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Murder-Suicides by Pilots Are Vexing Airlines as Deaths Mount

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Re: Murder-Suicides by Pilots Are Vexing Airlines as Deaths Mount

#81

Post by MBCook »

rkk3 wrote: post #64
MBCook wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Look up the German Wings case, flight 9525. In short one pilot waited for the other to leave the cockpit, locked the door, and deliberately crashed the plane. He was so suicidal and distraught (thought he was going blind and thus would lose his job) he was willing to do it. If you read the full story it’s even sadder.

And just like school shootings, that German pilot studied MH370. The MH370 pilot likely did the same thing. He was separated from his wife & at his house they found he practiced the crash route on Microsoft Flight simulator.

Really? I didn’t know that part. I knew that psychiatrists had told him to stop flying while things were so bad, which he obviously ignored.

I didn’t know he had prepared like that though.

Re: Murder-Suicides by Pilots Are Vexing Airlines as Deaths Mount

#82

Post by throwaway894345 »

jrochkind1 wrote: post #78
throwaway894345 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think child mortality in car crashes has decreased below gunshot deaths. There was a recent economist headline which suggested that gunshot deaths surpassed car accident deaths for young people , but they defined "young people" as 1-24 year olds so as to exclude infant mortality deaths on the low end of the age range and include gun deaths on the high end of the age range. The latter is the most important bec…

> the same thing as overall homicides: changes in policing over the last decade. Not obvious to me that's the cause, or even the nature of the changes you are suggesting a) happened and b) are the cause. Citation?

Here's some copypasta from a recent comment I'd made on another forum, but there are half a dozen other studies that I could cite if I had the time:

> For nearly a year, Richard Rosenfeld’s research on crime trends has been used to debunk the existence of a “Ferguson effect”, a suggested link between protests over police killings of black Americans and an increase in crime and murder. ... “The only explanation that gets the timing right is a version of the Ferguson effect,” Rosenfeld said. Now, he said, that’s his “leading hypothesis”.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/13/ferguson-eff...

> From 2014 to 2019, Campbell tracked more than 1,600 BLM protests across the country, largely in bigger cities, with nearly 350,000 protesters. ... Campbell’s research also indicates that these protests correlate with a 10 percent increase in murders in the areas that saw BLM protests. That means from 2014 to 2019, there were somewhere between 1,000 and 6,000 more homicides than would have been expected if places with protests were on the same trend as places that did not have protests.

https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crim...

Famed Harvard economist Roland Fryer looked at cities that had a major BLM shooting and found a sharp increase in homicides and other felonies (900 additional homicides and 34k additional felonies over the course of a few months) compared with the same cities prior to their BLM shootings and compared with other cities which didn't have a BLM shooting. "The leading hypothesis for why these investigations increase homicides and total crime is an abrupt change in the quantity of policing activity. In Chicago, the number of police-civilian interactions decreased by almost 90% in the month after the [police shooting] investigation was announced. In Riverside CA, interactions decreased 54%. In St. Louis, self-initiated police activities declined by 46%."

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working\_papers/w27324/w27...

Re: Murder-Suicides by Pilots Are Vexing Airlines as Deaths Mount

#83

Post by arminiusreturns »

simonh wrote: post #75
arminiusreturns wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like how you jump directly to crazy from gp's "contigent of people saying the media is hiding the truth". Do you see how your response is part of the problem? Instead of addressing issues brought up, its just a label slap and then dismissal. Yeah there are real crazies who also say those things, but they are dwarfed by the amount of normal people who don't trust media and with many good reasons. I have a feeling it…

>contigent of people saying the media is hiding the truth Go start a media organisation, publish, go on social media, bring the truth to the people. Nobody will stop you. That's all just tosh. When I was a teenager here in the UK I used to be able to buy the English edition of Pravda in my local newsagents. In fact you can read the latest edition right now [0], thought it's a lot less risible these days. Yes news org…

None of that negates the truth that the media that has the most minds in it's capture hides the truth more often than not. Yes, the internet is a last bastion of anarchistic freedom of thought, which is why it also is under fierce attack by the oligarchs. There are a handful of true journalists and truth tellers on the internet, and their truth no matter how powerful generally gets shutdown and prevented from reaching the minds of others. On top of that recently there have been moves to regulate speech against the principles of freedom of speech. The very purveyors of disinfo are now claiming a right to govern disinfo. Alarm bells should be going off for everyone.

