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Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

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Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#91

Post by MiguelVieira »

paulpauper wrote: post #29

Amazon, Facebook , Google - three stocks to rule the world. They cannot do any wrong, and I don't mean that sarcastically. Buying these stocks is like investing in the companies that are building the matrix, but it's real life. It's just nuts..even Microsoft and Cisco in the 90's..the growth was finite, but there is no limit to Facebook, Google and Amazon. Every quarter is a crusher..over and over, year after year. J…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nifty_Fifty

> Nifty Fifty refers to the 50 popular large-cap stocks on the New York Stock Exchange in the 1960s and 1970s that were widely regarded as solid buy and hold growth stocks.

> The long bear market of the 1970s that lasted until 1982 caused valuations of the nifty fifty to fall to low levels along with the rest of the market, with most of these stocks under-performing the broader market averages.

> Because of the under-performance of most of the nifty fifty list, it is often cited as an example of unrealistic investor expectations for growth stocks.

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#92

Post by mahyarm »

adventured wrote: post #44
gallonofmilk wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I predict that in the next 10 years you're going to see major shifts and companies like Facebook will be eaten for lunch

Zero chance of that. Facebook will be doing $16 to $20 billion in profit within five or so years. They'll have accumulated $60 to $80 billion in cash. They'll have a half trillion dollar market cap in the next few years. They'll liberally use the cash and market cap to buy into any market they're missing out on, just as Microsoft purchased LinkedIn and Skype to try to stay in the game. These types of companies do not…

Until they run into their future competitor who won't sell to them, like snapchat.

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#93

Post by zjaffee »

ethanbond wrote: post #47
adventured wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zero chance of that. Facebook will be doing $16 to $20 billion in profit within five or so years. They'll have accumulated $60 to $80 billion in cash. They'll have a half trillion dollar market cap in the next few years. They'll liberally use the cash and market cap to buy into any market they're missing out on, just as Microsoft purchased LinkedIn and Skype to try to stay in the game. These types of companies do not…

With logic like that it's remarkable that our markets aren't dominated by 50, 100, 200, even 500 year old goliaths. "They're big! They'll be here forever and only get bigger!"

There are many companies over a 100 years old who are still in the fortune 500, many of them have very strong market cap's.

Look at GE, or JP Morgan. http://fortune.com/2015/06/10/oldest-companies-fortune-500/

It's just the case that old companies aren't generally coming out of nowhere and all of a sudden turning everything around, part of the reason what apple has done over the past 10 or so years so impressive.

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#94

Post by deelowe »

rocqua wrote: post #36
mschuster91 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a small part of the population, yes, but it's still mass media.

Comcast was really pleased that subscriber numbers only decreased by 4,000 this quarter IIRC Normally they see 40,000

That's what I thought. So the OPs premise stands that some of this is coming from revenue leaving traditional ads.

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#95

Post by ssharp »

mpg33 wrote: post #11
seibelj wrote: post #4

Mobile app ads keep paying more and more. I'm regularly getting $1 per click, and sometimes as high as $5 (finance category). I can't remember ever getting this much for websites. I'm using google admob

What? That's seems absurdly high..

If (CPC * ConvRate * CLV) > CPC then you can pay those prices. Granted, it's not entirely that simple with payback periods to consider, but big advertisers like insurance companies have plenty of money to fund acquisition until it pays back.

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#96

Post by ethanbond »

zjaffee wrote: post #93
ethanbond wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With logic like that it's remarkable that our markets aren't dominated by 50, 100, 200, even 500 year old goliaths. "They're big! They'll be here forever and only get bigger!"

There are many companies over a 100 years old who are still in the fortune 500, many of them have very strong market cap's. Look at GE, or JP Morgan. http://fortune.com/2015/06/10/oldest-companies-fortune-500/ It's just the case that old companies aren't generally coming out of nowhere and all of a sudden turning everything around, part of the reason what apple has done over the past 10 or so years so impressive.

I didn't say there aren't any. I said that the markets aren't dominated by them, i.e. there is obviously such a thing as a large company declining, and it is obviously a common enough thing for there to not to be thousands of gigantic century-old companies among us.

It's plainly absurd to say "a company is big therefore it will grow." In my reading of the original comment I ignored the caveat of the 5-10 year timeframe. It's true that a gigantic company can almost definitely decline for 5-10 years without disappearing. It's not true that that means it will grow for those 5-10 years instead.

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#98

Post by nl »

joosters wrote: post #86
adventured wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Optimism? It's simple extrapolation and a quick historical reference on how equivalently massive companies hold up over the near-term (5-10 years). I wasn't offering up an optimistic scenario. In just three years they'll very likely hit $13 to $15 billion in annual profit or so (it'll be $8.5 to $9 billion in the next 4 quarters alone), and have $50+ billion in cash. What is inbound in the next three years that will…

It's simple extrapolation That's the problem though. There's a good reason why just about every financial prospectus includes the phrase "Past performance is no guarantee of future results". Then from the 5 to 10 year span, what's going to come flying in that is going to steal their $70 to $100 billion in cash? Why are you so confident that you can predict everything that might happen in the next 5 to 10 years?

Why are you so confident that you can predict everything that might happen in the next 5 to 10 years?

The conservative, baseline prediction is generally "things tomorrow will be the same as today". Even if you stop their revenue growth (and there doesn't seem any good reason to think that is happening) then the parent's predictions are still basically true.

For the opposite to be true, FB doesn't just need to stop growing, it needs to shrink, and shrink very very quickly.

Can you think of a possible way Facebook could lose all their traffic in that 5 year timespan? All of FB, WhatsApp and Instagram disappearing all at once?

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#99

Post by [deleted] »

adventured wrote: post #58
ethanbond wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With logic like that it's remarkable that our markets aren't dominated by 50, 100, 200, even 500 year old goliaths. "They're big! They'll be here forever and only get bigger!"

I never said or implied such a thing, you're exaggerating. What I said, is that it's the exception for a tech juggernaut to 'get eaten for lunch.' And that is indeed a fact. Oracle, Microsoft, Intel, HP, Dell, Cisco, Google, Amazon, IBM, Texas Instruments, SAP, EMC, Qualcomm, Samsung, Apple Where's the lunch eating? Where's the wasteland of destruction of tech titans? Most of those are now old companies, some are ver…

[deleted]

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#100

Post by nl »

aurelianito wrote: post #81
adventured wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never said or implied such a thing, you're exaggerating. What I said, is that it's the exception for a tech juggernaut to 'get eaten for lunch.' And that is indeed a fact. Oracle, Microsoft, Intel, HP, Dell, Cisco, Google, Amazon, IBM, Texas Instruments, SAP, EMC, Qualcomm, Samsung, Apple Where's the lunch eating? Where's the wasteland of destruction of tech titans? Most of those are now old companies, some are ver…

DEC, Silicon Graphics, Sun, Gateway just as I remember now.

DEC and Sun are both in the list above (as HP and Oracle). This isn't just a technical point - I suppose it isn't out of the question for a mega-merger/buyout of something like Facebook and Microsoft could occur.
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