Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

801–810 of 1001 posts

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#801

Post by rc_mob »

deadbabe wrote: post #615

Spacex is worth buying. The best chance to make a lot of money is buying stock before the economics make sense. By the time SpaceX looks like a good company on paper with strong profits… the price will be so high you have little chance of making anything significant. If it’s a long term hold, consider how far away retirement is for you. Also, moon bases are coming. The AI companies IMO are fucked. In the next few yea…

Warning to readers-- do not take stock advice from random comments on the internet

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#803

Post by jayd16 »

bluGill wrote: post #680
Arn_Thor wrote: post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 7. Index fund managers are not incentivized to exclude a SpaceX from their indexes. (?) Correction: index funds don't have a choice. They must follow the index, and so must buy the stock. side effect: they'll have to sell other stocks, pushing their prices and weighting in market cap weighted indexes down. > Passive investors are unable to rapidly respond to these types of changes because liquidating portfolios wil…

> Correction: index funds don't have a choice. They must follow the index, and so must buy the stock. Maybe, most indexes do not have to follow the index. they just need to match the returns. An index fund manager has choice of what stocks to buy. However an index fund doesn't have enough managers to make many choices and so they normally buy just what is in the index. However all index fund managers know they are la…

So are they incentivized to allow an obvious grift and let the index have middling returns so they can skim the difference?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#805

Post by pzo »

I did have few days ago conversation with AI to research how the economical environment was just before Great Depression and this doesn't look good if true. Definitely feels like someone try to dump their bags to retails investors and main street.

- Trailing P/E: 1929 peak was 32.6 vs. 32.67 today.

- Shiller PE (CAPE): 1929 peak was ~30 vs. 42.66 today (2nd highest in history).

- Buffett Indicator: Market cap was 124% of GNP in 1929 vs. 259.6% of GDP today.

- Margin Debt to GDP: 3.0% in 1929 vs. 4.1% ($1.304T) today.

- Systemic Risk: 1929 margin debt was 10-12% of total market cap vs. 1-2% today. Modern leverage has structurally shifted from retail to sovereign debt and shadow banking.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#806

Post by rustystump »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

Very silly question but cant someone just spin up an index cutting out spacex? Like even an etf that is nothing more than an sp500 sans non profitable companies?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#807

Post by SwellJoe »

xienze wrote: post #480
SwellJoe wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which, again, benefits the wealthy and well-informed and well-connected. The suckers who have their retirement savings in some kind of index fund because all the experts have been saying, "Buy index ETFs and forget about it" for decades are gonna get fleeced, and the wealthiest get wealthier.

I suppose everyone reading this thread counts as "well-informed" then, right? All I have to do is move my 401k into the bond-heavy fund right now and then back into the stock-heavy one when everything craters is what I'm hearing. It's what you're doing, right?

I'm informed enough to see what they're doing and why, but I'm not informed enough to know how to prevent them from wrecking the economy for normal folks while enriching themselves. I don't think information alone can solve the problem for the majority of people. Retirement accounts aren't often easy to change, non-retirement accounts have tax consequences, timing the market as a normal retail investor is risky.

I don't really have advice. If I were directly holding an index that tracks the Nasdaq 100, I would get out of it, and take the tax hit. But, I suspect the impact and risk will cascade outward. Nvidia has exploded in price based on actual revenue (though I suspect it will be temporary, and have to come back to earth in time). SpaceX is entirely fantasy land. It doesn't have revenue to justify anything like the price they're launching the IPO, and when indexes are forced to buy it, everyone holding those indexes provides exit liquidity for the same scammers who've been hyping it.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#808

Post by curtisblaine »

nickpp wrote: post #583
curtisblaine wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, let's see. LLMs made my overall coding output significantly faster, even factoring in review time and tech debt. My employer should technically benefit from this, but it doesn't really, because all its competitors use the same AIs and all their engineers increased their throughput in a similar way. So I'm not sure that I, my colleagues or the whole segment I work in really benefited from AI in any measurable way.

Your clients and your competitors' clients did benefit from this overall faster coding output though. Eventually your employer benefitted too, from more & happier paying customers. Finally you indirectly befitted as well - through continued employment, salary and bonuses and stock (if you own any).

But that didn't happen in reality, did it?

Clients - I don't see anyone delighted that apps are better, or cheaper, or more secure. If anything, I see more enshittification, more half-baked ideas and more fear that security is worse now that we let AIs write almost all code.

Employers - They didn't really sell more or expanded their customer base. They would have, if they had the exclusive advantage, but now everyone has AI. They can cram more features in their software quicker, but so can their competitors, and AI is not magically opening any untapped market. If anything, everyone is now doing the same thing - trying to get their software on the AI train, with mediocre results so far.

You - did you benefit really? The job market is shit due to the death of ZIRP, the nature of the job itself is changing and there's a lot of uncertainty around. If anything, employees are now laid off more, not less, and salary and bonuses are not increased in any measurable way.

It looks like to me that we have to dance this particular dance because if we don't do we're left behind. That's fine, it happens every now and then. It might even be that in the future we will have tangible advantages from LLMs - better automated health care, better learning opportunities come to mind. That has to be demonstrated. But now, in year 2026, what's one advantage of AI? Having less and pricier RAM? Being able (and expected) to write more code in less time?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#809

Post by maerF0x0 »

At least on SpaceX the float is really low. The Market only needs to "swallow" ~$100Bn in volume of shares (across the 3), which the NYSE does _daily_.

the really interesting thing will be how much will other stocks go down because the passive dollars are chasing the new shares and have to sell to rebalance?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#810

Post by natebc »

stingraycharles wrote: post #246
rockskon wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't AI routinely making significant mistakes in analyzing medical imaging?

My understanding is that it’s better than doctors themselves. But it’s probably the same as with autonomous driving: the bar isn’t just “be as good as humans”, it’s “be flawless”.

What are the premiums like for this AI radiologists malpractice insurance?
Post reply on HN