I wonder if a snap election could be called before article 50 is invoked? One of the major parties could campaign on "Remain" and if they won, they'd have a democratic mandate to ignore the referendum.
A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen
51–60 of 108 posts
Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen
#52Well that pretty much nails it. While on paper it still looks like Boris Johnson is in a great position to the vast majority of the public, the next Prime Minister is going to have to follow through with what they know is a terrible idea, negotiate with the EU with remarkably less leverage than the 'Leave' campaign thought they had, try to deal with Scotland wanting to leave, restless regional pressure groups in Wale…
All this is just old wives politics. "Did you see the look on BoJo's face?" "OMG why is he so subdued now that he won? Quick, reach for an explanation!". That's all any of these analyses have to go on. A look on BoJo's face. Keep that in mind when you waste your time with all this.
You can analyse faces all you want, but whoever the next Prime Minister is, they have a tough job that will probably end with them being walloped in a general election or being toppled by their own party. Boris Johnson is just in an even worse position because he was seen as the leader-in-waiting and he actively campaigned for the policy that made everything so complicated.
Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen
#53I wonder if a snap election could be called before article 50 is invoked? One of the major parties could campaign on "Remain" and if they won, they'd have a democratic mandate to ignore the referendum.
Look, forget about any of the major parties (like, the following two, Tories and Labour). They are responsible for this mess, either because they wanted to cause it (that's half of the Tories and a quarter ish of Labour) or because they failed to stop it (three quarters of Labour).
The best chance the UK has to reverse the result of the referendum is Nicola Sturgeon being able to do what she suggested today, blocking the process of the triggering of article 50. If she really has the power to do that, then there's hope still. Otherwise, the UK is screwed.
Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
If there is still a trade agreement between the UK and the EU, then lots of things in the UK will still be controlled by the EU, as the EU is larger and will make the trade rules. (Also, the EU is quite bureaucratic and thus not so flexible, so it will not be very willing to make a special agreement with the UK. It's EEA, Canada-style, WTO-style, or nothing.) If you don't want the EU controlling any aspect of the UK,…
Right now small businesses in the UK that don't export at all have to comply with all EU rules. If the UK leaves then they won't. So the effective influence will be greatly reduced.
Hurray! We will at last have our crooked cucumbers and carrots, that the EU has for so long cruelly deprived us of!
Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen
#55So... does anyone really think any democratic government would be so crazy as to totally discard the results of a referendum they called?
Sweden ignored a referendum where 83% voted for keeping left-sided traffic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagen_H Often decisions are better left to experts, something that representative democracy usually achieves. I also think that we should explain representative democracy as the population being able to hold the people in power accountable instead of the people deciding things. So democracy might even be a misnom…
Left sided traffic is the classic example of something that should be determined by bureaucrats. Whether to let French people vote on laws that directly bind British people is the perfect example of something that should not be determined by bureaucrats.
Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen
#56It really is a poison chalice all right. Of historical proportions. To be in charge when the United Kingdom comes to an end and Britain fades into irrelevance is something nobody could possibly want.
You move towards the picture you create. This sort of crazy hyperbole is why many people are scared. The UK will be fine. We are members of the top international groups, NATO, G7 etc.
The UK will not be fine though. Scotland is all but certain to leave. Northern Ireland is also quite likely to find a way to reunite in part with Ireland. The UK will be dissolved in all but name.
And of course UK will still remain within international groups. But it will no longer be the key entry point for political, commercial and cultural engagement with Europe.
To manage that shift is not going to be easy nor rewarding.
Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
Arg.. I just spent a half hour writing a long comment on this article, but then Chrome crashed when I hit "submit". I'll try to briefly retype my thoughts here since you've covered some of them. It's quite clear that Boris did not want the referendum to win. While (like all tories) he would occasionally grumble about Brussels nobody considered him anti-EU during his time as mayor. He was, however, obviously after the…
Corbyn has been spectacularly underwhelming. His getting the boot doesn't feel like self-destruction to me.
Absolutely, but he's still highly popular with the membership.
