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Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

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Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#81

Post by mulmen »

kylemuir wrote: post #64
deepsun wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Won't school teachers' salaries grow in presence of diminishing supply and stable demand?

Speaking from a city (Auckland) where house prices have sky rocketed this hasn't happened yet. Prices in the area I live in use to be $100k-ish for a 3 bdrm home 10 years ago. Now they're $760k and I live >30 miles from the CBD. Teachers salaries have continued to get "cost of living" increases and we have news stories like this popping up all the time: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/102707618

My home state is something like 48th in education spending and considers it a point of pride because it "makes educators work harder". It was normal for every student to be asked to bring a box of kleenex to school every year because there was no budget to provide that resource.

It terrifies me to see how poorly we treat educators and education in general. As a highly developed nation our only chance for the future is to maintain our edge. We are borrowing against the intellectual (and in the case of public university tuition, also the financial) capital of the future and I'm not even sure what we are doing with the money.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#82

Post by mbesto »

scythe wrote: post #48
mbesto wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recently sold property in the bay area. It's crazy indeed, but if I had the chance I'd sit on it for at least another 10 years. There no signs of progress to increase inventory and between Google/Apple/Facebook (and name every other large tech company) there's enough cash in their coffers to hire 300,000 more engineers making $300k/year. Which basically means even in a massive downturn, they're still going to hire…

>There's no signs of progress to increase inventory SB 827? That's what's kept me from buying. The fact that housing in the Bay is political scares me off. I'll bet on economics every day, but not on politics.

SB827 passing will only begin to tickle the situation. It's a good start, but nowhere near what needs to be done. NIMBY'ism is part regulation, part culture. I don't see the culture part going away anytime soon.

Out of curiosity - is there anywhere in the US in history where housing that had the highest value in the country was affected massively (negatively) by regulation?

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#83

Post by seltzered_ »

BurningFrog wrote: post #75
jorblumesea wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seattle is already on the path to being SF junior, and house prices are far beyond what is affordable for most. We're not SF prices yet (or hopefully ever) but pretty crazy right now. Sad, because what made the city interesting is being actively driven out.

I understand that Seattle is still allowing housing construction though?

To some degree yes but there's still neighborhoods that will reject proposals. There's all sorts of debate on this (just yesterday saw windshield flyers against upzones) - to summarize in a fun way see https://twitter.com/YIMBYwiki/status/951255440481857536

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#84

Post by tjr225 »

mulmen wrote: post #67
jorblumesea wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seattle is already on the path to being SF junior, and house prices are far beyond what is affordable for most. We're not SF prices yet (or hopefully ever) but pretty crazy right now. Sad, because what made the city interesting is being actively driven out.

When did you move to Seattle? 2011 for me. The city has certainly changed but I'm still unclear on this nebulous culture shift that has supposedly "ruined" Seattle. What was more interesting about Seattle when you moved here vs today?

I moved out here last year - I do not live in Seattle proper, but I work there. I love Seattle but it is a crazy town that to me seems like it must've always been in flux. For the love of God do not move here if you don't want to be stressed out about housing costs and don't want to deal with an insane commute regardless of almost anywhere you live.

I'm trying to find it but there was this old video recording from either 1995 or 2005 (I don't remember which) of a Bob Dylan-ish parody song being performed on acoustic guitar and the lyrics were complaining about the exact same things back then that you hear complained about here today. As a matter of fact, don't move here if you can't handle complaining.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#85

Post by d--b »

htormey wrote: post #50
d--b wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we're already seeing the signs: - stock market is less bullish on tech: https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=NQ - less startup funding: https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/30/theres-an-implosion-of-ear... - mortgage costs going up: https://www.zillow.com/mortgage-rates/ca/bay-area/

It really doesn’t feel like a correction right now at least in the tech sector: - The job market is unbelievably hot. - I don’t see why any of the big tech companies will turn in outrageously bad numbers this quarter. - Everyone I talk to is hiring. - A bunch of people at startups that went public or are about to go public will unlock a lot of stock really soon. Yet I still feel a bit nervous. I’ve been in the Bay Ar…

My view is that many companies in the US are over-funded because the fed stimulated the economy too much. Investors flocked to the stock market in 08, when there was no money to be made in bonds, and then the stock market got whipped up by more people joining the trend. Then it happened again when Trump got elected and investors thought republicans would be easy on businesses.

