Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Don't need a full-scale invasion. Just a land grab on the coasts. As the article points out, this just makes the soldiers on the coast the targets of the drones and missiles. And it is a very large coastline to secure. How many mercenaries can they feed into the grinder? They certainly can't keep it up like Russia. There was a semi-stable equilibrium and the US ruined it. Now Iran controls the straight and it will b…
> this just makes the soldiers on the coast the targets of the drones and missiles Correct. That also reveals the locations of launchers, artillery pieces, et cetera . A winnable game if you have cheap bodies. > it is a very large coastline to secure To secure the Strait? Absolutely. To converge firepower onto a few beachheads? Not necessarily. And a Gulf land grab wouldn't be comprehensive. Just the islands ( e.g. L…
Miscellanea: The War in Iran
601–610 of 1001 posts
Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran
#602Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Israel does not want functional moderate goverment in Iran Israel would probably be fine with a moderate government in Iran. A moderate Tehran doesn't encourage Hamas and Hezbollah to randomly lob rockets into Israel. Even if Israel disagreed, a moderate Iran balances Israel in the region. An Iran that has beef with literally every single one of its neighbors other than Turkmenistan cannot provide that balance.
> An Iran that has beef with literally every single one of its neighbors other than Turkmenistan cannot provide that balance. Well, is that better than Israel and its relationships with its neighbors?
Yes. Tel Aviv retains solid security relationships with Jordan and Egypt. And it trades with its region [1]. On a ranking of hegemonic pests, Iran is way ahead.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade_agreements_of_Israe...
Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran
#603Earlier quoted context omitted.
It really is crazy that environmentalists were like, "hey look, free energy," and suddenly everyone started screaming "No, boo! We like the way things are!" I have a friend who has never used an induction range before that is dead set that he never wants one. I just don't get it.
...What does induction cooking have to do with renewable energy?
Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran
#604Earlier quoted context omitted.
It really is crazy that environmentalists were like, "hey look, free energy," and suddenly everyone started screaming "No, boo! We like the way things are!" I have a friend who has never used an induction range before that is dead set that he never wants one. I just don't get it.
...What does induction cooking have to do with renewable energy?
Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran
#605Earlier quoted context omitted.
> this just makes the soldiers on the coast the targets of the drones and missiles Correct. That also reveals the locations of launchers, artillery pieces, et cetera . A winnable game if you have cheap bodies. > it is a very large coastline to secure To secure the Strait? Absolutely. To converge firepower onto a few beachheads? Not necessarily. And a Gulf land grab wouldn't be comprehensive. Just the islands ( e.g. L…
Without the US, Saudi Arabia et al would be significantly outnumbered in a war with Iran. It's very unlikely that they have the capacity to invade Iran, even without considering drones. Factoring in drones, they will simply run out of soldiers before Iran runs out of drones, and the Iranian army can conduct mop-up operations at their leisure.
True. Without the U.S., the most they can do is pot Iranian ships so they sue for limited peace.
> Factoring in drones, they will simply run out of soldiers before Iran runs out of drones
Both the KSA and UAE have access to mercenaries. They wouldn't be running out of fodder any time soon.
Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran
#606Earlier quoted context omitted.
> couldn't win this against much closer, smaller and weaker Yemen. They just don't have functional military KSA went it alone in Yemen. And from that–as well as various proxy wars in Africa–both it and the UAE have learned. > don't believe they will do this because they love oil money too much Loving oil money means wanting to export your oil. That said, I think the monarchies are more politically vulnerable. So it's…
> KSA went it alone in Yemen. there were many countries involved in coalition. UAE specifically sent troups to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Aden_(2018) But the issue is that KSA just didn't perform on the ground, well equipped troups were overrun by Houthies with AK consistently. Not clear if they changed anything. > Loving oil money means wanting to export your oil. right, if Iran will take reasonable cut…
Unlikely. Again, a reasonable cut today can turn into any ask tomorrow. It's worth tremendous costs to the Gulf to ensure the Strait returns to at least neutrality.
Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran
#607A core trait of my personality can be summed up as "always look on the bright side of life". To that end: This war seems more than likely to drive up oil prices not only in the near term, but in the medium and long terms too! In addition, petroleum usage seems likely to become dependant on sucking Iran's proverbial dick, a notion that very few people in The West will find palatable. Optimistically then, perhaps this…
There are still processes that we haven’t replaced petroleum for, like Haber-Bosch. China has already banned the export of fertilizer for this reason.
