Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand • Hacker News Board

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#61

Post by gregshap » Thu, Jul 28, 2016, 9:52 PM UTC

ethanbond wrote: post #47

adventured wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zero chance of that. Facebook will be doing $16 to $20 billion in profit within five or so years. They'll have accumulated $60 to $80 billion in cash. They'll have a half trillion dollar market cap in the next few years. They'll liberally use the cash and market cap to buy into any market they're missing out on, just as Microsoft purchased LinkedIn and Skype to try to stay in the game. These types of companies do not…

With logic like that it's remarkable that our markets aren't dominated by 50, 100, 200, even 500 year old goliaths. "They're big! They'll be here forever and only get bigger!"

But the parent didn't say they can't go down, just that they won't implode within a decade of today. If IBM, Microsoft, or Cisco are dying it's a multi decade process. The dot-com companies that imploded 15 years ago were mostly losing money from day one.

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#62

Post by choosername » Thu, Jul 28, 2016, 9:53 PM UTC

vasaulys wrote: post #2

Its so bizarre to me. You'd think there would be a finite appetite for advertising, but apparently not.

That appetite is proportional to the careless feeding of stats and the affinity to fall for the ads.

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#63

Post by advisedwang » Thu, Jul 28, 2016, 9:54 PM UTC

Fiahil wrote: post #48

Ah. Yes. "Thank you" for enriching so much my life. http://imgur.com/MpO82Ta

I don't think those are actually Google ads. I went to techcrunch and clicked on the AdChoices icon and they all popped up non-google info.

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#64

Post by bobsil1 » Thu, Jul 28, 2016, 9:54 PM UTC

paulpauper wrote: post #29

Amazon, Facebook , Google - three stocks to rule the world. They cannot do any wrong, and I don't mean that sarcastically. Buying these stocks is like investing in the companies that are building the matrix, but it's real life. It's just nuts..even Microsoft and Cisco in the 90's..the growth was finite, but there is no limit to Facebook, Google and Amazon. Every quarter is a crusher..over and over, year after year. J…

>small mobile screen is perfect for advertising.

? It's very inconvenient to have your limited content cut by 40%.

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#65

Post by dragonwriter » Thu, Jul 28, 2016, 9:56 PM UTC

rebelidealist wrote: post #45

Serious question: How does Google's ad revenue increase when Google themselves were saying people aren't clicking on adwords as much when searching in mobile? Also when people are using voice search such as Siri or Google Now, they are not even seeing the ad results.

> How does Google's ad revenue increase when Google themselves were saying people aren't clicking on adwords as much when searching in mobile?

Google sells ads besides search ads, so a lower per-search rate of clicks on search ads on mobile doesn't mean lower number of total clicks. (They sell both in-app mobile ads, and web ads that are not search ads.)

Also, a lower per-search click rate doesn't mean lower per-search revenue if the value advertisers are willing to pay per click goes up more than the decline in per-search clicks.

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#66

Post by ethanbond » Thu, Jul 28, 2016, 9:56 PM UTC

gregshap wrote: post #61

ethanbond wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With logic like that it's remarkable that our markets aren't dominated by 50, 100, 200, even 500 year old goliaths. "They're big! They'll be here forever and only get bigger!"

But the parent didn't say they can't go down, just that they won't implode within a decade of today. If IBM, Microsoft, or Cisco are dying it's a multi decade process. The dot-com companies that imploded 15 years ago were mostly losing money from day one.

Fair enough. I'm perhaps overly cynical when I see this much optimism.

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#67

Post by twblalock » Thu, Jul 28, 2016, 10:01 PM UTC

gallonofmilk wrote: post #37

paulpauper wrote: post #29

Amazon, Facebook , Google - three stocks to rule the world. They cannot do any wrong, and I don't mean that sarcastically. Buying these stocks is like investing in the companies that are building the matrix, but it's real life. It's just nuts..even Microsoft and Cisco in the 90's..the growth was finite, but there is no limit to Facebook, Google and Amazon. Every quarter is a crusher..over and over, year after year. J…

I predict that in the next 10 years you're going to see major shifts and companies like Facebook will be eaten for lunch

Look how long Yahoo stuck around. These companies have massive inertia.

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#68

Post by crd4tn4jky » Thu, Jul 28, 2016, 10:02 PM UTC

akavi wrote: post #30

paulpauper wrote: post #29

Amazon, Facebook , Google - three stocks to rule the world. They cannot do any wrong, and I don't mean that sarcastically. Buying these stocks is like investing in the companies that are building the matrix, but it's real life. It's just nuts..even Microsoft and Cisco in the 90's..the growth was finite, but there is no limit to Facebook, Google and Amazon. Every quarter is a crusher..over and over, year after year. J…

> in the 90's..the growth was finite, but there is no limit to Facebook, Google and Amazon. "This time, it's different."

"This time, the stocks are generating cash profits"

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#69

Post by adventured » Thu, Jul 28, 2016, 10:05 PM UTC

ethanbond wrote: post #66

gregshap wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the parent didn't say they can't go down, just that they won't implode within a decade of today. If IBM, Microsoft, or Cisco are dying it's a multi decade process. The dot-com companies that imploded 15 years ago were mostly losing money from day one.

Fair enough. I'm perhaps overly cynical when I see this much optimism.

Optimism? It's simple extrapolation and a quick historical reference on how equivalently massive companies hold up over the near-term (5-10 years). I wasn't offering up an optimistic scenario.

In just three years they'll very likely hit $13 to $15 billion in annual profit or so (it'll be $8.5 to $9 billion in the next 4 quarters alone), and have $50+ billion in cash. What is inbound in the next three years that will hammer down upon a network carrying 1.7 billion users, that is still expanding and has no presently known threat to it, while possessing such extreme financial resources?

Absolutely nothing, that's what. No threat other than perhaps Snapchat could get enough scale in that time to be listed as a potential threat to them in the next three years.

Five years: $70 billion in cash, conservatively. $16 to $20 billion in annual profit, assuming a significant slowdown in their ad growth.

Then from the 5 to 10 year span, what's going to come flying in that is going to steal their $70 to $100 billion in cash? Or make their business disappear in just a few years. I can't name any other example of such a wild outcome happening, outside of maybe AOL, and they never had the financial muscle or scale that Facebook already commands.

Re: Google Profits Surge on Strong Ad Demand

#70

Post by kyrra » Thu, Jul 28, 2016, 10:08 PM UTC

advisedwang wrote: post #63

Fiahil wrote: post #48

Ah. Yes. "Thank you" for enriching so much my life. http://imgur.com/MpO82Ta

I don't think those are actually Google ads. I went to techcrunch and clicked on the AdChoices icon and they all popped up non-google info.

Yup. Looks like I got linked to adinfo.aol.com on both mobile and desktop. The AdChoices icon is common across many platforms (it's from the Digital Advertising Alliance), their list of members is pretty huge[0].

[0] http://www.aboutads.info/participating