Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

That sinking feeling

antipope.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 178 posts

Re: That sinking feeling

#81

Post by pjc50 »

craigsmansion wrote: post #71
bilbo0s wrote: post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

> but I think that they had a vote. Norway also had a vote on the EU. I was also close. "No" won. What Norway didn't implement was a "winner takes all" approach. They're not in the EU. They're not in the Customs union. They are in the EEA. Everybody wins, everybody loses, but nobody feels like their wishes have been completely ignored. There is no reason the results of the Brexit referendum couldn't have been interpr…

I think for a lot of participants there does have to be a "loser" - it's been turned into a "culture war". That's where things like refusing to accept ECJ jurisdiction seem to be coming from. That's why there's such a nasty edge to the whole thing, and such a refusal to engage in compromises that might move the thing forwards.

Re: That sinking feeling

#82

Post by tigershark »

bilbo0s wrote: post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

Will of the people? European citizens, even with the permanent residence that you can get after 5 years of Uk residence, could not vote. Uk citizens living abroad for more than 2 or 3 years couldn’t vote. Indians and all the other from commonwealth could vote. Indians, without having the slightest idea of what is Europe, voted en masse for leave. Obviously the two other groups would have voted for remain. So there was no “will of the people” expressed, it was just a rigged referendum.

Re: That sinking feeling

#83

Post by pjc50 »

api wrote: post #80
mcphage wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've spoken to people who are cheering for these kinds of effects. An actual quote: "I hope Trump does as much damage as possible." And he will—to the people that voted for him. Not to the rich pushing globalization; they're going to make out quite well from him. So on one hand, I do understand the desire for boat-rocking—but when the form they chose was a game of Russian Roulette against themselves, my sympathy ra…

I think some of them know that. Would it really be any better if they'd not rioted in the voting booth? If anything the trends that are destroying the American working and middle class are accelerating. They have nothing to lose that wouldn't be lost anyway. You're totally right that the result will just make them angrier and the cycle will repeat. This is how civilizations fall. If liberals want to do anything about…

I've started describing Brexit as "anti-globalisation riots for the over-50s". Instead of throwing a park bench through the window of a Starbucks they're going for something much more disruptive.

Re: That sinking feeling

#84

Post by dragonwriter »

pjc50 wrote: post #38
bilbo0s wrote: post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

> implementing the will of the people > best of your ability. Leaving aside the plain lack of ability from those running the show, as written this is a mandate for the "Norway option" - EEA and free movement, ECJ etc, but not actually in the EU. This is basically as close to the status quo as possible except we'd give up our ability to vote on EU rules and just have to accept them. However, when this is suggested, a…

> Leaving aside the plain lack of ability from those running the show, as written this is a mandate for the "Norway option" - EEA and free movement, ECJ etc, but not actually in the EU

I'm pretty sure opposition to free movement was a key underpinning of Brexit support, so I don't think the Brexit vote can be seen as a mandate for the “Norway option”.

Also, not sure that that's an option that would actually be in the table for Britain; from the European side, it makes a lot of sense to support that as an option on the way (deeper) to into the European system, but not on the way out.

Re: That sinking feeling

#85

Post by scotchmi_st »

lozenge wrote: post #4

Entertaining, but realistically the UK will just get a "bad deal". Life will go on, political parties are blamed, then we get to repeat it all again because the next party to be elected does it on a platform of "renegotiating".

That assumes someone, at some point, takes a path other than the one of least resistance and faces down the Rees-Moggs. Given the concessions to the whitepaper produced last month, and the track-record of the government since 2015 or before, that doesn't seem at all likely. If that doesn't happen then we'll be leaving the EU automatically next March.

Life will of course go on. The sun will still shine. But the idea that things will stay more or less the same in that case are mistaken.

Re: That sinking feeling

#86

Post by NeedMoreTea »

ttepasse wrote: post #77
NeedMoreTea wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every other time nations have had disappointing or unplanned referendum results, such as those nations that require referenda on EU treaties, there's been a second vote by way of confirmation. I don't think anyone has ever had a third attempt "to get the right answer". :) Ireland voted against the Nice treaty in 2001, 54% against. A year later 62% voted in favour of it on a higher turnout. It is inconceivable that a…

So, what happened in the year between the referenda? Yes, the treaty was changed for the Irish. Ireland then voted about the changed treaty, not the original one.

If they'd gone for a second referendum the UK could have negotiated from a position of relative strength ("guys, we have to offer them something, they voted to leave").

The government might have come out the other side looking relatively good, like Mrs Thatcher's after renegotiating the rebate. It certainly wouldn't have been worse than this farce.

