Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea • Hacker News Board

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#761

Post by lr1970 » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 1:47 AM UTC

jpfr wrote: post #192

NeverFade wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The next question is, who did it? The Russians. > It doesn't seem like something in Russia's interest, they've been wanting to get that pipeline approved and operational. Once their invasion faltered, and with the recent escalation, they had no hope of that happening. The current Russian regime will never be able to repair relations with the west to the extent that will allow the Nordstream pipelines to resume oper…

That doesn't make any sense. If the Russians wanted to stop the gas supply, they could just stop supplying gas. And they had already stopped. Destroying the infrastructure doesn't give Russia an additional capability (degree of freedom). It removes the degree of freedom to restart supplying gas. And thus removes this option for Russia to use as a bargaining chip in negotiations. I would say this is either the US, Ukr…

> I would say this is either the US, Ukraine or a EU state.

Or UK ?

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#762

Post by ethagknight » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 1:47 AM UTC

woodruffw wrote: post #597

thiagoharry wrote: post #576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA is the country that threatened an attack against the gas pipeline. "If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the -- the border of Ukraine again, then there will be -- there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2," Biden said during the press conference with Scholz, who did not go as far as Biden, but insisted the U.S. and Germany remain "absolutely united." https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-meet-…

It's a serious stretch to read this as threatening an attack on the pipeline itself. Not only is it from over 6 months ago, but it doesn't make any sense: NS2 is controlled by the Germans themselves, and there's no strategic value in blowing it up rather than just turning it off (or on). The more sensible interpretation is that Biden was threatening to fully support Germany's plans to become energy independent. And t…

NS2 is owned by gazprom through a German entity. It's Russian controlled.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#763

Post by margarina72 » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 1:49 AM UTC

Gas was providing Russia a strong leverage in its relationship with Europe.

This leverage is now gone.

It will only make the whole region more unstable, more dependent on other international powers.

Friendly backstabbing from your allies is not something unheard of.

This winter people will die of cold, because somebody needed to make a point and get everyone on board.

Politics can be harsh sometime, but you cannot make an omelet without breaking some eggs.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#764

Post by Invictus0 » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 1:51 AM UTC

2-718-281-828 wrote: post #392

sudden_dystopia wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not a conspiracy theory. Some group conspired to sabotage the pipelines. It’s a conspiracy fact. The only theoretical aspect is who did it and that’s more of a hypothesis at this point. It’s a conspiracy hypothesis.

but it's a theory as of now and hence a "conspiracy theory". I'd like to mention that for me "conspiracy theory" is not a term I frown upon. It's been labelled as something equivalent to "dangerous tin foil hat bullshit" by some politicians and news outlets who'd like us to believe that history unfolds linearly and obviously.

"For me the word doesn't mean what everyone else thinks it means"

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#765

Post by politician » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 1:52 AM UTC

It’s highly probable that this is a strategic response to Putin’s increasing rhetoric about using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#766

Post by knodi123 » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 1:56 AM UTC

margarina72 wrote: post #763

Gas was providing Russia a strong leverage in its relationship with Europe. This leverage is now gone. It will only make the whole region more unstable, more dependent on other international powers. Friendly backstabbing from your allies is not something unheard of. This winter people will die of cold, because somebody needed to make a point and get everyone on board. Politics can be harsh sometime, but you cannot ma…

> but you cannot make an omelet without breaking some eggs.

That's such a benign metaphor that it barely even fits. Saying "you can't make an international peace treaty without murdering a bunch of random vulnerable innocents", and it sounds properly gruesome, although I admit it doesn't roll as trippingly off the tongue.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#767

Post by bagels » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 2:01 AM UTC

oldshatterhand wrote: post #334

Was the pipeline insured? Who will benefit from an incident? :)

As my neighbor said, baselessly inventing a conspiracy theory on the spot while we watched a nearby apartment building burn, "follow the money".

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#768

Post by twelve40 » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 2:03 AM UTC

SanjayMehta wrote: post #725

yznovyak wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Common theme I've heard here (Kyiv, Ukraine) is that this sabotage is in Putin's direct interest. There are rumours of political infighting among Russia's leaders and that there are several factions trying to seize power, however since there is no clear winner, those guys need powerful allies, EU being a very important one. The idea is that Europe really wants to buy Russian gas, but not from Putin, so if Russia some…

Russia could have just turned off the tap. The sabotage ensures Europe can't back off from the US sanctions now. Wrecks Germany's economy, thereby eliminating a rival. VW et al are already talking about moving production to the US. And Biden promised to take care of NS 2 back in February itself. https://youtu.be/OS4O8rGRLf8

This. Amazing how people get caught up in their fantasies and ignore simple facts.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#769

Post by OrvalWintermute » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 2:04 AM UTC

trasz wrote: post #395

philliphaydon wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Putin, knowing that the pipelines are no longer practically useful Didn't he also sign up to build a new pipeline into China? Looks like China stands to win from all this, if Russia can't send the gas anywhere China can dictate the price they will pay.

China is already dictating the price - it’s been like this even before war. Without gas they have no reason to tolerate Putin.

> Without gas they have no reason to tolerate Putin.

Nope.

If you think about this on a geopolitical scale, China has every interest in wanting their Northern border with Russia secure, and to advance the Chinese Belt & Road initiative, and collaborate on non-USD currency trading, and other things that make them both sanctions resistant. China also wants Russian Technology where they still hold leadership positions.

Most importantly, China wants Taiwan back.

The global balance of power may shift in China's favor if the best fabs in the world are suddenly Chinese, and they can sanction the US, limiting their access to chips.

These supply chain issues would be a great tool during wartime.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#770

Post by lurquer » Wed, Sep 28, 2022, 2:06 AM UTC

ALittleLight wrote: post #731

mort96 wrote: post #617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They said Putin's interest, not Russia's interest. Don't make the mistake of assuming Putin will act in accordance with Russia's interests.

On the one hand, the US explicitly, publicly, and repeatedly threatened to unilaterally stop the pipeline if Russia invaded Ukraine. The US has a clear benefit in the sense that they remove the option for European allies to buy Russian oil. The US also has the ability to do it in the form of ships in the area. On the other hand, perhaps it's in Putin's interest to destroy his own pipelines for some reason.

Amusing watching the mental contortions posters make to avoid admitting the obvious…

It’s like Cirque de Soleil.