If the parliamentary party picked the leader, he never would be within sight of the job. Unfortunately Labour is in the all-to-familiar trap of only wanting purity, feeling that the entire country will surely swing to the far-left any second now. You would think being out of power for 18 years last time would have taught them, but apparently not.
Had they picked David Milliband to be their leader, he would be PM right now. Instead they decided Ed was more left-wing, and went for him instead. When that didn't work they decided "oh, the country won't elect someone that left... lets see if we can find someone WAY farther out there"
Deposing Corbyn would be a start, but unless there is a sudden bust of rationality among the party members it won't mean anything. They'll probably choose Marx's corpse next or something (continuing the recent run of North London leadership, naturally) On a serious note, they'd probably just re-elect Corbyn as leader giving him a fresh mandate within the party.
In the last leadership election Liz Kendall was the only candidate that looked to me like she had a chance to win a general election. She didn't even get 5% of the vote. Right now, Labour considers general-election appeal to be toxic.
Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen
#58Well that pretty much nails it. While on paper it still looks like Boris Johnson is in a great position to the vast majority of the public, the next Prime Minister is going to have to follow through with what they know is a terrible idea, negotiate with the EU with remarkably less leverage than the 'Leave' campaign thought they had, try to deal with Scotland wanting to leave, restless regional pressure groups in Wale…
Arg.. I just spent a half hour writing a long comment on this article, but then Chrome crashed when I hit "submit". I'll try to briefly retype my thoughts here since you've covered some of them. It's quite clear that Boris did not want the referendum to win. While (like all tories) he would occasionally grumble about Brussels nobody considered him anti-EU during his time as mayor. He was, however, obviously after the…
> It's quite clear that Boris did not want the referendum to win.
It's not clear to me. I think you are taking it as self-evident that Leave is a bad idea. In the mainstream narrative, the EU is associated with everything nice and international and the only reason to be against it is if you're a crazy old-fashioned nationalist.
There's a classical liberal case for Brexit, though, which Gove articulated reasonably well. I think Johnson kinda believes the same things, though without Gove's conviction (I voted Leave but I don't like Johnson, I think he's an opportunist). Like all conspiracy theories yours assumes that the conspirators concoct these elaborate schemes which have multiple failure modes. Leave had roughly 1/3 odds of winning all through the campaign, so it's not that much of a surprise. Nor is it clear that a Remain vote would have helped Johnson's career, given that almost the entire establishment backed Remain.
> It's startling watching the "moderate" Leave wing falling over themselves to dial back all of their promises during the campaign.... turns out there isn't more money for the NHS...
The media is really playing up this angle. Vote Leave isn't the government and the referendum wasn't a general election where the campaigners campaign on a particular manifesto. There is now more money in the UK budget, where it gets spent is up to the next PM.
Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen
#59So... does anyone really think any democratic government would be so crazy as to totally discard the results of a referendum they called?
What does it matter what the UK unilaterally decides to do, anymore? The rest of the EU has declared, in no uncertain terms and at the highest possible level that they want the UK out as soon as possible.
The president of the European Community has said so, the president of the European parliament has said so, the foreign ministers of the EU's six founding members have said so.
Their primary motivator btw is that the current state of uncertainty is bad for business and if it drags on it will mess up with everyone's still ongoing recovery from the last crisis. The UK may well go through a recession and everyone in the EU will be trying their damnedest to avoid following suit.
Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
All this is just old wives politics. "Did you see the look on BoJo's face?" "OMG why is he so subdued now that he won? Quick, reach for an explanation!". That's all any of these analyses have to go on. A look on BoJo's face. Keep that in mind when you waste your time with all this.
You can analyse faces all you want, but whoever the next Prime Minister is, they have a tough job that will probably end with them being walloped in a general election or being toppled by their own party. Boris Johnson is just in an even worse position because he was seen as the leader-in-waiting and he actively campaigned for the policy that made everything so complicated.
And, right now, he has 52% of voters behind him.
But, that is somehow making him do a sad face?