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Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

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Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#51

Post by jorblumesea »

taurath wrote: post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

Seattle is already on the path to being SF junior, and house prices are far beyond what is affordable for most. We're not SF prices yet (or hopefully ever) but pretty crazy right now. Sad, because what made the city interesting is being actively driven out.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#52

Post by ndesaulniers »

deepsun wrote: post #43
tomrod wrote: post #36

Yeah... that's not going to be sustainable. I know folks like to point at the big techcos in the area being flush with cash as evidence this can continue a long time. And in a vacuum, wage growth in tech could continue to keep pace, perhaps. But that is 300k in appreciation a year. How far out will school teachers, janitors, chefs, mechanics, city employees, and similar need to live before their not-quite-as-quickly-…

Won't school teachers' salaries grow in presence of diminishing supply and stable demand?

It's not.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#53

Post by selimthegrim »

tehlike wrote: post #26
abritinthebay wrote: post #8

Sounds about right. Similar around the Bay in general tbh. My wife and I bought a place in Oakland in December and it's already up 20% . That's insane .

Something did happen in january.

What was that, for us non-Bay Area dwellers?

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#54

Post by jiveturkey »

nradov wrote: post #45
deepsun wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Won't school teachers' salaries grow in presence of diminishing supply and stable demand?

Proposition 13 imposes a fairly hard upper limit on the growth of teachers' salaries.

Not at all.

Prop 13 only has effect when houses do NOT sell. Whenever a property changes hands, which is the only event that matters wrt demand, it is assessed at current market value.

Prop 13 does have an effect but only in the manner in which it supresses sales.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#55

Post by paxys »

AceJohnny2 wrote: post #14
ninkendo wrote: post #4

Lived in a rental house in SJ for 7 years now watching prices go up and deciding to sit it out, after having lost 30% on my house in the midwest years ago. I’m kicking myself for not buying earlier, but not a chance you’d get me to buy in now. We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO.

> We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO. Not necessarily. Bubbles are based on speculation. The last bubble was powered by sub-prime mortgages, which is what burst. The Bay Area has the problem of ongoing immigration, a very highly paid demographic, and housing market that isn't keeping up. Simply, Offer Offer isn't looking to catch up any time soon [1], and demand crashing would mean the tech economy will have…

It may or may not be a bubble, and honestly I don't know which outcome is worse. That is what really scares me.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#56

Post by klipt »

jiveturkey wrote: post #54
nradov wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Proposition 13 imposes a fairly hard upper limit on the growth of teachers' salaries.

Not at all. Prop 13 only has effect when houses do NOT sell. Whenever a property changes hands, which is the only event that matters wrt demand, it is assessed at current market value. Prop 13 does have an effect but only in the manner in which it supresses sales.

It limits property tax to 1% which I believe is pretty low compared to other coastal states. Coincidentally, California's public schools have fallen down the rankings since it passed.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#57

Post by quickthrower2 »

tomrod wrote: post #36

Yeah... that's not going to be sustainable. I know folks like to point at the big techcos in the area being flush with cash as evidence this can continue a long time. And in a vacuum, wage growth in tech could continue to keep pace, perhaps. But that is 300k in appreciation a year. How far out will school teachers, janitors, chefs, mechanics, city employees, and similar need to live before their not-quite-as-quickly-…

Subprime loans FTW(&L)

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#58

Post by pkaye »

ninkendo wrote: post #4

Lived in a rental house in SJ for 7 years now watching prices go up and deciding to sit it out, after having lost 30% on my house in the midwest years ago. I’m kicking myself for not buying earlier, but not a chance you’d get me to buy in now. We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO.

I know many of my neighbors in the bay area bought long time ago (20 years) for maybe 1/5 of the current value. It would have to drop quite a bit to put them in the red. And they are getting the same high salary as any other techie. Of course the tech industry can eventually totally collapse but then why would people want to move in?

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#60

Post by rpearl »

rubicon33 wrote: post #30
pcwalton wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just bought a condo in SF myself. It was an agonizingly difficult decision that I had been contemplating for years and years before finally taking the plunge. Some of what drove my decision was that most experts don't believe that the Bay Area real estate market is a bubble [1] [2]. (I wouldn't wish the anxiety around this decision on anyone, least of all future generations, which is why I've resolved to buck the t…

If you're in it for the long haul, then it was a very wise decision. The bay area, specifically San Francisco, is one of the best real estate purchases anyone can make. It's geographically constrained and has historically shown to gain value over the past 100 years CONSISTENTLY. There will be some small bumps in the road here or there, but when you look back in 20, or 30 years, I can almost guarantee you're going to…

The fact that real estate is so fundamentally an investment here (in the US/in the western world) is a deep underlying part of the problem. I agree - this person made the right decision, from their point of view, and it will be a good return on investment. But I'm definitely sort of existentially disappointed in the sort of social system that makes housing an investment like this.
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