Class war is at play, and the non-.001% are losing.

Re: Murder-Suicides by Pilots Are Vexing Airlines as Deaths Mount

#84

Post by Terry_Roll »

toast0 wrote: post #61
Terry_Roll wrote: post #34

Considering more and more aircraft is fly by wire and most pilots get their "air time" in sims, is there not a advantage in building a mock cockpit at the back of the airline with a backup pilot to take over when other protocols are met? All this is doing is highlighting how one person beit the president or prime minister of a country, judge's, GP's, practically anyone including a pilot can steal some or all of other…

It's all about tradeoffs. You could increase the number of pilots to hopefully reduce the number of these incidents, but the added complexity might increase other incidents and would reduce the capacity for paid passengers and increase the labor costs when there's already a shortage of qualified pilots willing to work for the airlines. Same thing with the doors. They got strong locks and protocols to use them in resp…

> It's all about tradeoffs

Trade offs that we have to trust other people to make the right decisions and we only have to look at how people game the system for money, just look at Jeff Bezo for a prime example!

Re: Murder-Suicides by Pilots Are Vexing Airlines as Deaths Mount

#85

Post by jrochkind1 »

throwaway894345 wrote: post #82
jrochkind1 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the same thing as overall homicides: changes in policing over the last decade. Not obvious to me that's the cause, or even the nature of the changes you are suggesting a) happened and b) are the cause. Citation?

Here's some copypasta from a recent comment I'd made on another forum, but there are half a dozen other studies that I could cite if I had the time: > For nearly a year, Richard Rosenfeld’s research on crime trends has been used to debunk the existence of a “Ferguson effect”, a suggested link between protests over police killings of black Americans and an increase in crime and murder. ... “The only explanation that g…

Hey thanks for the info. Food for thought.

However, I'd say from these that it's not clear that observed effects are the result of "changes in policing"; it's a hypothesis, sure, but not with close to the level of confidence you suggest.

The Vox article acknowledges this:

> This is where things get more speculative… We don’t know why BLM protests correlated with an increase in the murder rate, and there’s not a lot of research in this space to help guide us.

and also:

> The good news is that even if Campbell’s finding about the increase in murders following BLM protests holds up to further scrutiny, the effect doesn’t appear to last for long. By year four, Campbell no longer observes a statistically significant increase in murders,

The Guardian article:

> Even if the increase in homicide is significant, there are many competing theories for what may be responsible.

The nber.org URL does not resolve for me.

I guess it would be interesting to compare places with "police-involved shooting" that did NOT have major protests, with those that had such shootings and protests, if the hypothesis is that it was the protests that somehow resulted in... changes in policing... so actually, if the hypothesis is changes in policing, why not actually try to measure _changes in policing_ and correlate to homicide rate, instead of correlating protests and murders and assuming "changing in policing" resulted from the protests as an unmeasured middle step?

Re: Murder-Suicides by Pilots Are Vexing Airlines as Deaths Mount

#86

Post by throwaway894345 »

jrochkind1 wrote: post #85
throwaway894345 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's some copypasta from a recent comment I'd made on another forum, but there are half a dozen other studies that I could cite if I had the time: > For nearly a year, Richard Rosenfeld’s research on crime trends has been used to debunk the existence of a “Ferguson effect”, a suggested link between protests over police killings of black Americans and an increase in crime and murder. ... “The only explanation that g…

Hey thanks for the info. Food for thought. However, I'd say from these that it's not clear that observed effects are the result of "changes in policing"; it's a hypothesis, sure, but not with close to the level of confidence you suggest. The Vox article acknowledges this: > This is where things get more speculative… We don’t know why BLM protests correlated with an increase in the murder rate, and there’s not a lot o…

> However, I'd say from these that it's not clear that observed effects are the result of "changes in policing"; it's a hypothesis, sure, but not with close to the level of confidence you suggest.

Yes, because a lot of these studies were from the early days of the BLM riots. Things have solidified in the intervening half decade (although there's some uncertainty about how much of the 2020 surge is attributable to policing versus the pandemic, but I don't think anyone seriously doubts changes in policing played no role at all especially considering the homicide uptick begins promptly and dramatically after May 25, 2000). I don't think there are any remaining hypotheses (there is at least one niche hypothesis that is still a variant of the Ferguson effect--that the protests have caused communities to lose trust in police--but most studies refute it or find no evidence of it).

