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China's e-buses dent oil demand more than electric cars do

bloomberg.com

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Re: China's e-buses dent oil demand more than electric cars do

#81

Post by dzhiurgis »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #66
austincheney wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The entire worldwide shipping industry accounts for about 3% of humanity’s CO2 emissions. To my knowledge personally owned vehicles account for a similar percentage of total CO2 output, so that number while small is a red herring. People tend to generate more CO2 per capita as a result of air conditioning than from the vehicles they drive.

You are very incorrect on most of what you've posted here, but this is embarrassing since you could verify this with basic math. An air conditioner typically consumes in the neighborhood of 4kW, less than half the day, less than half the year. So, being generous, 6000kWh annually for air conditioning. Gasoline has the equivalent of 34kWh/gallon, which implies air conditioning uses the equivalent of 176 gallons of gas…

In reality difference is probably 4x - household has two cars and AC is shared over 2 people.

Re: China's e-buses dent oil demand more than electric cars do

#82

Post by gibybo »

jwr wrote: post #47
siculars wrote: post #11

This is a very good way to think about the price of goods. When supply and demand are in relative equilibrium price remains stable and reflects the cost of production plus some margin for manufacturers. When you trim demand even slightly by a few percent - which EVs in their various forms will inevitably do - what happens to price? Where is the new demand for oil to compensate? Jet fuel? I believe price per unit oil…

The price of oil is unrealistic, because it does not reflect the terrible damage to our planet. In other words, the current price can be so low because we are "borrowing" the planet from our children and grandchildren. We get cheap oil because they will not have a planet to live on. If the price were to include a carbon tax, it would likely be at least ten times higher and we would very quickly get rid of our beloved…

>If the price were to include a carbon tax, it would likely be at least ten times higher and we would very quickly get rid of our beloved gas guzzlers.

Wouldn't you expect a carbon tax to be similar in price to the cost to get the carbon back out of the air?

CO2 released per barrel of oil (when converted to various fuels and burned) appears to be around 300-450 kg [1][2], but we can round up to 500 kg to be conservative and make the math easier.

The cost to take it back out of the air appears to run between $30-$200/tonne depending on how you do it [3][4][5]. I think it's worth speculating that this cost is likely to drop precipitously as the demand and scale at which we need to do it increases, but we can very conservatively stick with $200/tonne for now.

Crude oil is at about $59/barrel today. $200 * 0.5 tonnes = $100. So with the most conservative estimates, it wouldn't quite triple the cost.

[1] https://pyrolysium.org/how-much-co2-produced-by-burning-one-...

[2] http://numero57.net/2008/03/20/carbon-dioxide-emissions-per-...

[3] https://www.c2es.org/document/the-cost-of-u-s-forest-based-c...

[4] https://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/19/carbon-capture-expensiv...

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_sequestration

Re: China's e-buses dent oil demand more than electric cars do

#83

Post by dzhiurgis »

desdiv wrote: post #22
burlesona wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s surprising to me. Do you have any references for that? Why are the ships so emissive?

It's simply not true. It started out as a factoid, but got jumbled into nonsense by a game of telephone: 1. True: 16 of the world’s largest ships produce as much _sulfur_ pollution as all the world’s cars.[1] 2. False: "How 16 ships create as much pollution as all the cars in the world", headline from Daily Mail.[2] 3. False: "world's 6 largest shipping tankers produce more CO2 than all the world's personal vehicles…

I am visiting Tauranga for couple of days - a big port here in NZ. I can smell sulphur quite often around city. Reminds me my childhood when playing with chemicals.

Similarly I can smell NOx out of some modern diesels. Reminds me a jar of nitric acid I used to keep under my desk, until the lid rusted thru...

Re: China's e-buses dent oil demand more than electric cars do

#84

Post by thewhitetulip »

By this logic, we should "forget" all the go green initiatives because China (and Africa) are building a "Green Wall" to stop their respective deserts from widening.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/04/china-great-gree...

I say this is mainly about China because Africa has modified their green wall project and instead of planting billion trees from East coast to West coast, they are helping communities to thrive by planting trees and reviving land.

China is crazy in this sense, there is a thick patch of shrubs that now border the Gobi desert and mainland China. By 2030 it'll be the largest manmade plantation on Earth.

edit: 66 billion trees planted so far!

Re: China's e-buses dent oil demand more than electric cars do

#85

Post by thewhitetulip »

osdiab wrote: post #73
shard972 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you confident they are onboard with limiting CO2 emissions when they are currently looking the other way at rising CFC emissions which are far more harmful.

They’ve done a ton of stuff to limit emissions, from flat out banning coal furnaces in some regions (somewhat prematurely) and halting all construction for future coal plants, investing in mass transit much more than any country on the planet, prioritizing nuclear energy, leading the world on solar, mandating all electric scooter car and bus fleets across the entire society. Chinese (yes, people are very outspoken an…

Not to mention plant like a million of trees bordering the Gobi desert.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/04/china-great-gree...

Re: China's e-buses dent oil demand more than electric cars do

#86

Post by bobthepanda »

evolve2k wrote: post #61

This points out a new opportunity. Why stop at China for electric busses (yes they are probably manufacturing them locally)? Cities are seeming increasingly more able to be proactive than countries. Encourage local cities to one by one electrify the bus network and this effect goes global. It’s obvious tangible action that citizens can demand and mayors can visibly deliver. Game for those playing at home, do a search…

Initial indicators seem to be that they're not ready for prime time.

Albuquerque returned BYD buses because of problems with range not performing as advertised. https://www.abqjournal.com/1246094/abq-rejecting-all-byd-art...

Battery-electrics still have major issues with range; buses cannot last a full day on a single charge, and midday charging takes too long. And if it gets cold or the route has hills, you're completely out of luck. https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2019/01/electric-bus-...

Re: China's e-buses dent oil demand more than electric cars do

#87

Post by forrestthewoods »

Razengan wrote: post #70
forrestthewoods wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Limiting who is allowed to reproduce? I mean what could possibly go wrong!

We already limit many things that people are allowed to do.

The fact that we limit some things is not a valid argument that we should be able to limit any thing. That's Billy Madison levels of wrong.

Re: China's e-buses dent oil demand more than electric cars do

#88

Post by caf »

nradov wrote: post #24
stevenjohns wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Forgive my ignorance, but couldn't nuclear power be used to generate electricity on these tankers in the same way its used to power submarines?

Nuclear power plants on land could be used to generate power for producing synthetic hydrocarbons, which would in turn be used for powering ships. But putting nuclear reactors on merchant ships is totally impractical for security reasons.

This is true. Naval reactors need to be relatively small and light, which means that they end up using HEU fuel, which is a security risk.

Re: China's e-buses dent oil demand more than electric cars do

#90

Post by ekianjo »

reustle wrote: post #6

"Forget Tesla" is the wrong attitude. We should applaud every win we can get, big or small.

We should celebrate what makes things available to everyone, not just to rich clients. Tesla is still far away from selling cars to everyone.
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