Anybody have the statistics on infertility rates to compare? I'm specifically interested in biological infertility, excluding people who choose not to have children.
US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
91–100 of 434 posts
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#92Earlier quoted context omitted.
Immigrants to the US have the same level of college completion as natives: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/03/key-findings...
Illegal immigrants usually do not (under the table, off the books unskilled labor), and are in the US in large numbers (millions). Not a sleight, just facts.
Also, a fact is that illegal immigrants are willing to work for dirt-cheap which subsidizes our produce price. :)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/in-an-immigrat...
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
See Japan and Italy....
Japan is a prosperous high HDI nation. They have clearly decided that making bankers happy is not worth sacrificing their national identity by inviting mass immigration. They may not appear to be "winning" to those who measure civilizational success by the quarter but I bet their way wins out in the long run.
> They may not appear to be "winning" to those who measure civilizational success by the quarter but I bet their way wins out in the long run.
I'll bet the opposite. The long run is really long and if your population is in decline then you either up the numbers or sooner or later it will be game over for your branch of the tree.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
We can change our economic structures. We can't change the fact that exponential growth is unsustainable. So this way at least there is hope.
Replacement level fertility is by definition non-exponential (or if you prefer, has an exponent of 1.) A reasonable number of macroeconomists would be ok with replacement-level fertility. The economics get really bad when the birth rate falls below replacement though - you get fewer workers supporting more retirees, which has the bad consequences you can see now in Japan.
What are the bad consequences in Japan besides flat growth?
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't see the value in large numbers of unskilled workers entering the US every year. With a potentially large wave of automation coming, the US shouldn't straddled itself with lots of unemployable drivers, farm workers, etc. I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example.
> I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example. We have a decent immigration system in terms of getting the right kinds of advanced folks. The problem is we are also unwilling to do what needs to be done to stem the tide of unskilled illegal labor that flows into the nation.
The biggest counter argument I hear, regularly, is that the "tide" of illegal labor you speak of is NECESSARY.
Who will pick strawberries? Who will clean your hotel room? Etc.
It's the classic who will do "X" dirty job argument.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#96Earlier quoted context omitted.
Then why is Germany, Sweden, Spain, Japan, Finland etc significantly below the US?
Historically, children generated profit. These days, in developed countries, children are expensive. They cost money and time (e.g., years that you would otherwise spend going to school, building a career).
These days, in developed countries, children are expensive.
Sure, but they're far cheaper in both Sweden and Finland than in the US, yet people are still having fewer children there, so it can't simply be a cost issue.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#97Earlier quoted context omitted.
Costs in terms of time and money. In the past, kids could work on the farm or in a factory and generate money, now you have to send them to daycare and buy them toys and they cost money. Previously, more people would jump straight out of high school into blue collar jobs and raising families. Now, men and women are delaying kids to focus on college and building a career. And mothers would more often stay home to rais…
In the past, kids were essentially indentured servants/slaves in other words.
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Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
Europe did the same in importing large numbers of Muslim laborers after WW2. The hope was that they'd either make their money and go back home, or culturally integrate. Many observers will say that neither happened and there's now a difficult social problem in many countries like France.
America integrated large immigrant waves in it's past, and I doubt anyone would say the Italians, or Irish, or other minorities were not integrated today. Time bridges cultures, and we're the better for it.
Italians, Irish, and most of the other immigrants from that time were Europeans who had a lot in common with Americans culturally.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#99Huh, I did a blog post about this just last night. Basically, people's personality has an impact on whether they have kids, personality is heritable, fertility won't be low forever given current conditions but who knows how conditions will change. http://hopefullyintersting.blogspot.com/2018/05/falling-fert...
> Basically, people's personality has an impact on whether they have kids,
Maybe you address in your post, but as stated this doesn't make a lot of sense. Fertility is falling across all demographics and in all developed countries and has been for decades – are you saying everybody everywhere has experienced a personality shift over that time?
And while fertility probably does have some genetic component, I think that's a small piece of it compared to prevailing economic conditions (having kids is friggin expensive and this generation is deeply in debt) and social mores (whether there's powerful religions pressure to have kids). Genetics neither explains this nor provides a way out of it.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#100Student loans, housing costs, job prospects, healthcare, childcare. People are making a rational decision to avoid children they can’t afford. We as a society need to re-examine the causes of rising costs of essentials so reproduction is no longer financially infeasible.
Then why is Germany, Sweden, Spain, Japan, Finland etc significantly below the US?
At least in Germany, birth rates have been growing significantly in recent 3 years. And no, it is not just immigrants, it's about everyone. I think this is an effect of the many children/parent friendly laws that have been introduced by the government over the last 10 years. Laws seldom change a society over night, but their effects take some time to be visible.