Re: That sinking feeling

#87

Post by ardillaroja »

craigsmansion wrote: post #71
bilbo0s wrote: post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

> but I think that they had a vote. Norway also had a vote on the EU. I was also close. "No" won. What Norway didn't implement was a "winner takes all" approach. They're not in the EU. They're not in the Customs union. They are in the EEA. Everybody wins, everybody loses, but nobody feels like their wishes have been completely ignored. There is no reason the results of the Brexit referendum couldn't have been interpr…

I'm no fan of May and this is probably giving her too much credit (and oversimplifying) but is it possible she's nailing this?

Her "Brexit means brexit" and "No deal is better than a bad deal" rhetoric has kept the hardline Brexiteer tories from throwing her overboard. But maybe after a 'long, hard fight' she gives a theatrical sigh and accepts the Norway deal. Everyone gives a resigned shrug and we don't have country-wide riots.

Re: That sinking feeling

#88

Post by adamrezich »

andruby wrote: post #47
bilbo0s wrote: post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

You should ask the people the same question again, now that they've had some time to inform themselves of what "leaving the EU" really means. I wouldn't bet any money on it, but I wouldn't be surprised if the majority would now vote Remain.

Why "should" the Brexit referendum get the special privilege of a "do-over?" I have no idea how the law works over there but surely that would set some sort of terrible precedent?

I have zero skin in that game but the idea that people can espouse the virtues of democracy one minute only to make endless excuses as to why the result of a wholly democratic vote is wrong, invalid, or otherwise "deserves" a do-over the next minute makes zero sense to me as an American.

Either you trust the will of the people or you don't.

Re: That sinking feeling

#89

Post by YeGoblynQueenne »

Symmetry wrote: post #53
bilbo0s wrote: post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

Two things. First, the UK is a representative democracy ruled by Parliament and if Parliament decides they don't want to do something they don't have to and the way for the people to indicate their displeasure is to elect new people to Parliament. Second, the will of the people is a nebulous thing. Brexit won with slightly more than half the vote but that was in 2016. Since then many Brexit voters have died, many new…

It is also very likely that, if a new referendum reversed the result, it would do so with an equally slight margin to the original referendum. And that would solve nothing. We can't have referendums until we get it "right" (or until we get a large enough margin).

As to the change in the public opinion, polls have shown that many people who voted Remain don't actually want a second referendum, they just want to "get on with it" and implement the results of the first one. My intuition is that the vast majority do so out of a misguided belief that a democratically taken decision cannot be overtaken democratically, that not implementing the result of the referendum (even if they disagree with it) is undemocratic and that parliament is obliged to follow the results of the referendum even though it was not binding (i.e. they don't understand the words "non-binding"). In other words, they misguidedly believe that the democratic thing is to go ahead with the Brexit, regardless of any circumstances, changed or not. And they are prepared to fight for democracy with all their might, even if they don't really understand it. Therefore many would probably vote "Leave" in a second referendum, thinking they were doing the right and principled thing. And if the decision was reversed, these same Remainers would descend on the streets and riot, and demand the heads of the Enemies of the People who dared oppose themselves to their will.

In short, having another referendum now would create even more chaos than the first.

For the record, I'm an EU immigrant to the UK and Brexit seriously spoils my ointment. I'm as anti-Brexit as it's possible to be. However, I don't think a new referendum is a solution. I don't think there is any solution- no realistic ones anyway. The country put a pistol to its temple and pulled the trigger. Now we're in the time between the gun having gone off and the bullet hitting.

There is no turning back :(

Re: That sinking feeling

#90

Post by orwin »

afsina wrote: post #62
consto wrote: post #26

While the article may seem alarmist, considering how little the government has achieved in the 762 days since the referendum, I too have little hope of any meaningful progress being made. We have 240 days left, little idea what the government even wants, and Theresa May is in the headlines for snatching milk from children. Not that the opposition is in much better shape. I do not know what Brexit the UK will get, but…

Alarmist is an understatement. Especially last part sounds like delusional to me.

Yes, it is alarmist.

But england did not train ANY new border&custom agent in case of a hard brexit, unlike Ireland and Netherland (and France already have some somehow). The renewment of the Touquet deal still isn't done, and France could very well say "no deal mean no deal" in case of a hard brexit, or ask for even more money to act as England border patrol. Spanish government don't care for Gibraltar, so transfering daily necessity (food and meds) will probably become more expensive (you can't say "no" to american military bases in Europe, but UK ones don't carry the same weight).

Anyway, hard Brexit will be hard on UK, but it will be hard for EU too. But it will be worse politicaly if EU look weak in front of UK, so either UK cave, either we're in for a loose/loose more game.

Post reply on HN