Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI? • Hacker News Board

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#751

Post by coffeeandhn » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:13 PM UTC

jkarni wrote: post #717

jillesvangurp wrote: post #535

Maybe to counter some of the apparently widely expected doom and gloom: - bubbles are notoriously unpredictable and generally don't happen when they are loudly and widely proclaimed to happen any minute now. - large scale infrastructure spending tends to be really good for economies. These three companies are creating lots of jobs that are mostly related to construction, energy infrastructure, hardware spending, etc.…

> bubbles are notoriously unpredictable and generally don't happen when they are loudly and widely proclaimed to happen any minute now. Is that true? It seemed to me that the most common opinion before the recent Chinese real estate crash was that it was a bubble; architect friends of mine who worked in China said the government had no doubt prices were unreasonably high; the thing they remained hopeful about is whet…

I also think its hard to know when it will pop. The Chinese real state bubble you are quoting is indeed a very good example. Everyone knew the prices were super high but no one really knew when it would blow. The state had a problem and they knew they had to stop it eventually. After/during the covid pandemic the state decided to start a slogan "houses are for living not for speculating" and they started to set redlines for leveraging and developing. If you know how financing works in china you know many of it flows through the state and related companies and financial structures. Then also when one of the biggest developers in the country blew up they left it to blow instead of buying it. They essentially popped it with policy.

So many would say the saw it coming but the truth is only people with inside info really knew when it would happen for sure.

Same happens today. Capital is being heavily allocated towards AI inference and infra because of the promised productivity. Nobody knows if its early or late and also nobody knows how will the state react to a possible bubble exploding. Some people would say maybe AI is too big to fall already and its better if we save it when it falls. Some people would say its better to let it blow up but again nobody knows what will truly happen until we get there.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#752

Post by daveshistory » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:16 PM UTC

bigfishrunning wrote: post #750

Arn_Thor wrote: post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 7. Index fund managers are not incentivized to exclude a SpaceX from their indexes. (?) Correction: index funds don't have a choice. They must follow the index, and so must buy the stock. side effect: they'll have to sell other stocks, pushing their prices and weighting in market cap weighted indexes down. > Passive investors are unable to rapidly respond to these types of changes because liquidating portfolios wil…

But surely the managers of those pension funds can see this happening, and will not likely take on the risk of shares that are that young, no? The index funds hands are tied, i agree, but passive retirement funds are largely managed by people who are motivated for them to succeed. If this were not the case, then pension funds could have been looted long ago...

Pension funds that are actively tweaking the mix of stocks they hold likely might decide to play it safe.

On the other hand, do you want to be the one who says, "As a rule we follow the index, but this time we decided to break our own rule, and as a result we lost X% of returns"?

Better wrong with everybody else than wrong on my own.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#753

Post by goolz » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC

gitfan86 wrote: post #704

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

This fundamentally misunderstand the point of an index. The fundamental reason S&P 500 exists is to let people buy the entire market ( the top 500 companies make up most of the entire market ). That is it. Period. They are not saying these 500 companies are going to be the most successful in 6 months or 10 years. At one point Enron was 0.6% of S&P500 because it was a large company, not because the directors at S&P500…

Why the special rules for SpaceX though? I still do not understand why the world’s richest man and one of the most valuable companies needs an exemption? Genuinely confused.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#754

Post by jillesvangurp » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC

randusername wrote: post #672

jillesvangurp wrote: post #535

Maybe to counter some of the apparently widely expected doom and gloom: - bubbles are notoriously unpredictable and generally don't happen when they are loudly and widely proclaimed to happen any minute now. - large scale infrastructure spending tends to be really good for economies. These three companies are creating lots of jobs that are mostly related to construction, energy infrastructure, hardware spending, etc.…

> large scale infrastructure spending tends to be really good for economies All infrastructure is not created equal. It requires a lot of mental gymnastics to argue that datacenters are public good with net positive externalities. Actually, you could argue that these are anti-infrastructure since they strain the electric grid for everyone and reportedly make the surrounding area unlivable with noise pollution.

Huge data centers and energy infrastructure projects mean lots of potential for local businesses to benefit, employment opportunities, etc. These companies are raising an unprecedented amount of funding and are looking for places to spend it.

With the right policy and legislation, this level of investment should be welcomed rather than opposed in most sensibly run places.

For example California and Germany have a lot in common when it comes to the locals blocking all forms of large scale infrastructure for mostly selfish reasons. Both places have broken energy infrastructure, high energy prices, high taxes, very bad roads, etc. Both have decades of backlog in terms of outdated infrastructure in need of major upgrading/fixing. Everybody is wringing their hands about fixing these issues because there is no money and tax pressure is already too high.

