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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#461

Post by lostlogin »

frankacter wrote: post #408
fourside wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does SpaceX warrant a change of existing trading rules?

>Why does SpaceX warrant a change of existing trading rules? They don't, while timing certainly benefits, and potentially was triggered by them and OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs, these rules are not specific to only apply to SpaceX. FTSE Russell (Russell 1000/2000 etc.) Adopted "fast entry" for large IPOs. Eligible companies (investable market cap above Russell Top 500 cutoff) can join after 5 trading days (previously qu…

> >Why does SpaceX warrant a change of existing trading rules? They don't, while timing certainly benefits, and potentially was triggered by them

So the question remains, why do they warrant a rule change?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#462

Post by hypendev »

zwarag wrote: post #429
giancarlostoro wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

I have yet to see an application outside of harnesses and LLMs itself where adaptation has happened on a larger scale. Devs are fine with babysitting their LLMs. People like to use LLMs to improve their mails and so on. But outside of that, the adaptation is not there yet. Don't get me wrong. I love LLMs and use them myself. But the biggest gain for me is easier context switch and text manipulation. It's not the: rep…

What is a larger scaler for you? What is "outside harness an LLM"?

What is _the proof_ if all the proofs are not _proofs_?

I don't babysit my LLM based services which are used by coaches and clients around the world. One of my LLM based solution get 30-4k daily hits and I have users coming back on the regular to use it. without babysitting, doing things that would take them hours of manual work and research.

I don't babysit the developers I work with and our clients, which both use LLM's themselves and at scale with their clients, serving all kinds of LLM powered services to millions of users worldwide.

You are not "seeing" the large adoption because:

- The technology is "a few years old" in its usable state - The corporate adoption cycle is slow - You have to understand the technology to use it in a good way, which most corporate devs and PM's do not

So it will take a bit for the "obvious" adaptation on large scale.

But you won't "know" when the large adoption happens.

Silent inference is growing every day, and that is what real adoption looks like - not an LLM being in your face chatbox, but running in the background, sorting, finding, fixing things, aligning data, figuring out analytics, tuning the ads, cleaning the datasets.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#463

Post by nelox »

deaux wrote: post #323
nelox wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Listen to the author of “A Brief History of Financial Bubbles” argue why it probably isn’t a bubble: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/260347/s/233172.rss https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/conversations-with-col... https://open.spotify.com/show/0Cj2lIpGxkrw1RFVIPTa6a?si=f41c...

You mean "Listen to [someone who started on Wall Street at Lehman Brothers, joined PayPal in its earliest days and worked alongside Peter Thiel and Elon Musk, and eventually became a venture capitalist in Silicon Valley] argue why AI probably isn't a bubble". Funny how this different framing of the exact same person provides a completely opposite expectation of their incentives behind commenting on whether AI valuati…

His experience at PayPal during the dot-com period gives him direct knowledge of how speculation can lead to major losses. This background encourages careful analysis of current conditions rather than automatic acceptance that all is well.

A point frequently overlooked is that professionals in his position have strong personal reasons to be accurate. Incorrectly concluding there is no risk can damage their investments and reputation more severely than acknowledging potential problems. His assessment rests on specific differences from earlier periods, such as major companies generating profits and consistent demand for critical hardware.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#464

Post by lostlogin »

HWR_14 wrote: post #311
gruez wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. 90 days or 5 days, it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup. What kind of price discovery are we expecting that would happen in the other 85 days?

SpaceX is slowly and steadily increasing the float over the first 6 months by having a rolling end to the lockup. The only major cliff will be Elons shares

> The only major cliff will be Elons shares

You can’t imagine a scenario where he goes lunatic and does something wild (again)?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#465

Post by energy123 »

tdeck wrote: post #349
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

What can those of us who are passive investors do to protect ourselves?

You protect yourself by understanding that this is one infinitesimally small cost (expressed as a fraction of your portfolio returns) that doesn't overcome the benefits of maximum diversification and the ultra-low fees of broad-based ETFs.

Buy MSCI World, enjoy the 0.04% p.a. fees and minimal idiosyncratic risk, and relax.

Index rebalance traders will reduce your annual returns by less (probably much less) than 0.1%, but there is no better alternative for you at this moment in time.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#466

Post by DarkNova6 »

ExoticPearTree wrote: post #435

I don’t understand why there is so much pushback and skepticisim about SpaceX. They actually have a functioning product, a market where they sell the product and virtually no competition at their pricepoint.

SpaceX is actually 3 companies, one of which is profitable. The satellite business operates at a loss and xAI is a money burning furnace.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#467

Post by yread »

haldujai wrote: post #267
stingraycharles wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that it’s better than doctors themselves. But it’s probably the same as with autonomous driving: the bar isn’t just “be as good as humans”, it’s “be flawless”.

It’s actually quite a lot worse than even doctors in training except for highly constrained experimental settings and a few very nice applications that are mostly too tedious/impractical for a human to do or are very basic detection tasks. I am a radiologist and researcher predominately focused on AI.

I work with pathologists and radiology is way ahead of us with AI use in clinical setting (but still not very far). Only things that get serious use are lab-developed (ie not commercial) image analysis algorithms for very limited (tedious, error-prone and ultimately not that often used) biomarkers. Don't believe the hype.

You could also look at the market, one of the biggest players, Paige, was acquired for about 30% of the money they raised.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#468

Post by kelnos »

bradleybuda wrote: post #371
tdeck wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What can those of us who are passive investors do to protect ourselves?

Not buy these index funds. If you don’t want to own the entire market, don’t buy funds that seek to own the entire market. Funds like ESGV which exclude companies with poor governance have existed for a very long time - I can’t find a clear answer as to whether or not it will buy SpaceX, but I’m sure you can find funds that cater to your desires.

The problem is I'm already in a S&P500-tracking ETF, for a decently large amount of money. Selling it off would be a big taxable event for me, something I don't want to do.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#469

Post by kelnos »

mock-possum wrote: post #396
tdeck wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What can those of us who are passive investors do to protect ourselves?

Move your investments to funds that won’t automatically buy spacex stocks

Moving investments usually means taxable events, which we like to avoid if possible.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#470

Post by skeptic_ai »

frankacter wrote: post #408
fourside wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does SpaceX warrant a change of existing trading rules?

>Why does SpaceX warrant a change of existing trading rules? They don't, while timing certainly benefits, and potentially was triggered by them and OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs, these rules are not specific to only apply to SpaceX. FTSE Russell (Russell 1000/2000 etc.) Adopted "fast entry" for large IPOs. Eligible companies (investable market cap above Russell Top 500 cutoff) can join after 5 trading days (previously qu…

We all know they get paid by musk to load up on overvalued stocks so musk can get some cash from pension funds, the pay off a bit Russell’s for bending the rules. No one in their right mind would change rules to buy space x. What profit must have to compensate the valuation?
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