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Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

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41–50 of 247 posts

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#41
I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials.

In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has ridden the wave to prosperity. Most moved to Seattle (if looking for a career/home/etc), or Portland (if they pass the weird-test). There's been a steady trickle out of the Bay for anyone not in tech for the past decade, and now I think only 10% of them still remain. Now they're going to Colorado rather than Seattle, and a few more to Portland. Those that are currently missing the wave in Seattle are looking at moving to Colorado.

I have no idea which area is gonna be next - Colorado is now seen as the last "cool" place thats "affordable" and liberal (sorry screaming Coloradan's, you're next).

Personally, I just can't believe its gone on this long - the pressure release valve that I thought would be released from the bay every year for the last decade hasn't fully let go. Career or being able to afford a house seem to be mutually exclusive ideas if you're not in programming. This is creating a rather nomadic culture within my friend groups... welp, this area is too expensive, might as well move onto the next. Very few are putting down roots.

I wonder what this all will look like when we look back 20 years hence - was it really a bubble, or the creation of a permanent Elysium style class divide between those that had the capital (or took the risks) early, and those who didn't start out as well (or were conservative in leveraging themselves)? Every day it feels like I'm leading more towards the latter.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#42
post #7
post #4

Lived in a rental house in SJ for 7 years now watching prices go up and deciding to sit it out, after having lost 30% on my house in the midwest years ago. I’m kicking myself for not buying earlier, but not a chance you’d get me to buy in now. We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO.

I agree, it seems crazy to buy now. But will we actually see a crash, or just a period of stagnation?

It's pretty straightforward to look at prices throughout the course of the real-bubble and speculate about that fact.

A few places along the peninsula had stagnant or slowly rising property values, like Palo Alto. Values in SF either held or declined very little. Places like Oakland lost a little value and Hayward, maybe one of the least desirable areas around the bay regained all of its lost value in just a few years.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#43
post #36

Yeah... that's not going to be sustainable. I know folks like to point at the big techcos in the area being flush with cash as evidence this can continue a long time. And in a vacuum, wage growth in tech could continue to keep pace, perhaps. But that is 300k in appreciation a year. How far out will school teachers, janitors, chefs, mechanics, city employees, and similar need to live before their not-quite-as-quickly-…

Won't school teachers' salaries grow in presence of diminishing supply and stable demand?

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#45
post #43
post #36

Yeah... that's not going to be sustainable. I know folks like to point at the big techcos in the area being flush with cash as evidence this can continue a long time. And in a vacuum, wage growth in tech could continue to keep pace, perhaps. But that is 300k in appreciation a year. How far out will school teachers, janitors, chefs, mechanics, city employees, and similar need to live before their not-quite-as-quickly-…

Won't school teachers' salaries grow in presence of diminishing supply and stable demand?

Proposition 13 imposes a fairly hard upper limit on the growth of teachers' salaries.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#46
post #36

Yeah... that's not going to be sustainable. I know folks like to point at the big techcos in the area being flush with cash as evidence this can continue a long time. And in a vacuum, wage growth in tech could continue to keep pace, perhaps. But that is 300k in appreciation a year. How far out will school teachers, janitors, chefs, mechanics, city employees, and similar need to live before their not-quite-as-quickly-…

Until supply and demand increases their salaries as well.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#47
post #43
post #36

Yeah... that's not going to be sustainable. I know folks like to point at the big techcos in the area being flush with cash as evidence this can continue a long time. And in a vacuum, wage growth in tech could continue to keep pace, perhaps. But that is 300k in appreciation a year. How far out will school teachers, janitors, chefs, mechanics, city employees, and similar need to live before their not-quite-as-quickly-…

Won't school teachers' salaries grow in presence of diminishing supply and stable demand?

[deleted]

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#48
post #25
post #4

Lived in a rental house in SJ for 7 years now watching prices go up and deciding to sit it out, after having lost 30% on my house in the midwest years ago. I’m kicking myself for not buying earlier, but not a chance you’d get me to buy in now. We’re in a bubble that’s ready to burst IMO.

I recently sold property in the bay area. It's crazy indeed, but if I had the chance I'd sit on it for at least another 10 years. There no signs of progress to increase inventory and between Google/Apple/Facebook (and name every other large tech company) there's enough cash in their coffers to hire 300,000 more engineers making $300k/year. Which basically means even in a massive downturn, they're still going to hire…

>There's no signs of progress to increase inventory

SB 827? That's what's kept me from buying. The fact that housing in the Bay is political scares me off. I'll bet on economics every day, but not on politics.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#49
post #41

I have a pretty large group of generally geek-oriented friends across most of the western US, and tracking their migration patterns has been fascinating - we're basically all 1980's-born millennials. In the 2000's was when we met, those who had grown up there and those who were moving were in the same age group. Only about 40% were college educated or in tech/programming oriented roles. Of those, a small amount has r…

We have no avocados here. This isn't the state you are looking for. Move along. Move along.

Re: Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose

#50
post #37
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what do you think the first signs of this will be?

I think we're already seeing the signs: - stock market is less bullish on tech: https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=NQ - less startup funding: https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/30/theres-an-implosion-of-ear... - mortgage costs going up: https://www.zillow.com/mortgage-rates/ca/bay-area/

It really doesn’t feel like a correction right now at least in the tech sector:

- The job market is unbelievably hot.

- I don’t see why any of the big tech companies will turn in outrageously bad numbers this quarter.

- Everyone I talk to is hiring.

- A bunch of people at startups that went public or are about to go public will unlock a lot of stock really soon.

Yet I still feel a bit nervous. I’ve been in the Bay Area since 2008 and I remember how fast the place cleared out after the last big crash. I could see some stocks taking a hit in the short term however I just don’t see what’s on the horizon that’s going to do in tech in particular.

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