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Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

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Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#331

Post by temp-dude-87844 »

jcranmer wrote: post #185
tpmx wrote: post #54

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

If you subscribe to the point of view that Russia's war on Ukraine isn't actually about Ukraine, but about causing lasting pain in Europe, then this action is perfectly rational for Russia.

It drives the market prices up (anything that spooks market participants will), and creates an ongoing situation that adds pressure on governments to act.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#332

Post by MasterYoda »

jcranmer wrote: post #185
tpmx wrote: post #54

The Swedish national seismic network picked up two explosions within kilometers of the reported gas leak locations yesterday. The time of the first explosion: Yesterday, Monday morning at 02:03 am, second one Monday evening at 7:04pm (local time, CEST). The reports of the gas leaks came at 1:52pm and 8:41pm, respectively - by means of ships reporting bubbling at the surface level. One of the two events registered at…

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

Gas prices had fallen back to the lowest levels in 3 months, but because of the sabotage, prices have gone up again because this has created uncertainty in the energy market.

The kremlin wants to deliberately destabilize Europe and make it as difficult as possible with a big energy crisis, so support and aid to Ukraine falls. And its going bad for putin and his war now so he is also desperate, just look at the crazy mobilization of 300.000 russian to the war.

The russians already know that these pipelines are dead and the export trough them will end and sabotaging them is very much in the russians interest because of the consequences and as we can see now increased energy costs in EU which benefits the russian agenda.

Some say its US because Biden talk. But both pipes was already closed. Nordstream 2 was never used and nordstream 1 was shut down by the russians. The US hade no reason because no gas was flowing.

IMHO its no doubt its the russians, they are the only one that gain from this, in their energy war against EU. They also have submarines in the baltic sea. And its shallow waters between Denmark and Sweden (just 11-18m) that big subs from other countries can not easy pass without getting noticed and a lot of traffic that make it risky.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#333

Post by rdtwo »

ed_balls wrote: post #305
MonkeyMalarky wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does everyone assume the need for submersibles? Why not a small patrol boat dropping some depth charges on a time delay in the middle of the night?

> patrol boat dropping some depth charges on a time delay in the middle of the night That's also an option, but you would have problems with precision and deniability*. You could use some WW2 style device and blame it on German mines that are still present.

It’s a pretty overt act to blow both up. Someone was making a statement

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#335

Post by justinzollars »

justinzollars wrote: post #259
jcranmer wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming the explosions are relevant, some possible causes, ordered somewhat (but not entirely) by my personal estimation of likelihood: * Ecoterrorists -- I discount this mostly on the basis that they would have claimed responsibility by now. * NATO sabotage -- this reduces strategic options for several EU countries (albeit a strategic option that isn't really being exercised and is almost universally disfavored). *…

What about US sabotage? What if peace was about to break out, and this is the United States way of eliminating the option of restoring energy to Europe this winter?

Biden on destroying Nord Stream (prewar) https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/1574685985115607040

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#336

Post by dividedbyzero »

throwaway4good wrote: post #320
origin_path wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that NS2 has also been destroyed, and that's even more recent than NS1. It was definitely sabotage, it can't be anything else given the timing, and it has to be state sponsored given that the pipelines are under the ocean. Berlin apparently thinks it would require submarines or special forces. US / Ukraine are unfortunately the only states for which this makes sense (perhaps US with back-room permission from som…

(Assuming it would not be beneath the US or proxies to do such a thing.) It would not make sense right now. Germany was nowhere reopening Nordstream 2 and if it came to that the US would have other effective means of blocking its use before reaching to outright sabotage.

That makes right now a great time to do this. Germany is currently very much resolved to keep NS2 closed and no one expects Russia to budge on NS1, so it's not like a viable option is taken off the table, deserting Ukraine over gas is (still?) beyond the pale as far as the mainstream is considered. But the German electorate may change their minds in the coming weeks and months, and Russia might start dangling NS1 carrots too, so blowing them up now is a great way to kill the domestic German political issue while it's still small and not devolved into paralysing trench warfare. I wouldn't be too surprised if the German government had secretly given their go-ahead to whoever is behind this.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#338

Post by MonkeyMalarky »

To me, the most fascinating thing about this is the complete and utter uncertainty. Who is responsible, USA? Russia? Ukraine? Poland? Terrorists? No one?

You'd think that in the 21st century, a piece of infrastructure getting blown up during a war, between two clearly defined sides, there wouldn't be nearly as much mystery surrounding the events.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#339

Post by everybodyknows »

It's in large part a warning -- there's no other explanation for the timing:

> The turmoil came on the same day of the inauguration of a long-awaited pipeline that will bring Norwegian gas to Poland, which used to rely heavily on Russia for supplies.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-gas-baltic-pipelines-leaks/32...

A single torpedo could sever the Pole's new energy supply.

Re: Gas Leak in the Baltic Sea

#340

Post by squarefoot »

I recall of an old story, say from 3-5 years ago, of some non military (geomagnetism?) sensors in that area that seemed to be damaged on purpose by an unknown actor, and one of the speculations was that they could be used to detect alterations to the (edit: measured) Earth magnetic field by submarines passing by.
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