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Miscellanea: The War in Iran

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Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#581

Post by halflife »

j_maffe wrote: post #451
klipt wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel withdrew fully from Lebanon in 2000, and this was certified by the UN, yet Hezbollah kept attacking them anyway. If Hezbollah offered Israel a choice between: peace with Hezbollah OR occupy land in Lebanon, I think Israel would rationally choose peace. But Hezbollah has never offered this. Their stated goal is complete destruction of Israel. So if the options are: Hezbollah shoots at you from right across the…

Did Israel peacefully withdraw from the Golan Heights? No? Unilateral annexation condemened by nearly everyone in the international community.

Is there peace with Syria? No? So no unilateral withdrawal.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#582

Post by JumpCrisscross »

VK-pro wrote: post #571
scoofy wrote: post #561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I install solar panels, a battery, and a next gen breaker box in CA, even with premium equipment and no subsidies, I'm looking at a max payback period of like 20 years, right? At that point yea, it's effectively free energy. Is it an investment? Sure, but it's an investment that trivially pays for itself.

I’m sleep deprived so maybe not the right words, but isn’t there an implicit IRR that a household would maintain and usually a 20 year payoff would be maybe not the first use of investment dollars? I feel maybe that’s more the problem here with renewables. It’s cheaper but not cheap enough to put the dollars there instead of somewhere else

> isn’t there an implicit IRR that a household would maintain and usually a 20 year payoff would be maybe not the first use of investment dollars?

Yes. Also, the risk for industry is going all in right before a new technology comes out. At that point, you either write off your original investment and deploy the new kit. Or you accept a structural energy-cost disadvantage.

I am massively pro renewables. But you have to ignore a lot to pretend it's without risk.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#583

Post by JumpCrisscross »

xg15 wrote: post #575
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's huge sums of money flowing through our political system and effectively buying our politicians I disagree strongly with this assertion. But for sake of argument, let's assume it's true: American politics is permanently captured to Israel's interests. That still doesn't explain this war. "I think most folks understand that this war was a misfire for the United States, but I suspect it may end up being a terribl…

Israel is currently busy annexing southern Lebanon, and I don't think it's at all decided how the "hearts and minds battle" in the US will eventually end. (Or how important the popular support even is) So right now, the state of the war is a win for Israel.

> how important the popular support even is

To see the effect of losing popularity, see how AIPAC's power in the Democratic party has begun to wane following their defeat in New Jersey.

A common mistake those deploying money in politics make is forgetting that the endgame is votes. The money helps buy votes. But if you're losing votes, you're losing votes.

> right now, the state of the war is a win for Israel

If hostilities end right now, yes. There is zero indication that endpoint is proximate.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#584

Post by booleandilemma »

csmpltn wrote: post #468

[flagged]

That's the internet for you. People read a wikipedia article or two and think they're an expert. I remember another article on here talking about beekeeping and suddenly everyone was a beekeeping expert. It's kind of amusing to watch, if nothing else.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#585

Post by Animats »

The war should be over by March 31st.

Netanyahu has a deadline. He is facing a snap election. If the Knesset doesn't pass a budget by March 31st, Israel votes 90 days later, and Netanyahu is not expected to win. Worse for Netanyahu, he's on trial for corruption charges, and once he's out of office, he's probably headed for jail.

The war was intended to give Netanyahu's popularity a boost, but that did not work out.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-seeks-av...

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#586

Post by Starman_Jones »

WarmWash wrote: post #417
watwut wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel does not want functional moderate goverment in Iran. It would bomb and kill anyone who tries that. Israels plan is to periodically bomb and keep Iran failed state. It is working on making itself larger cleansing whole areas around it and settling it.

Israel doesn't want delusional theocrats running Iran.

I mean, they kinda do.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#587

Post by poisonarena »

ahmadyan wrote: post #221
citrin_ru wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Straight of Hormuz is open to any country willing to pay $2M per voyage. Any country except the U.S. and Israel. The straight is not physically closed by Iran. It's closed by insurance companies which asking a very high war risk insurance premiums. Even if you pay $2M it unlikely will reduce the cost of insurance. That's why very few ships are choosing this option (and some of them are shadow fleet tankers whic…

well, you can view it Iranian are willing to insure the vessel for $2M fee - that it will not get hit by them during the crossing ;). Once they are in the Oman sea, they can use traditional insurance.

this is not how the maritime industry works in any way.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#588

Post by scoofy »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #582
VK-pro wrote: post #571

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m sleep deprived so maybe not the right words, but isn’t there an implicit IRR that a household would maintain and usually a 20 year payoff would be maybe not the first use of investment dollars? I feel maybe that’s more the problem here with renewables. It’s cheaper but not cheap enough to put the dollars there instead of somewhere else

> isn’t there an implicit IRR that a household would maintain and usually a 20 year payoff would be maybe not the first use of investment dollars? Yes. Also, the risk for industry is going all in right before a new technology comes out. At that point, you either write off your original investment and deploy the new kit. Or you accept a structural energy-cost disadvantage. I am massively pro renewables. But you have t…

The system already pays for itself. The only thing you lose if a new technology comes out is opportunity cost. You also likely don’t want to be an early adopter of the newest tech anyway if this is a concern for you.

This doesn’t really make sense to me as an objection, so maybe I misunderstood.

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#589

Post by zahlman »

scoofy wrote: post #471
goda90 wrote: post #463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In January, the youtuber Technology Connections did a whole rant about how ridiculous it is that we're not rushing as quickly as possible to get off of non-renewable energy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtQ9nt2ZeGM

It really is crazy that environmentalists were like, "hey look, free energy," and suddenly everyone started screaming "No, boo! We like the way things are!" I have a friend who has never used an induction range before that is dead set that he never wants one. I just don't get it.

...What does induction cooking have to do with renewable energy?

Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran

#590

Post by coolThingsFirst »

amarant wrote: post #278

A core trait of my personality can be summed up as "always look on the bright side of life". To that end: This war seems more than likely to drive up oil prices not only in the near term, but in the medium and long terms too! In addition, petroleum usage seems likely to become dependant on sucking Iran's proverbial dick, a notion that very few people in The West will find palatable. Optimistically then, perhaps this…

Why didnt Iran use this earlier to get rich?
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