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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#751

Post by ReptileMan »

the_af wrote: post #518
ReptileMan wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once again - it is impossible for a very select few. There are a lot of generals that could stage a coup. Or colonels. They just summary execute those above them and say new rules bitches.

TFA argues that the Iranian regime works "bottom up", and there's no "select few" group of leaders that can be removed or changed that would topple the regime or make it change course. TFA argues that the US fundamentally misread the situation (it also argues that Israel didn't misread it but also doesn't care what happens in Iran, they just want to destabilize it for short-term gains, mainly benefiting Netanyahu; bu…

Once again there is no regime in which military coup by those in the middle is impossible.

And my solution still remains viable - returning their tech tree to pre WWI levels will defang them no matter their power structure.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#752

Post by lmm »

cbsmith wrote: post #709
miek wrote: post #687

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. ~90% of Iran's crude went to China. The oil revenue was ~75% of Iran's budget. Iran has been a significant area of military development for China, serving somewhat as a forward base.

That doesn't exactly limit the impact of cutting off the supply. It's a global trade market. If China buys on the global market from other places instead of Iran because that oil isn't available, that still creates a shortage for everyone and that still pushes up the price of oil for everyone.

Sure. But the US has substantial domestic production. So China (and everyone else who has to import the majority of their oil) gets hurt more.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#753

Post by genxy »

YZF wrote: post #664
Animats wrote: post #585

The war should be over by March 31st. Netanyahu has a deadline. He is facing a snap election. If the Knesset doesn't pass a budget by March 31st, Israel votes 90 days later, and Netanyahu is not expected to win. Worse for Netanyahu, he's on trial for corruption charges, and once he's out of office, he's probably headed for jail. The war was intended to give Netanyahu's popularity a boost, but that did not work out. […

The elections would happen by default in October: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_elect... The budget will likely be approved in parliament. Netanyahu has a solid majority and his partners are not interested in triggering elections. I'd be very surprised if that wasn't the case. Netanyahu survived many worse political crisis. I'll be happy to see him gone but he always pulls out some magic tric…

Jesus, I had no idea that the Arab vote in Israel was so cruicial and that voter turn out is so low. Mid fifties for the 2022 election?

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#754

Post by [deleted] »

coolThingsFirst wrote: post #590
amarant wrote: post #278

A core trait of my personality can be summed up as "always look on the bright side of life". To that end: This war seems more than likely to drive up oil prices not only in the near term, but in the medium and long terms too! In addition, petroleum usage seems likely to become dependant on sucking Iran's proverbial dick, a notion that very few people in The West will find palatable. Optimistically then, perhaps this…

Why didnt Iran use this earlier to get rich?

[deleted]

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#755

Post by ReptileMan »

Starman_Jones wrote: post #614
ReptileMan wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And there are cases like Vietnam that are USA best buddies now. And a lot of people that grew on a morning brew of agent orange and napalm are in their leadership now.

Would you say that the Vietnam War was a success for the US?

Indochina and SEA remained communist free ... according to the domino theory the whole point of USA involvement there was to contain the spread.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#756

Post by XorNot »

DoctorOetker wrote: post #662
MSFT_Edging wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The IRGC and Basij effectively do not have a chain of command and are effectively moving and acting by momentum This was by design via the mosaic defense tactic. They know the US prides itself on decapitation strikes, "taking out the leader of x" was a monthly headline during our time in Iraq, Afghanistan, and during the events of ISIS/syrian civil war. It's how the special forces operated, taking out a "leader", c…

What would such predelegated instructions look like, how large is the state space in that flowchart? How effective is control theory with a tiny state space? This doesn't sound like a survival plan, but a self-splintering plan: some military units will capitulate or defect while others fight on, when pushed till the edge, or is there some kind of direct-democracy-within-the-IRGC? that doesn't sound plausible... Basic…

This isn't a complicated war. The US can't and won't do occupations, so the only thing you need to do is cause problems till they leave.

Iran doesn't have to conventionally defeat the US military and can't: so they're just not doing that, and instead going after valuable economic targets which are politically sensitive to Americans and impossible to defend since they're risk sensitive.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#757

Post by raincole »

somenameforme wrote: post #152
khhu2bnn wrote: post #26

The amazing part to me is just the perceived invincibility this small circle within the US administration has. You can find dozens of articles with a search limited to Feb 1~Feb 27, plenty of analysis warning of the risks that have now become reality, everything - the strait, no revolution, further radicalization, critically low US stockpiles, abandoning other US partners, gulf destabilization, etc. In the fantasy im…

It's not just this administration. Everything with the US military has been going clearly downhill since the Millennium Challenge 2002. [1] It was, appropriately enough, a wargame simulating an invasion of Iran. It was a major event involving preparation in years and thousands of individual operators. When it was carried out the invading force was defeated by unexpected resources and resourcefulness from the Iranian…

Except the US military DID learn from that war game. In the war game the US's fleet was utterly destroyed. In our real life, so far, the US navy has lost exactly zero ship against Iran.

It's very interesting that you can look at the situation and say the war game where Iran destroyed the US navy is "not entirely unlike what Iran has done during our invasion" though. I guess in the end different people perceive the reality differently.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#758

Post by genxy »

andrewflnr wrote: post #728
throwaway85825 wrote: post #724

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil is a fungible commodity.

It's not as fungible as you would hope. Funging refineries and transport capacity takes time.

Certain kinds of crude gets refined in certain refineries. The economic shockwaves are going to be felt in ways no one expects. We will see!

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#759

Post by istjohn »

dotancohen wrote: post #609
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US succeeded in reducing their oil dependency and the country is now a net exporter. That doesn't solve the environmental concerns, nor hermetically seal the country from trends in global oil markets, but the US's energy independence agenda has definitely been successful on its own terms. Unfortunately, it hasn't diminished the number of American foreign policy experts who think it's very important to fight lots…

It seems to me that the current war in the middle east has more to do with ensuring those who chant Death To America do not develop nuclear weapons and to set back their ballistic missile program.

If Trump truly cared about nukes, he wouldn't have torn up the treaty in his first term. This war's about catering to Israel and distracting from the Epstein files.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#760

Post by genxy »

credit_guy wrote: post #249
ahmadyan wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

well, you can view it Iranian are willing to insure the vessel for $2M fee - that it will not get hit by them during the crossing ;). Once they are in the Oman sea, they can use traditional insurance.

You can view it like that, but most people don't. At least the people involved manning those tankers don't. And why should them? It appears that the Iranian armed forces started acted quite autonomously, by design. They know that communications are not secure, so local commanders have a very high latitude in what actions they deem correct to take. If such a commander deems that asking and collecting $2 MM per vessel…

They are all in a whatsapp or telegram together.
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