And here are some of the wealthiest companies in the world looking for places to spend their many billions. Surely, that's something that could be mutually beneficial. All states need to do is set some sensible terms and conditions for this. But instead you get people campaigning against this. I really don't get that negativity.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#755

Post by coredog64 » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC

hliyan wrote: post #471

pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

I've been told the following (obviously negative) narrative. Can someone verify/refute some of these? I've put (?) next to questionable claims. 1. Twitter is purchased with debt 2. Debt is transferred to xAI via acquisition of X/Twitter 3. Debt is further transferred to SpaceX via acquisition of xAI 4. SpaceX IPO offered at extreme valuation 5. Index fund inclusion rules waived for SpaceX IPO: profitability requireme…

> Index funds are largely held by passive investors such as pension funds.

Pension operators are not typically passive. It's a different story to say that maybe they should be given that their returns don't always match up with index funds.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#756

Post by throwaway2037 » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC

edhelas wrote: post #454

throwaway2037 wrote: post #431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Starlink a generational leap in Internet connectivity. The Starlink satellite constellation is over 10,000 satellites. It is hard to comprehend. Also, they will soon add mobile phone service. That will be yet another generational leap. I watched a (sadly) short YouTube video about the SpaceX factory in Seattle (area) that produces one Starlink satellite per day . That is incredibly fast. That alone sounds like a gene…

Yes, the help Ukraine... by not connecting Crimea by choice.

Why is this comment downvoted? It is factually correct. The reason why Ukraine has such an upper hand in the last 3-6 months with mid- to long-range drones is access to Starlink, even within Russian territory. Russia does not have the same, so it is harder to navigate their one way attack drones.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#757

Post by olalonde » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:21 PM UTC

curtisblaine wrote: post #477

threetonesun wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.

> - Significantly increased my productivity as a software engineer I don't understand this. It increased productivity of every developer in the western world, so it didn't really give you an advantage. Your output is more valuable, but your colleagues' output is more valuable too, and your competitors' output too, and so on. So you're doing more things at the same salary and it's not like your company or your employe…

Intrinsic motivation. I find developing software inherently enjoyable, and being able to build things faster with less friction simply makes me happy.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#758

Post by Rover222 » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:21 PM UTC

freetime2 wrote: post #282

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

I don't like this either, but from the article: > Although Nasdaq has already shortened the “seasoning” period before index inclusion to 15 trading days and FTSE Russell has slashed its waiting time to five days (and S&P Dow Jones is reportedly considering something similar), most share indices weight firms in proportion to the value only of shares they have released for public trading (the “free float”). For SpaceX,…

how dare you come in with rationality in the face of ELON BAD

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#759

Post by jerf » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:22 PM UTC

ashdksnndck wrote: post #484

hliyan wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been told the following (obviously negative) narrative. Can someone verify/refute some of these? I've put (?) next to questionable claims. 1. Twitter is purchased with debt 2. Debt is transferred to xAI via acquisition of X/Twitter 3. Debt is further transferred to SpaceX via acquisition of xAI 4. SpaceX IPO offered at extreme valuation 5. Index fund inclusion rules waived for SpaceX IPO: profitability requireme…

The twitter debt is a negligible portion of the money at stake here. It’s a footnote compared to the trillions of dollars in wealth that are moving around. We are only talking about it because the internet commentariat has special interest in twitter. Not worth wasting time thinking about it if you are deciding how to allocate your portfolio. Nevertheless it is part of a pattern of weird deals in Elon’s companies. He…

"He’ll do anything to move the goalposts and turn his failures into successes. There is no norm he won’t violate, no boundary he won’t cross."

Unfortunately, if you really start digging in to what is going on in the financial world, you will find he has violated no norms here. This is not a defense of Elon; this is a condemnation of the entire financial industry.

The whole thing scares me, honestly. It has never been a clean happy market where lots of honest people get together and are just honestly trying to make a better world for each other, there is no golden past where people were just nice or anything, but damn if computers don't let people build some structures that the robber barons of old could only have dreamt of. I'm really concerned that "index and chill" doesn't just have a "best by" date but that the best-by date could be in the past; I've heard of an awful lot of ways of exploiting it and other retirements schemes we have, this is just one. I find it implausible that these ideas exist but nobody is doing them.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#760

Post by Rover222 » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 2:23 PM UTC

ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

Why don't you start a company that fixes problems you care about, then?