A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

Post by thomasfoster96 » Sun, Jun 26, 2016, 3:36 PM UTC

YeGoblynQueenne wrote: post #84

thomasfoster96 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

52% of voters from all parties were behind his side. 52% of people voting for a brexit doesn't translate into 52% of the seats in the House of Commons going to a Johnson-led Conservative party. Edit: And it certainly doesn't translate into 52% of people wanting him to win in 2020. If he negotiates a poor deal with the EU and/or 'forgets' about a few central 'Leave' arguments, he'll be in all sorts of trouble.

But that 52% gives him the moral authority to "do his best" to take the country out of the EU. If he screws up a bit, who can blame him? It's a tough situation anyway etc etc. You have to understand how those people operate. They don't give two bits about reason and making sense. All they care about is to stay in power. They optimise for that and that alone. And 52% is power, beyond BoJo's (or Gove's or Farage's) wil…

Post by nazgob » Sun, Jun 26, 2016, 4:14 PM UTC

alva wrote: post #77

threeseed wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK will not be fine though. Scotland is all but certain to leave. Northern Ireland is also quite likely to find a way to reunite in part with Ireland. The UK will be dissolved in all but name. And of course UK will still remain within international groups. But it will no longer be the key entry point for political, commercial and cultural engagement with Europe. To manage that shift is not going to be easy nor re…

"Scotland is all but certain to leave." Not a certainty at all, especially if new EU membership involves taking the Euro. There is a reason Sturgeon has not yet called the vote, they know that EU joining terms are likely to be very ugly for Scotland at this time. She first has to convince the EU to give them extremely exceptional rules (or legal challenge so Scotland isn't necessarily leaving then joining). Your stat…

Post by internaut » Sun, Jun 26, 2016, 5:01 PM UTC

IsaacL wrote: post #58

bodyfour wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arg.. I just spent a half hour writing a long comment on this article, but then Chrome crashed when I hit "submit". I'll try to briefly retype my thoughts here since you've covered some of them. It's quite clear that Boris did not want the referendum to win. While (like all tories) he would occasionally grumble about Brussels nobody considered him anti-EU during his time as mayor. He was, however, obviously after the…

> It's quite clear that Boris did not want the referendum to win. It's not clear to me. I think you are taking it as self-evident that Leave is a bad idea. In the mainstream narrative, the EU is associated with everything nice and international and the only reason to be against it is if you're a crazy old-fashioned nationalist. There's a classical liberal case for Brexit, though, which Gove articulated reasonably wel…

Post by peteretep » Sun, Jun 26, 2016, 5:58 PM UTC

IsaacL wrote: post #58

bodyfour wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arg.. I just spent a half hour writing a long comment on this article, but then Chrome crashed when I hit "submit". I'll try to briefly retype my thoughts here since you've covered some of them. It's quite clear that Boris did not want the referendum to win. While (like all tories) he would occasionally grumble about Brussels nobody considered him anti-EU during his time as mayor. He was, however, obviously after the…

> It's quite clear that Boris did not want the referendum to win. It's not clear to me. I think you are taking it as self-evident that Leave is a bad idea. In the mainstream narrative, the EU is associated with everything nice and international and the only reason to be against it is if you're a crazy old-fashioned nationalist. There's a classical liberal case for Brexit, though, which Gove articulated reasonably wel…

    > I think you are taking it as
    > self-evident that Leave is a
    > bad idea

Post by peteretep » Sun, Jun 26, 2016, 6:01 PM UTC

YeGoblynQueenne wrote: post #65

Here's why BoJo's face, sad or smiley, doesn't matter one bit: The foreign ministers of the EU’s six founding members, however, demanded Britain start proceedings “as soon as possible” to avoid a long and potentially damaging period of uncertainty. The Dutch foreign minister, Bert Koenders, told the Volkskrant: “We can’t have the kind of dithering Boris Johnson is suggesting. Everyone wants clarity: people, businesse…