoax made up to make him look bad, and forcing all statements from federal health authorities to go through the VP. Isn't this exactly how the situation got so bad in Wuhan in the first place? Authori…

> If there was a big outbreak in WA, do you think the US, as a democracy, could shutdown all airports, roads and rail at the state border?

This is why the WA governor called a state of emergency. With that action, the state level government gains some pretty un-Democratic powers, such as mobilizing the National Guard for martial actions. I think that it would take them a while, and not be perfect, but eventually they could shut down most external transportation.

Re: Officials: Dozens at WA nursing facility show possible coronavirus symptoms

#98

Post by craftinator »

s_y_n_t_a_x wrote: post #78
craftinator wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You assert that numbers mean a lot. You also state that appropriate testing is being done. What number of tests need to be administered to attain an appropriately sized population for statistical analysis? The answer to this is a LOT MORE than the ~3500 tests that have been conducted in the US over the last month. We already have people testing positive who have not travelled overseas and have not come into contact w…

> So the quarantine in the US has failed, and we have no idea how badly. No one ever suggested it was never going to spread in America. The quarantine was to TRY to prevent it from getting here, but you can only do so much. Once it is here we will treat it. There are plenty procedures in place since 9/11 to handle these things properly. The longer we held the quarantine the more time we had to prepare. We've done rea…

> No one ever suggested it was never going to spread in America. The quarantine was to TRY to prevent it from getting here, but you can only do so much.

In an earlier post you wrote, "There's less testing overall because there's less risk because the US government quarantined it so well." If the US government did so well at quarantine that they didn't need to do any surveillance testing, how is it now spreading outside of quarantine? Your statement is an assertion that the government has stopped it from spreading, by the logic that they wouldn't need to test outside of quarantine. So yeah, you did suggest it.

> Once it is here we will treat it. There are plenty procedures in place since 9/11 to handle these things properly.

There is no treatment that is known to work. There are four or five that are, or are approaching, clinical trials. The one that looks most promising to me is being used in a trial in Wuhan.

> The longer we held the quarantine the more time we had to prepare. We've done really well thanks to the early travel bans that the media was against.

We have no idea when the quarantine broke. We just know we've had several cases of people in hospitals who were sick and had no clue who they got it from. It could have been a single carrier, or they could be representing a thousand people who are just beginning to develop flu-like symptoms... We just don't know. Not enough data.

> > Paranoia is warranted at this point.

> Stop fear mongering.

I will monger fear when I think it's necessary; an illness that doubles the number of infected every 6 days, has no cure or treatment, has a death rate higher than swine flu, and takes a median of 4.5 days to even show symptoms scares the hell out of me, and it should scare the hell out of you too. And if you think the government "has this under control", you've obviously never worked for them. I did for nearly a decade, and they take months to get their heads out of their asses.

Re: Officials: Dozens at WA nursing facility show possible coronavirus symptoms

#99

Post by craftinator »

s_y_n_t_a_x wrote: post #74
PeterisP wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there's less risk because the US government quarantined it so well. Can you elaborate on that? Up to now everything shows that US government did not quarantine it very well, the chances for early testing and isolation of early cases were missed because of too restricted testing, and now we're getting severe patients who did not have any travel history, so they've been infected somewhere on US soil a week or two ago…

The total number of cases in each country indicates otherwise. Currently compared to every other country on Earth, we have quarantined it the best. Even if you assume there are some undetected cases in the US (which is likely), it's still not even close. It WILL spread across America, it's just a matter of time. You are speculating that the CDC will not be able to handle it. Take a step back and calm down. Maybe eval…

> The total number of cases in each country indicates otherwise.

The number of cases in the US is wrong. We know it's wrong because if it was right, we wouldn't have cases stemming from unknown sources.

> Currently compared to every other country on Earth, we have quarantined it the best.

No. We've put our collective heads in the sand, and hidden from testing any significant number of people.

> It WILL spread across America, it's just a matter of time.

This is the outcome of a bad quarantine.

> You are speculating that the CDC will not be able to handle it.

The CDC has already mishandled it. They created red tape making the criteria for administering testing very narrow. They coerced medical establishments to only use their test kits, rather than being able to pick from known working kits proven elsewhere in the world. Then, the kits they issued were flawed, and they forbade medical professionals from administering them. They have literally done nothing right yet. Have you seen their official webpage on Covid-19? It doesn't even describe the common chain of symptoms; instead it has multiple bullet points about Covid-19 Stigma... You get better and more complete information from reddit.

Re: Officials: Dozens at WA nursing facility show possible coronavirus symptoms

#100

Post by s_y_n_t_a_x »

craftinator wrote: post #99
s_y_n_t_a_x wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The total number of cases in each country indicates otherwise. Currently compared to every other country on Earth, we have quarantined it the best. Even if you assume there are some undetected cases in the US (which is likely), it's still not even close. It WILL spread across America, it's just a matter of time. You are speculating that the CDC will not be able to handle it. Take a step back and calm down. Maybe eval…

> The total number of cases in each country indicates otherwise. The number of cases in the US is wrong. We know it's wrong because if it was right, we wouldn't have cases stemming from unknown sources. > Currently compared to every other country on Earth, we have quarantined it the best. No. We've put our collective heads in the sand, and hidden from testing any significant number of people. > It WILL spread across…

> The number of cases in the US is wrong. We know it's wrong because if it was right, we wouldn't have cases stemming from unknown sources.

We know they are from other countries that weren't able to get their quarantine under control. Iran and South Korea. Flights from SK were banned this Saturday morning. Flights from Iran were already banned, but now those coming from Canada and other countries that have been in Iran can no longer enter either.

> This is the outcome of a bad quarantine.

So you agree that case numbers matter and the US has dealt with it the best so far, because it's spread across the world much more prevalent than here.

> You get better and more complete information from reddit.

Your reaction makes a lot of sense now.

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