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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#881

Post by DarkNova6 »

ExoticPearTree wrote: post #496
DarkNova6 wrote: post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX is actually 3 companies, one of which is profitable. The satellite business operates at a loss and xAI is a money burning furnace.

> The satellite business operates at a loss How come? On the books or they're actually selling internet cheaper than they source it? > xAI is a money burning furnace So far in the AI business, it looks like only Anthropic might be profitable in the near future. On the other hand, a lot of nonprofitable companies have IPOd for billions with the hopes that one day they will become profitable.

> How come? On the books or they're actually selling internet cheaper than they source it?

My bad, the satellite business is profitable. It's the space rocket division that operate at a loss, which they state clearly in their IPO filing.

> xAI is a money burning furnace

Even Mistral is earning more revenue than xAI and the french seem well on the way of having a sustainable business who becomes a key player in Europe.

But I might be biased, my information is mostly based on: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHD8BDFYyGI

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#882

Post by torlok »

greggoB wrote: post #425
nelox wrote: post #265

What a stupid proposition. The capitalisation has already flowed to theses companies through private means.

So then what is the point of them seeking to do an IPO, if they are already capitalized?

People who helped Elon buy Twitter want their money back. After all the share-swap acquisitions X shares are now SpaceX shares.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#884

Post by Aperocky »

JohnMakin wrote: post #867
wrsh07 wrote: post #766

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are a lot of retirements on the line just by this fact 1) I would expect anyone close to retirement to have a fairly balanced portfolio. 2) if they don't include SpaceX and the stock does >10x in the next year, they'll end up doing terribly on the benchmarks. SpaceX is big, but if they invest early, it won't be a ridiculous % of the portfolio. Even if one overpays by 2x, since it's under .1% of the total port…

Am I misreading 2) or are you saying you think there’s a reasonable chance spaceX market cap could become 10+ trillion in the next year?

Even Mars becoming a state would not support that kind of valuation.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#885

Post by gitfan86 »

webdood90 wrote: post #719
gitfan86 wrote: post #704

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This fundamentally misunderstand the point of an index. The fundamental reason S&P 500 exists is to let people buy the entire market ( the top 500 companies make up most of the entire market ). That is it. Period. They are not saying these 500 companies are going to be the most successful in 6 months or 10 years. At one point Enron was 0.6% of S&P500 because it was a large company, not because the directors at S&P500…

Why would you accept this? Who does this serve? I want to believe the world is full of good people but I read stuff like this and realize otherwise.

Why do you assume SpaceX will be a failure? Do you have a track record of being correct on Elon companies? If SpaceX succeeds and its in the SPY from day one that serves everyone who owns index funds.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#886

Post by deaton »

hliyan wrote: post #471
pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

I've been told the following (obviously negative) narrative. Can someone verify/refute some of these? I've put (?) next to questionable claims. 1. Twitter is purchased with debt 2. Debt is transferred to xAI via acquisition of X/Twitter 3. Debt is further transferred to SpaceX via acquisition of xAI 4. SpaceX IPO offered at extreme valuation 5. Index fund inclusion rules waived for SpaceX IPO: profitability requireme…

The twitter purchase was "only" 44 billion dollars. Thats a lot of money, but compared to the apparent valuation of the xAI branch of ~1 trillion (based on SpaceX being considered ~800B valuation last funding round), the vast majority of the new value seems to be coming from xAI, which is the least profitable of the labs spending on that scale. So its probably worse than that.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#887

Post by mschuster91 »

ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

> Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life?

Stored in pension funds in the hope that by the time the current working class goes to pension age, there is enough left.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#888

Post by strangattractor »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

Those changes should be taken as a harbinger. Smells a lot like 1999 when a company producing cat turds could get a listing.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#889

Post by kome »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

"All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing."

that's what fiance is about after all, capturing the saving of working people :) "It's not finance, it's your pensions" https://theloop.ecpr.eu/its-not-finance-its-your-pensions/

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