Here's the nber.org link again (I had to do some manual formatting edits when I copy/pasted, and I flubbed this link apparently): https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27324/w273...

> f the hypothesis is that it was the protests that somehow resulted in... changes in policing... so actually, if the hypothesis is changes in policing, why not actually try to measure _changes in policing_ and correlate to homicide rate, instead of correlating protests and murders and assuming "changing in policing" resulted from the protests as an unmeasured middle step?

This is precisely what many of these studies do--they find reductions in policing and increases in murder rates. If you read the paragraph above the nber.org link, that's exactly what I describe.

Re: Murder-Suicides by Pilots Are Vexing Airlines as Deaths Mount

#87

Post by simonh »

arminiusreturns wrote: post #83
simonh wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>contigent of people saying the media is hiding the truth Go start a media organisation, publish, go on social media, bring the truth to the people. Nobody will stop you. That's all just tosh. When I was a teenager here in the UK I used to be able to buy the English edition of Pravda in my local newsagents. In fact you can read the latest edition right now [0], thought it's a lot less risible these days. Yes news org…

None of that negates the truth that the media that has the most minds in it's capture hides the truth more often than not. Yes, the internet is a last bastion of anarchistic freedom of thought, which is why it also is under fierce attack by the oligarchs. There are a handful of true journalists and truth tellers on the internet, and their truth no matter how powerful generally gets shutdown and prevented from reachin…

Or maybe. Just maybe, the vast majority of people don’t see it that way, and genuinely don’t care about and don’t want to read or hear about the kind of fringe stuff you think is being ‘suppressed’.

Re: Murder-Suicides by Pilots Are Vexing Airlines as Deaths Mount

#88

Post by throwaway130124 »

ramesh31 wrote: post #11

It all comes down to the mental health stigma. Even hinting at the slightest bit of mental distress can be enough to lose your medical certificate and end your career. It's no wonder that the pilot population would be more susceptible to the consequences of untreated mental illness.

Absolutely. I ran into this as a new student pilot recently. Went in to get my medical thinking it would be a breeze, but my mention of going through a period of depression more than a decade ago (not diagnosed, just my layman's assessment at the time) and some more recent work-related anxiety was enough to get my medical deferred. This process will likely take me months to wade through, and this is only for a third-class medical (for a private pilot, not commercial)!

I filled out the form assuming the doctor would be free to exercise discretion and that it wouldn't be an issue, but it turns out the FAA wants all these kinds of responses referred to a small team in Oklahoma City who will eventually get through the backlog and review them.

It's not a very big deal for me; I just wanted to fly for fun, and can wait a few months. But for someone for whom this is a career, I can't help but imagine that there are lots of pilots out there that avoid seeking help so as not to jeopardize their career.

Re: Murder-Suicides by Pilots Are Vexing Airlines as Deaths Mount

#89

Post by r721 »

core-utility wrote: post #19
robonerd wrote: post #7

> Fatal crashes of private, business, and corporate-executive airplanes have increased after publicized murder-suicides. The more publicity given to a murder-suicide, the more crashes occurred. The increase in plane crashes occurred primarily in states where the murder-suicides were publicized. These findings suggest that murder-suicide stories trigger subsequent murder-suicides, some of which are disguised as airpla…

As every evil act gets blasted worldwide instantaneously, one has to think that we as a culture need to put an end to publicizing the name/photo of the attacker. It's been proven enough times that it empowers others to do the same, for the fame and recognition of the "nobody".

I still remember this alleged quote from Germanwings co-pilot:

>According to the German newspaper Bild, a former girlfriend of Lubitz, identified only as Mary W, said he had told her last year: “One day I will do something that will change the whole system, and then all will know my name and remember it.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/27/germanwings-co...

Re: Murder-Suicides by Pilots Are Vexing Airlines as Deaths Mount

#90

Post by Markoff »

phkahler wrote: post #12

>> Preliminary evidence suggests the crash of a China Eastern Airlines Corp. jet in March may be the latest such tragedy, a person familiar with the investigation said. What is the preliminary evidence? For this type of conclusion I would think the first and last bit of evidence would be the control inputs as recorded by the black box. Supporting evidence should be on the voice recording. What is this "preliminary ev…

You don't really need evidence, you just read between lines - Chinese gov would use any opportunity to blame US company for the crash and since they kept quiet it's pretty clear it was human error/action.

And considering HOW the airplane crashed it's pretty clear it was intentional, you need to try really hard to crash straight down vertically (with intact airplane).

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