I don't understand why so many people are raising an objection here when this should be a clear win-win.
Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran
#608A core trait of my personality can be summed up as "always look on the bright side of life". To that end: This war seems more than likely to drive up oil prices not only in the near term, but in the medium and long terms too! In addition, petroleum usage seems likely to become dependant on sucking Iran's proverbial dick, a notion that very few people in The West will find palatable. Optimistically then, perhaps this…
As evidence supporting the "bright side" outcome of this conflict, two separate people I know here is Australia have fast-tracked a decision to replace their ICE vehicles with an EV. It only took a week's sticker shock at the fuel bowser to take them from "Eh, sometime next year" and "comparing a hybrid with ICE" to "Buying a BYD car ASAP". I'd be curious to know if there has been any significant effect of the market…
The what?
> "Buying a BYD car ASAP"
A what kind of car?
Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran
#609Earlier quoted context omitted.
American citizens have known since 1973 that their dependence on oil puts them at the mercy of every Middle East dictator. The governments have known this clearly since the 1940s - see the Barbarossa operation. The US had literal generations to reduce their oil dependency and yet chose to remain dependent. It has nothing to do with the current war.
The US succeeded in reducing their oil dependency and the country is now a net exporter. That doesn't solve the environmental concerns, nor hermetically seal the country from trends in global oil markets, but the US's energy independence agenda has definitely been successful on its own terms. Unfortunately, it hasn't diminished the number of American foreign policy experts who think it's very important to fight lots…
Re: Miscellanea: The War in Iran
#610JCPOA was due to expire beginning in October 2025, so it was not a permanent solution. Iranian nuclear proliferation was closely monitored by Israel and others as a top priority, and there's little doubt that this was the end game: no one could explain the vast enrichment activity in hardened, dug-in facilities otherwise (if you claim "Iran never had a military nuclear program!" while faced with the evidence of multiple scattered military-grade facilities, a missile program and nuclear material enriched to above-civilian grade then you're simply an idiot).
The Iranian combination of a huge missile and drone programs and effect on the Middle East through proxies (de-facto controlling Iraq through the Shia militias and Iran affiliated government, Syria through Assad, Lebanon through Hezbollah and Yemen through the Houthis) meant it had geopoltical control of the entire area.
Iran attacked oil infrastructure before; namely Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia back in 2019. So it's a weapon it was willing to wield even before this war.
Iran was a key player in the Chinese/Russian axis (Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, Russia, China) that was a global threat to Western interests.
There are persistent reports that Saudi Arabia wanted this war to happen, and I wouldn't be surprised if some of the Gulf states supported that as well, because nothing threatens them more than Iran.
Iran getting nuclear weapons would throw the entire region into a nuclear arms race, so it was much more than the survivability of Israel alone. Saudi Arabia would pursue one, then Egypt (because of the former), and no one knows where it would stop.
I don't think this war was good, but doing nothing was even worse. I trust Israel more than I trust the US to have sound strategy on how this war ends. Israel is entrenched enough in Iran to be capable.
My bet? it will most likely end with a Venezuela situation, where the IRGC remains in place but with different people with different priorities. Iran keeps losing more and more infrastructure by the day, in Iran and outside (like what's going on with Hezbollah).
Assuming Iran can go on like this for a long time with their population suffering (remember the economy was in ruins and there was a serious draught even before this war started) is not realistic. They are playing the Middle Eastern bazaar-style negotiation, but there's not much behind it.
As for Israel: it's enjoying a huge economic boom with defense industry having record backlog (Israel just overtook UK!), massive R&D activities with companies like Apple and Nvidia (see Jensen's latest memo on his unwavering support of Israel and plans to build a 12,000 employee campus in addition to whatever Nvidia has in Israel). Amazon, Google, the works. Very unlikely that trade relations between US and Israel would deteriorate - there's simply no sound reason to do so, unless someone like Mamdani wins the presidency runs a Trump-style amok just with opposite beneficiaries.
P.S. no tears will be shed in Israel for Qatar, either. Qatar is the primary sponsor of anti-Israeli (not to say anti-Jewish) propaganda right now.