Live data from Hacker News

Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

telegraph.co.uk

681–690 of 833 posts

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#681

If this comment thread is the way the self proclaimed smartest forum on the web deals with articles like this then we're doomed. This article contributes zero actual evidence, is littered with out of context quotes (including of all places the title), doesn't appear to understand the science or the probabilities involved and finally is clearly written with an agenda. It shouldn't have been posted to HN in the first p…

It's naive to think that HN is necessarily better than an arbitrary Subreddit in terms of quality of conversations and depth of discussions, especially on non-tech related material. I don't know why one might think it's better/worse than a Twitter thread or Facebook post when it comes to controversial topics. You can find smart and dumb people here. Also, going against the narrative of the comment section may have ne…

> It's naive to think that HN is necessarily better than an arbitrary Subreddit in terms of quality of conversations and depth of discussions, especially on non-tech related material.

HN is much better than an arbitrary subreddit in terms of quality of conversations. Dissenting opinions are very rarely censored on HN, but dissent on subreddits is typically quelled. Subreddits are mostly echo chambers for people who want to loudly agree with each other while arguing against strawmen.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#683

I have read this ( https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-... ) about the origins of Covid and one phrase that called my attention was: "Dr. Richard Ebright, board of governors professor of chemistry and chemical biology at Rutgers University, said that from the very first reports of a novel bat-related coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, it took him “a nanosecond or a picosecond” to consider a link t…

I don't know who is right. A lab that does bat related research and is located where bats have traditionally shown these viruses, it's hard to determine cause and effect. "When I first heard about the Arctic, I thought about that Arctic ice research institute in a nano second. There are only two places. There are not a dozen places, it's two places."

>A lab that does bat related research and is located where bats have traditionally shown these viruses

But it isn't - the bats carrying coronaviruses live 600+ miles away. Wuhan was actually used as a control in a paper on bat coronaviruses as a population that wasn't exposed to them.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#684
post #645

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't just a random scapegoat. It just happens that the company (Ecohealth Alliance) proposed the gain-of-function research on the virus to DARPA, which was subsequently rejected as being too risky. NIH later funded similar research to the same company for its work in Wuhan during 2020. I'm far from a conspiracy theorist. But, what are the chances of this being coincidental? The "from the wild" theory doesn't ha…

Jesus Christ, son of Mary, please don't bring Occam's razor in yet another internet discussion that tramples all over it. There is no reason to assume a lab leak when every disease we know that affects humans is _not_ the result of a lab leak. A natural origin is the most likely explanation and we don't need any other explanation unless there is strong evidence that something different happened, which we absolutely d…

"People whose whole job it is to study bat-based coronaviruses managed to cause a variant which escaped."

"A virus whose whole job it is to mutate and infect mutated and infected people."

I think most reasonably sensible people would consider these to be fairly equal in terms of unlikeliness or simplicity. So yes, Occam's razor does not apply, but not because of your particular bias against one of the options.

> that is not supported by any observation

It's supported by at least 3 observations, which is that a leading virology lab known to manipulate bat-based coronaviruses was less than 30mins drive from the potential wet market source, and that China has a history of covering up controversial facts, and that China did at least their usual amount of hindrance for investigators.

I have absolutely no preference for one theory over the other. Or neither. I have no special evidence, and speculation at this point seems pretty pointless.

And unless you do, telling people they're stupid because of their preference is only going to cement their belief in a coverup. So maybe we should quit screaming at people and just say "you do you".

(Just to clarify: Feel free to work against sinophobia... that's perfectly valid. But again, dismissing critical thought on a topic out of hand does nothing but hand the Sinophobes an own-goal)

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#685
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, clear animal reservoirs, viral lineage, old samples from human or animal infections with precursor variants. No position on the question, just answering your question about proof.

That would only disprove the genetic manipulation part, but not necessarily lab leak. A WIV lab staff can easily contract virus from a bat inside the lab. This essentially what happened in Taiwan, where a lab staff got infected with COVID from a mouse [1]. To disprove lab leak you also have to show either 1. WIV or any other labs in Wuhan didn't have any virus samples that can be an ancestor of SARS-CoV2 2. we can es…

With SARS original they found the source as infected animals at a local food market. Something like that would pretty much disprove a lab leak as the source as it did that time.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#686

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes - an animal host or reservoir is found. It's unusual after 2 years none has been found.

The progenitor of the SARS-1 outbreak in 2003 wasn't found until a decade later in 2013. There's a lot of research which is getting closer: https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-871965/v1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21240-1 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2020.5847... https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.428212v1 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S18…

The immediate source - palm civets at a local market was found almost as soon as they looked, about four months after the outbreak. Tracing back where they got it from took longer.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#687

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes - an animal host or reservoir is found. It's unusual after 2 years none has been found.

We still aren't 100% sure about Ebola's reservoir, so that isn't necessarily a smoking gun.

Ebola didn't break out in a modern city of 10m + people.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#688
post #679

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I love when ppl are so sucked into a particular narrative that they ignore the question being asked: Where were the stockpiles of appropriate equipment? Or did the playbook say such things would fall out of the sky, like manna from heaven? Fact: The 45th didn't discard them. In fact, the gov bought masks from Facebook and (I think) Google who did have a stockpile (but evidently not for pandemic purposes). You're…

…sigh Feel free to use the search engine of your choice to search “US PPE Stockpile” & read any of the multiple credible articles that come up as the first results of the search. As it was known nearly immediately after COVID started, the stockpiles were mostly depleted - and what wasn’t depleted was mostly expired. This is why you saw pictures and videos of nurses demonstrating their supplied smocks disintegrating i…

So we had a stockpile that wasn't a stockpile, that wasn't effective? That ran out in no time at all? That's some great spin. Thanks.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#689

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then the title of the article is highly misleading. Using "Scientists" instead of "Some scientists" implies that the great majority of the scientists believed in this hypothesis, and there is no evidence for that.

That's one of the tough parts about headline interpretations because you're right. I think editors use it as a sort of con knowing it can leave them with a way out. Here's an NPR headline using the same term that could be seen as just as misleading: "Scientists Debunk Lab Accident Theory Of Pandemic Emergence" April 22, 2020 4:08 PM ET https://www.npr.org/2020/04/22/841925672/scientists-debunk-l...

Agreed - both should say "Some scientists".

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#690

This continues the trend of most* "conspiracy theories" proving to be true 6-12 months after they are dismissed by the mainstream. Excepting completely ridiculous ones, but even those sound more and more plausible with every confirmation.

I don't think pizzagate is doing well. The thing is a Wuhan lab leak never really was a conspiracy theory. Theorizing a bat coronavirus may have come from the nearest known source of bat coronaviruses doesn't really require much conspiracy.
Post reply on HN