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Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#781
post #686

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The immediate source - palm civets at a local market was found almost as soon as they looked, about four months after the outbreak. Tracing back where they got it from took longer.

After the discovery of WIV1 in bats it was found that it efficiently infected human airway epithelial cells, and since the palm civets were never linked to any outbreaks it is possible that the virus had directly hopped to humans from bats and that the palm civets were unnecessary as an intermediate species. It was also later found that it infects racoon dogs, ferret badgers and domestic cats. There was never any con…

I believe that:

1. The closest known animal viruses to human SARS-1 were found in civet cats in 2003, within about a year of the first discovery of the virus in humans.

2. No animal viruses closer to SARS-1 have since been discovered. Dr. Shi discovered various viruses in bats that we believe are ancestral to SARS-1, including WIV-1 in 2013. This is significant because we believe SARS-1 evolved primarily in bats, but those viruses have lower genetic identity with SARS-1 than does the virus found in the civets.

If you disagree, please link a paper.

Based on the above, I don't understand why you'd think 2013 is the important date. Within about a year of the emergence of both of the previous two novel coronaviruses in humans (SARS-1 and MERS), a near-identical virus was discovered in animals (civets and camels). This is suggestive but not conclusive evidence that those animals first infected humans, and strong evidence that those viruses existed in nature--somewhere, even if not exclusively in those animals--before they emerged in humans.

For SARS-CoV-2, no such evidence has yet been found. This doesn't prove that SARS-CoV-2 is of unnatural origin, and I assume you'll mention the uncertainty in Ebola's zoonotic hosts shortly; but I don't see how anyone could treat that as irrelevant, except out of willful blindness.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#782
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> warned it could damage “international harmony”. I've never understood the argument that people would want to suppress the (accidental) lab-leak hypothesis out of a desire to protect the image of China. If the lab-leak hypothesis is incorrect, that doesn't change the fact that the virus originated in that country, it just means that the virus emerged from a wet market. I'm not Chinese, but I'd imagine that a country…

In all likelihood, the local government conveniently blamed the wet market while the propaganda machine at the national level started blaming Americans visiting Wuhan for a military comp. I seriously doubt bats from faraway caves were being sold in a wet market in Wuhan. I personally haven't seen anything as disgusting as a bat being sold in a wet market, but I suppose the possibility is nonzero.

As I understand, bats are believed to be the reservoir for SARS-CoV, but the virus was spread to humans via an intermediate host. It would be the same with SARS-CoV-2, with an intermediate host acting as an amplifier.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#783

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Said hypothetical should include the disease originating around the lab, numerous conspicuous coverups and missing people, and a lack of transparent investigation. Should such a scenario happen, I think your argument becomes a bit of a strawman (i.e. that a segment of every nation's population would always cry foul in said scenario). I would expect more than just Russia would want access, and likewise that plenty of…

Why is it a strawman? If malfeasance is occurring, they will not want Russia looking at their lab, if malfeasance is not occurring, they still do not want Russia looking at their lab. I'm just pointing out the obvious, ((!A -> B) and (A -> B)) -> B.

It’s also worth noting that you’re talking about the US allowing the country with whom they have the most adversarial relationship investigate their labs. In reality, we’re taking about international bodies doing the investigation. The fact that China has isolated themselves so badly that the best analogy for “anyone investigates China” is “Russia investigates the US” says plenty.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#785

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Beyond that, the original SARS escaped at least once from a BSL-4 lab in Taiwan: > The scientist had been working on a SARS study in Taiwan's only biosafety level 4 lab since June, the Taiwan statement said. [...] A chest x-ray showed pneumonia in his right lung, and polymerase chain reaction tests of throat and blood samples were positive for the SARS virus. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/12/taiwan…

> tripletao 2 minutes ago | parent | context | flag | on: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, b... Beyond that, the original SARS escaped at least once from a BSL-4 lab in Taiwan: > The scientist had been working on a SARS study in Taiwan's only biosafety level 4 lab since June, the Taiwan statement said. [...] A chest x-ray showed pneumonia in his right lung, and polymerase chain reaction tests of throa…

A BSL-4 lab operated by researchers who never made mistakes would probably be quite safe. Unfortunately, they're instead operated by flawed humans. If you look at the safety culture of nuclear engineering, aviation, or other fundamentally dangerous activities that we nonetheless manage to practice safely, then you'll see practitioners who recognize that. They don't dismiss accidents or near-accidents as human error, even if a human failed to follow a procedure, and instead look for better ways to build systems tolerant of the human errors that inevitably occur. The attitude I've seen from many virologists--or at least, from the virologists with the perhaps-questionable judgment required to become the public face of these arguments--is disturbingly different.

And yeah, the WIV was working with novel bat-origin coronaviruses at BSL-2, not 4. That makes the risk of an accident yet higher, which makes our reddit virologist's argument that "BSL-4 labs like the WIV are really safe" not just bad but also dishonest. So I'm not sure what you think is addressed?

