What are the economic ramifications of fertility rate being below the replacement level?
Retirement ponzi structure won't hold.
US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
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Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#12Student loans, housing costs, job prospects, healthcare, childcare. People are making a rational decision to avoid children they can’t afford. We as a society need to re-examine the causes of rising costs of essentials so reproduction is no longer financially infeasible.
Exactly. If you think about it, most species reproduce when resources are abundant, and stop reproducing when resources become scarce. That's basically what is happening to young people here.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#13This makes me super happy and super scared. Happy because we have plenty of people on Earth and in the US. We don't need more people. Scared because so many of our economic structures assume infinite population growth.
We can change our economic structures. We can't change the fact that exponential growth is unsustainable. So this way at least there is hope.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#14Student loans, housing costs, job prospects, healthcare, childcare. People are making a rational decision to avoid children they can’t afford. We as a society need to re-examine the causes of rising costs of essentials so reproduction is no longer financially infeasible.
Then why is Germany, Sweden, Spain, Japan, Finland etc significantly below the US?
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#15Student loans, housing costs, job prospects, healthcare, childcare. People are making a rational decision to avoid children they can’t afford. We as a society need to re-examine the causes of rising costs of essentials so reproduction is no longer financially infeasible.
Right in that bucket and don't think I'll ever afford being able to rear a child from a financial position of "comfort". Savings to the hilt but it's a cash flow problem.
I also don't want to leave my wife and I without a child but all I envision are bars of my own making.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#16What are the economic ramifications of fertility rate being below the replacement level?
For the time being, immigration is still causing the millennial generation to increase and is the reason why US population continues to grow. So for at least the US the result is that we may not face the same problems as other developed countries or the problem of an aging population may be reduced.
It will cause the US to continue to be a nation of immigrants and the resentment that may cause.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#17Interesting... How many people here would say that they have actively decided not to have children? I am just curious.
Me (25 y.o east coast male, long-term relationship, no debt but decided due to other factors)
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#18As half of a thirty somethings couple that wants children but can’t afford the financial implications in the Bay Area, it seems pretty clear to me why fertility is down.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#19What are the economic ramifications of fertility rate being below the replacement level?
There are also military ramifications. If we get into a big skirmish with China, they will overwhelm us with soldiers and high-volume weapon manufacturing capability.
Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
#20Student loans, housing costs, job prospects, healthcare, childcare. People are making a rational decision to avoid children they can’t afford. We as a society need to re-examine the causes of rising costs of essentials so reproduction is no longer financially infeasible.
Exactly. If you think about it, most species reproduce when resources are abundant, and stop reproducing when resources become scarce. That's basically what is happening to young people here.
It's the opposite with humans. 3rd world/developing countries have extremely high birth rates. The best mechanism for "population control" in people is to improve a population's standard of living.