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Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

economist.com

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Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#81

Post by bob1029 »

I am still looking for aggressive growth. My strategy over the last ~9 months has been to buy (things I trust) on a continuous, daily basis. I intend to maintain this strategy all the way through next year as well.

When I start to see lots of headlines like "recession is inevitable", I remind myself that the stock market is a time machine and/or palantir operating at some arbitrary offset in the future.

Keeping my cash in safe bets and waiting until the Economist says "all clear" is going to be way too late to capitalize on much of the downturn or volatility.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#82

Post by nuc1e0n »

The US government has had it's own policy failures that give it cause to consider saber rattling also.

The best option seems to me to stay local and hunker down but keep talking to each other. Fibre optics are cheap. Can't Xi and Biden just play Starcraft or something?

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#83

Post by LaurensBER »

diogenescynic wrote: post #74
koboll wrote: post #8

If it was truly 'inevitable' it would be priced in

Isn't the S&P 500 down like ~22% YTD?

Down -22% and PE ratios still hover around 19ish indicating that the market is expecting a soft landing.

If I remember correctly the market is expecting earnings of the SP500 to _grow_ by 5% next year

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#84

Post by qgawt »

Many people here say that it's just another Economist prediction. It isn't. The OECD predicts a recession for Germany and The UK in 2023:

https://www.oecd.org/economy/germany-economic-snapshot/

https://www.oecd.org/economy/united-kingdom-economic-snapsho...

I'm also astonished by the denial in forums that the Sars-Cov2 and Ukraine policies are the cause. You may like those policies, but it requires mental contortions to deny their influence.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#85

Post by hikingsimulator »

lp4vn wrote: post #60
cj wrote: post #26

Stupid question: Are recessions a healthy part of a normal economic ebb and flow? (Over the long-term) I suppose an extremely long recession/depression (e.g. 5-10 years) would obviously be bad. But are recessions that last 1-2 years really something to panic over at a macro level? My (less than informed) assumption is high growth followed by a slight contraction/recession isn’t objectively bad if it helps an economy…

It turned out to be a stupid question indeed. People have not been able to afford rent and food in rich countries to the point of creating social unrests, let alone in poor ones. Unironically check your privilege, man.

You do not help, either your case or that of the people that do struggle.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#86

Post by ianai »

samwillis wrote: post #47

Disclaimer, I have no idea if this is even slightly logical, I'm not an economist. House prices have increased significantly above inflation for decades to the point of absurdity, many multiples of a households income. People in their 20s (and 30s) increasingly don't believe they will ever own a home. If we have a period of inflation, with increased wages (obviously with a painful lag), but house prices remain stagna…

Explain how housing prices remain stable while labor enjoys increasing wages without some other changes?

Write in complaint about never affording a home. I’ll be 40 next year and in an apartment. Largely, still, because my sub-generation got absolutely knee capped by the Great Recession and just general crap conditions.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#87

Post by ajross »

xapata wrote: post #62
ajross wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, yeah, in fact the point is stronger. Economies are feedback systems and oscillate. Recessions are inevitably predicted every few years because recessions simply are inevitable every few years. And yeah, it seems likely (though obviously not certain) that we're due for another. There's nothing particularly notable here. Speculation markets got overheated[1], now they're correcting and as a side effect money ends…

I'm not sure oscillation is a good metaphor. It could be a random walk, which might appear periodic, but is not.

Virtually all feedback systems[1] have oscillatory modes in their solutions. Calling something a "random walk" doesn't tell you how the choices of direction are made, but in economics (and electronics) that's something that's subject to analysis. So I like mine better.

[1] Which an economy is, almost by definition: spending makes the people who sold you stuff richer, who then spend; tight purses mean the producers are poorer too.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#88

Post by MilnerRoute »

The key word is "global". The article mentions Europe (especially the post-Brexit UK) and then, surprisingly, China.

"America’s economy enters 2023 in fundamentally stronger shape than either China’s or any in Europe. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate increases will tip the economy into recession, but with the labour market still strong and household savings copious, it will be a mild one."

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#89

Post by switch007 »

BirAdam wrote: post #71
curation wrote: post #33

Why are global symptoms of capitalism (recessions, financializations, slow motion crashes aka inflation) subjects of speculation but the cause - capitalism itself - not?

Capitalism no longer exists. Current economic systems are based around debt and not capital.

That’s seems like a very very narrow definition of capitalism

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#90

Post by adra »

lp4vn wrote: post #60
cj wrote: post #26

Stupid question: Are recessions a healthy part of a normal economic ebb and flow? (Over the long-term) I suppose an extremely long recession/depression (e.g. 5-10 years) would obviously be bad. But are recessions that last 1-2 years really something to panic over at a macro level? My (less than informed) assumption is high growth followed by a slight contraction/recession isn’t objectively bad if it helps an economy…

It turned out to be a stupid question indeed. People have not been able to afford rent and food in rich countries to the point of creating social unrests, let alone in poor ones. Unironically check your privilege, man.

Your response is unquestionally a bad one. If someone is desperate and on the edge during economic good times, then they're going to fall off the chart when the economy falls over. Don't blame the economy. It isn't the "economy's" job to keep a population fed and content, this is for socialized economic policies to backstop, not some delusion that good times will always be good times any any policy that adjusts against bubbles and inflation are anti-poor.
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