Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

> 1- NS1 along NS2 are (were) shutdown and clearly these were not going to re-open, not before the end of the war - not politically acceptable for Putin, even less for Germany.

No, some Germans were asking for NS2. Here is one article after a very quick search from 8/19: https://www.politico.eu/article/vice-president-of-the-german...

Another:

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/europe/germanys-kla...

"Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has criticised German leaders' calls to initiate talks regarding Nord Stream 2. "Calls by some German politicians to launch NS2 for a little while and close it later are totally irrational. This resembles drug addiction when a person says “Just one last time!” without realizing the devastating consequences of each “last time”."

So there is political support for German government if they needed it. And it was in play. Important people were tweeting about it. :}

> Not politically acceptable to Putin.

I think he is not happy today, at all. Russians are supposedly running to borders to leave, the famous Operation is a shitzkrieg, his last move is dig in, annex, and hope and pray Medvedev's mad russian act has convinced opposite number psychos over here who are in charge of our end of world weapons that "we are not bluffing".

Imagine the PR if great Uncle Vodya like father christmas opens the pipes to a freezing Germany ("gratis!" Its our gift). Is the German goverment going to say "Nein"?

To sum, you must be joking. This Nord Stream was Russia's ace in the hole. Now it is gone.

The OP link goes to "forsvaret.dk" wich is the Danish military.

I am a Dane. I think I may be able to offer a perspective on this that non-Danes will simply miss.

While being a regular reader, for posting this I have created a new account that will not be used again.

Please excuse me for being a bit verbose, as this is not simple:

ONE First, I am not positive if this technically happened inside our territorial waters or just outside, but it seems at least some of it happened inside. Meaning: We didn't defend our own waters properly.

The area as of now has been blocked for traffic, and we have sent a minor military vessel there (a fregate) to at least signal that the matter is of some interest. We can not boast of a large navy or a particularly large military at that.

TWO The only part of our military that is in some way of significance is... our Divers Corps. We have excellent divers, which are given tasks comparable to those of the more well known US Seals (only more specialized as the Divers Corps is smaller than the Seals Force and not able to span such a large set of roles). Suffice to say that they sould be considered competent in all things on and below water.

These competent people will most likely be capable of investigating the technical side of this matter fully and rather quickly if they are allowed to, which it does not seem like.

THREE In stead it seems like our intelligence agencies (in cooperation with our so-called "allies") will be tasked with that job. We all know by now how these information exchanges work (thanks, Snowden) and if there is even a remote possibility that one of these "allies" have been involved, we should not expect that to surface from any investigation.

FOUR Our intelligence agencies... (we have two: A Police Intelligence Agency and a Defence Intelligence Agency) are more or less at war. The civilian agency (Police) has literally arrested the head of the military intelligence agency on charges somewhat similar to "high treason" for what amounts to be evidence falling totally apart (or so it seems).

FIVE Also, we are facing a general election. Very soon. The government is going to fall in less than two weeks - we know this for sure as it has been declared by their support party. Why?

SIX Our head of government and the whole administration has tecnically broken the constitution (on a matter entirely unrelated to Gas or Ukraine).

SEVEN It seeems there is at lest 50% chance that our current government will not get re-elected

EIGHT We operate a multiple-party system, and this election will see at least two new parties of unknown -- possibly big -- impact (as they were formed recently by some voter magnets that broke out from previous parties and have a less than complete policy in place)

NINE Our current government is dominated by a party (Social Democrats) which is notoriously "America Friendly". They have sold out critical infrastructure, engaged widely with the likes of Boston Consulting Group, etc. and ..well, let's just say examples are legio. This netted a former Head of State a very well paid job in some Facebook Ethical Committee, and other former ministers have also been rewarded for their support of American interests in similar fashions.

TEN So, we have a coastline. A significant harbour (Esbjerg) is right now being refactored in order to be able to receive the largest American Navy vessels with the stated aim of arming Eastern Europe. A pretty large US ship, IIRC, "Endeavour" recently practiced unloading of tanks and other stuff there. [0]

ELEVEN The deal has been struck betweeen the government and NATO and/or USA. The population as such was not consulted on the matter, as we have what is known as "representative democracy". It was hasted through in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion as if it was a necessity for Danmark.

TWELVE Our defence minister visited the USA a few weeks ago (Sept 1). In extreme secrecy our government is negotiating a deal with the US that will allow USA to set up permanent military presence ("bases") on our soil.

TWELVE (B) This is the same government that will fall in a few weeks, and be replaced by who-knows-what

THIRTEEN One possible relevant location of one of these bases has been mentioned to be... the island of Bornholm

FOURTEEN This island lies strategically at the entrance to the Baltic Sea. You can not enter or exit the Baltic Sea without passing it.

FIFTEEN Russia is not amused. Especially since American forces were preacticing "extended fire capabilities" there in May. Russia claims that it is a violation of an agreement tat the Danish govenment as well as USA does not seem to recognize [1][2]

SIXTEEN This island is in the general neighborood of the damaged pipelines. That is, very close.

SEVENTEEN Few monts ago a large Naval excercise called BALTOPS22 took place in the general vicinity of said island. The US navy participated [3] eg. "by executing complex multi-vehicle UUV missions with modified U.S. Navy fleet assets." - allegedly in the field of mine detection.

EIGHTEEN UUV means "unmanned underwater vehicle". In [3] it is stated that increasing the distance these UUVs can be controlled from was important.

NINETEEN Incidentally, a few years ago, in 2015, the Swedish military actually found a (cable-controlled) drone loaded with explosives near a Nord Stream pipeline. The communications cable was "cut off" so it could not detonate.[4]

TWENTY (and closing) As stated above signifcant US military interests hinges on support from a Danish government that is about to fall in mere weeks. The current government has been "very cooperative" to US interests (to put it politely), and the future government is unknown.

CONCLUDING Feel free to connect these 20 dots as best you can.

---- [0] (in Danish) https://arbejderen.dk/indland/usas-krigsskibe-og-bombefly-in... [1] https://www.thelocal.dk/20220407/danish-pm-rebuts-russian-am... [2] https://www.dvidshub.net/news/422733/us-military-makes-histo... [3] https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunit... [4] https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/explosive-laden-drone-...

> "I promise you: We will be able to do it."

While the idea was almost certainly to warn Putin, it doesn't seem very smart to me to have said it out loud.

1. The current administration in the United States is in general anti-fossil fuel development.

2. The United States is already at max capacity for its export capabilities. There is no incremental supply to satisfy demand.

3. Destroying foreign supply when demand can't be met only serves to destroy demand because it forces the market to move to alternatives (case in point: OPEC and how they try to not let oil prices get too high or low).

It's ludicrous to suggest the US has a significant economic interest in executing some sort of industrial sabotage on NS1/2.

It possibly is in Russia's interests. If they predict that Europe is on the verge of successfully becoming energy independent and the demise of NS2 through non-sabotage means is all but an inevitability at this point, then it's optimal for them to use that sunk cost for their own benefit, in this case framing the Ukrainians or US in order to turn Europe against Ukraine or to fracture NATO an EU cohesion by stoking distrust.

It's an intelligent leveraging of a sunk cost when most don't realize it's a sunk cost or don't understand the concept of sunk costs.