All that funding is being burnt by companies to grow and compete with each other, which is why you see an overheated job market. They also inflate the value of GAFA, because these companies spend a lot in software, hardware, cloud services and ads.

When interest rates go up and bond yields get better though, it's likely that investors will no longer fund companies as much as they used to (which is why I think we're starting to see a slowdown in stock prices). This slowdown in funding will cause companies to have some painful debt crunch, and start the bursting of the bubble...

Anyway, just my opinion

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#86

Post by hiram112 »

htormey wrote: post #38
rubicon33 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe tech salaries will decline starting in about 5 years, and accelerating in 10 years. Why? HUGE influx of people into the field, fueled by government programs, people in tech pushing for more people to join (why they would ever do this is beyond me, say goodbye to your salary), education in high school and younger, wide availability to learn online, outsourcing, etc... The influx of workers will simply outstr…

I’m not so sure. Many tech related jobs are fundamentally hard things for the majority of people to do. Even those with college degrees. The problem with a bad hire in tech is that they can be worse than useless. Mentoring a junior software engineer can be very expensive and not many companies want to do that in an environment like the Bay Area where people hop between jobs frequently. Personally I think this is very…

Tend to agree. Law went through a huge spike in graduates and private law schools last decade, and when the economy hit bottom, many lawyers felt the worst of it, especially recent grads who've still never really been able to get a foot in the door, while still paying off six figures of law school debt.

The difference between law and software engineering is that you can't really BS your way in software for too long without being caught. I knew a few friends who would never have been able to pass the math and engineering courses a decent CS program requires, but they were admitted and essentially paid a huge bribe (with loans) to get a law degree from a low-tier school, cram for months for the bar, and get certified.

But they never made much money in law, and probably would have been better off choosing another path.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#88

Post by tehlike »

sidlls wrote: post #32
tehlike wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cap rates are hovering around 2% Hong kong is worse, i hear.

2% in SJ? That's insane. I'm paying 0.35% of the average sale price in rent for a townhouse in my community (San Mateo/Burlingame area).

Looks like my data was old :)

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#89

Post by mulmen »

tjr225 wrote: post #84
mulmen wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When did you move to Seattle? 2011 for me. The city has certainly changed but I'm still unclear on this nebulous culture shift that has supposedly "ruined" Seattle. What was more interesting about Seattle when you moved here vs today?

I moved out here last year - I do not live in Seattle proper, but I work there. I love Seattle but it is a crazy town that to me seems like it must've always been in flux. For the love of God do not move here if you don't want to be stressed out about housing costs and don't want to deal with an insane commute regardless of almost anywhere you live. I'm trying to find it but there was this old video recording from ei…

Seattle is a boom(and bust)town. Always has been. That's what makes it appealing to me. I'll ride out whatever happens next because I have no illusions that this crazy growth can continue. I'm willing to accept the complaining, it hasn't driven me out yet. As one of the most educated cities in the nation I expect to be able to challenge perceptions. I hear the line repeated often in local media but nobody has ever been able to explain to me what magic thing Seattle has lost. I suspect that's because it hasn't actually lost it.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#90

Post by diogenescynic »

ryguytilidie wrote: post #66
ninkendo wrote: post #4

Lived in a rental house in SJ for 7 years now watching prices go up and deciding to sit it out, after having lost 30% on my house in the midwest years ago. I’m kicking myself for not buying earlier, but not a chance you’d get me to buy in now. We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO.

"We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO." People have been saying this every single day since I moved to San Francisco in 2009. I guess if you keep predicting it eventually, you might end up being right, but its not exactly insightful.

Markets can stay irrational for a long period of time and then correct pretty quickly. I’d be surprised if prices aren’t near a plateau. A lot of tech companies are shifting hiring to other states. I don’t see the Bay Area growing forever and rent/home prices won’t go up exponentially forever.
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