ETA: And I see that the reddit post talks about the WIV doing work at BSL-3 before they opened their BSL-4 lab. This claim is unreferenced, and as far as I can tell it's false; Dr. Shi confirms that they were working at BSL-2:

> In an email, Zhengli Shi said she followed Chinese rules that are similar to those in the US. Safety requirements are based on what virus you are studying. Since bat viruses like WIV1 haven’t been confirmed to cause disease in human beings, her biosafety committee recommended BSL-2 for engineering them and testing them and BSL-3 for any animal experiments.

The reddit post could easily be read to imply that after the BSL-4 lab opened, all work moved to the higher BSL; but it never actually says that, and I'm not aware of any evidence (or even any claim from the WIV) that it did. There's a strong incentive to work at lower BSL even when a higher-level facility is available, since the extra precautions significantly slow work. I therefore believe it's likely that work was continuing at BSL-2 in 2019.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#786
post #763

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I looked up Major Murphy using Marine Online's Locator: he shows up, with his place of work as the Office of Naval Research. My initial skim of the docs didn't raise any immediate red flags to me (things like poor adherence to Naval Correspondence standards for documents). Seems legit. Just my $0.02...

Have you read the actual documents? Most of it is Murphy’s unsubstantiated opinion. All the quotes in the video are from Murphy’s opinion and not from the leaked funding request documents. Nowhere in the documents is any proof that DARPA rejected the research due to gain of function concerns. All we know from the documents is that HealthAlliance requested funding to research and vaccinated bats. That’s it. Everything…

>>>Have you read the actual documents? Most of it is Murphy’s unsubstantiated opinion.

His letter to the Inspector General lists reference documents. Even a cursory search via DDG yields some of them, which were covered on HN when they were released back in September ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28965770 ).

https://newsrescue.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/defuse-pro...

https://drasticresearch.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/defuse-p...

https://drasticresearch.org/2021/09/21/the-defuse-project-do...

>>>Nowhere in the documents is any proof that DARPA rejected the research due to gain of function concerns.

Here's the rejection: https://drasticresearch.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/hr00118s...

"The team discusses risk mitigation strategies to address potential risks of the research to public health and animal safety but does not mention or assess potential risks of Gain of Function (GoF) research and DURC. Given the team's approach does potentially involve GoF/DURC research (they aim to synthesize spike glycoproteins that may bind to human cell receptors and insert them into SARSsr-CoV backbones to assess capacity to cause SARS-like disease), if selected for funding an appropriate DURC risk mitigation plan should be incorporated into contracting language that includes a responsible communications plan."

Major Murphy's letter also states: "When synthesized with the EcoHealth Alliance proposal, US collections confirm EcoHealth Alliance was performing the work proposed. The analysts produce their reports in a vacuum, absent the context the proposal provides. As a fellow at DARPA, I could see both, and can do the synthesis."

Do you have access to the intelligence agency collections plans, and/or their analyst outputs? What information do you have that contradicts his statement that his conclusions are corroborated by Top Secret intel analysis?

>>>Everything else is fan fiction by a soldier.

Are you ready to retract that accusation?

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#787

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Somewhat telling that you need a "throwaway" to point that out...

But seriously. It is easy to be labelled "CCP-shill" or "useful idiot" if you question the lab leak theory. And what is even crazier is that the lab leak-proponents are convinced that they are being censored. Even though they are completely dominating here (and elsewhere) in the hn comments, commenting on a pro-lab leak theory article from a major UK newspaper.

Facebook, Twitter and Instagram deleted millions of posts for simply discussing the mere possibility of a lab leak.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/may/27/facebook-...

That's not conspiracy, that's fact; and it's weird no one called you out on it.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#788

An interesting tidbit. The image of Wuhan on the map in the article shows WIV down the road across the river from the wet market. Something that gets zero screen time is the Chinese CDC is literary across the road from the wet market. They have since moved / unlisted that address. This does not mean a lab leak, but its a weird thing to be left out of the conversion.

> the Chinese CDC is literary across the road from the wet market

I would looove a source on that, please. Can't find anything with a quick search and haven't heard that before.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#789
post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "Government" is not one monolithic being. They are composed of various people/orgs with varying capabilities. Some are incompetent and some are competent at the work they do.

thats exactly why its so ridiculously hard to keep a secret. its made up of thousands of people, all with their own personalities, objectives, desires, beliefs and competencies.

Manhattan Project. Tonkin. For a long time, everything Snowden proved.

It's doable, and has been done.

And is being done.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#790

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is not a religion, there is no "believe". Religions are not the only things people believe in. Some people believe in lab leak exactly the same way some believe in flat earth. With fierce conviction despite complete lack of evidence with just surface level clues. > Lab leak (or artificial synthesis) is just a theory that explains origin of virus very well. It's a hypothesis. Most likely unfalsifiable because I…

It is really hard to tell if you are trolling. Anyway, it is all flat earth nut whack conspiracy, have a good day.

What exactly sounds trollish to you?

I believe that in my previous comment I haven't said a single controversial thing.

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