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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#881

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What option is there for israel.

Fair. Clearly they need the land back GOD gave them 3000 years ago.

Well if one would get theological about it, I do believe they were given the land and then expelled by god. The Bible is quite explicit on that point.

I don’t remember seeing the memo that god gave “back” the land, so logically speaking they are acting against the will of god.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#882

It's disheartening to hear people talk about this in terms of won and lost. Is that how you think of these events? I think of them in terms of sadness and horror. The US threatened to obliterate a country and people, because gas was getting a little expensive. If winning and losing is the way you are framing this, instead of thinking about the humans that these actions affect, then we all have lost.

That doesn’t align with the perspective of actual Iranians I know. There are news reports of Iranian expats and opponents within Iranian who are disappointed with the ceasefire. They wanted trump to go further and destroy the regime. That aligns with conversations I’ve had with Iranians friends in the US and family members within Iran who want the regime destroyed so there is a chance of removing the Islamic theocrac…

> They wanted trump to go further and destroy the regime.

It would require a large scale ground operation which is off the table. A few more weeks of air strikes would not have destroyed the regime anyway but a few more weeks of asymmetric strikes (when Iran strikes its neighbors because it can do little about the US/Israel) would have destroyed gulf oil infrastructure inflicting lasting economic pain on the whole world.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#883
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we've had messaging for domestic consumption worldwide since the trojan wars. What people say in either direction is not a reflection of what happens, it's what they want to say, and have some cohort believe happened. This is for domestic consumption. As will the WH reports be, facing the US domestic audience.

The Supreme National Security Council is quoting the agreement that Trump supposedly agreed to. And if that agreement holds, it is hard to see it as anything but a complete Iranian victory. Keep in mind, the losers in a conflict have more of an incentive to lie than the winners. The US and Israel seem very much the losers here.

I genuinely do not understand how people read the words

> We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran

and conclude that this means anything remotely resembling that Trump "supposedly agreed" to do everything Iran wants.

(Just in case this is somehow the reasoning: "points of past contention" clearly do not refer to the "points" in the "proposal". That's not how English works and not how time works. But that's the only wild guess I can genuinely even think of, after going over it repeatedly.)

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#884
post #593

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still looking at the details, but this morning, one of the biggest French newspapers was basically headlining (a slightly more polite version of) TACO. Not a good image for the US around the world, including its (former?) allies, I guess.

Would a better image be destroying the power plants and water desalination of 90M people?

I personally would have a better image of the ongoing war if it had any objectives that felt achievable.

Out of curiosity, what do you think is the best realistic outcome for this war, from the US perspective?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#885
post #879

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

To summarize: a far worse deal than what Obama had and Trump ripped up, and worse than the status quo that existed before Trump started illegally bombing Iran.

There is a reason Trump had to be saved over and over during his 'career'. Extreme incompetence + clinical narcissism = "I am a winner". This conman and more importantly the powers that prop him up have been very costly for the world, including the USA, and it is about time to hand the bill to MAGA.

Rednecks gonna redneck, the USA clown show has some very determined sponsors, so I don't count on any improvement, but I prefer they at least enjoy their party indoors.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#886

OK I guess it is pause time. US and Israel are probably restocking on whatever missiles they can get, while Iran doing the same, and Russian/China rushing stuffs to Iran through sea and railroad. At least I got a cheaper tank of gasoline tomorrow…

Oh brother, gas goes up in a hurry, it takes its sweet time to come down.

The way I recall things, in 2022 they took half the year to go up and were back to normal by the end. The statistics I can easily find corroborate this.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#887
post #737

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.

$2M/ship is $100B/year at pre-war crossing rates.

100B/Year

How are they spinning this, that it is not Reparations?

"10. Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations"

What is the splitting of hairs here?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#888
post #637

[flagged]

> A lot of American and Israeli degenerates here egging on the military to continue their war crimes (bombing of civilian infrastructure and civilians) in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon while simultaneously calling the Iranians evil. Anyone who points that out is downvoted to oblivion.

I see nothing whatsoever resembling that ITT.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#889

Let's not forget the road to war started in 2016 when Trump walked into the White House at withdrew from the JCPOA. He's wanted the war for years, got it, and lost it.

How do you reconcile this with the fact that he supposedly got no opportunity for it in four years the first time around?

How do you reconcile this supposed war-mongering attitude with the existence of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords ?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#890

trumps supreme negotiation skills have gotten us a worse agreement than before the senseless, baseless, and aggressive attack on Iran. What a complete moron.

> have gotten us a worse agreement

A "workable basis on which to negotiate" is not anything remotely like an agreement.

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