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That sinking feeling

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61–70 of 178 posts

Re: That sinking feeling

#61
post #57

Just because of a customs border, one doesn't have to have road blocks and controls. Seems to be an assumption, but I don't agree, one can keep an opening border anyway, even if you have customs.

You need to have _something_ because otherwise you have a gateway for smuggling.

Re: That sinking feeling

#62
post #26

While the article may seem alarmist, considering how little the government has achieved in the 762 days since the referendum, I too have little hope of any meaningful progress being made. We have 240 days left, little idea what the government even wants, and Theresa May is in the headlines for snatching milk from children. Not that the opposition is in much better shape. I do not know what Brexit the UK will get, but…

Alarmist is an understatement. Especially last part sounds like delusional to me.

Re: That sinking feeling

#63
post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

The problem is that it wasn't a legitimate vote, free off outside influence. The Russian troll factory was hard at work influencing the outcome of that referendum. So what's the actual will of the people?

By that standard, voting is impossible. There was plenty of outside influence in favor of Remain, too, including the President of the US campaigning in favor of Remain and threatening trade war actions if they did Brexit, and I don't think it would exactly a fair characterization to say that the EU itself quietly stood by and waited for the will of the people of the UK to be revealed. Votes will never be hermetically sealed from the outside world.

Re: That sinking feeling

#64
post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

Every other time nations have had disappointing or unplanned referendum results, such as those nations that require referenda on EU treaties, there's been a second vote by way of confirmation. I don't think anyone has ever had a third attempt "to get the right answer". :)

Ireland voted against the Nice treaty in 2001, 54% against. A year later 62% voted in favour of it on a higher turnout.

It is inconceivable that a second EU referendum in the UK would vote leave.

Re: That sinking feeling

#65
post #62
post #26

While the article may seem alarmist, considering how little the government has achieved in the 762 days since the referendum, I too have little hope of any meaningful progress being made. We have 240 days left, little idea what the government even wants, and Theresa May is in the headlines for snatching milk from children. Not that the opposition is in much better shape. I do not know what Brexit the UK will get, but…

Alarmist is an understatement. Especially last part sounds like delusional to me.

I've already had the experience of "no fresh food in the shops", and it was earlier this year when we had two feet of snow. Supply chain disruption to some extent somewhere for at least a few days looks extremely likely to me.

What I'm worried about is "cascade failure". So far there's been very little street violence, apart from the murder of Jo Cox. I'm worried about what might happen if, say, the Met accidentally kill someone and set off a riot at the same time as all this is happening.

Re: That sinking feeling

#66
post #4

Entertaining, but realistically the UK will just get a "bad deal". Life will go on, political parties are blamed, then we get to repeat it all again because the next party to be elected does it on a platform of "renegotiating".

Even if the UK just get a bad deal, it might have some real hard consequences. UK will adapt, whatever happen, but adaptation takes time. In this time of adaptation, the short term consequences of the "bad deal" might still yield some really bad results.

I mainly think of layoff in company that highly rely on the trade agreement with the EU to sustain their business. An augmentation of unemployment combined with a possible devaluation of the money and an increasing inflation due to new importation taxes on basic needs items (food medicine, ...) could have some disastrous consequences on the lower and middle classes.

It could convince Scottland, which already struggle with poverty and voted against the Brexit (62%), to separate from the UK and try to join the EU (the last referendum was "only" 55% against leaving the UK). This might create even more trouble.

It is likely that a bad deal might yield enough difficult short term consequences to spiral out of control. A strong political leadership will be needed to handle them before they do. And currently, it is not unrealistic to say that no parties are ready to handle them.

Re: That sinking feeling

#67
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that it wasn't a legitimate vote, free off outside influence. The Russian troll factory was hard at work influencing the outcome of that referendum. So what's the actual will of the people?

By that standard, voting is impossible. There was plenty of outside influence in favor of Remain, too, including the President of the US campaigning in favor of Remain and threatening trade war actions if they did Brexit, and I don't think it would exactly a fair characterization to say that the EU itself quietly stood by and waited for the will of the people of the UK to be revealed. Votes will never be hermetically…

The apparent spending violations are probably a stronger case for the vote being tainted.

Re: That sinking feeling

#68
post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

Don't forget there's considerable interest in the funding and behaviour of the leave campaign, who appear to have broken several laws.

Or that under 18s weren't allowed to vote, even though they're going to be disproportionately affected.

Re: That sinking feeling

#69
post #24

Just an outsider's opinion, but I think that they had a vote. They probably should not have voted "Leave", but they did. So now you have to get on with the business of implementing the will of the people. It might come out just as the author has outlined, or it might not be that bad, or it might be far worse than even the author has envisioned. The thing is, whatever the consequences and benefits are, they are conseq…

The problem is that it wasn't a legitimate vote, free off outside influence. The Russian troll factory was hard at work influencing the outcome of that referendum. So what's the actual will of the people?

Outside influence doesn't invalidate a national referendum. If Russians convinced Brits to leave the EU, that still means that Brits wanted to leave the EU.

I'm not saying to let them do as they wish, but on the face of it, you can't call it a perversion of democracy. It's a perversion of communication networks.

Re: That sinking feeling

#70

This is from an outsider to UK politics but it seems weird to me that we didn't see the Lib Dems or some other smallish party position themselves as the party of "We won't Brexit" and pick up a lot of the Remain votes?

The UK has first-past-the-post elections in each constituency. Unless the LibDems can show that they have a credible chance of winning in each district, voting for them means wasting your vote just like voting for a third party candidate in America.

Also the media does not cover what the LibDems are saying much at all. They don't even report on Labour much, just the various factions of the Conservative party. I can't even blame the media. The smallest change in the internal alliances of the Tories can have a huge impact on the country right now. What Labour or the LibDems say has exactly zero effect until the next election, unless they can somehow get together with some Conservatives.

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