Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

Post by scrollaway » Mon, Dec 26, 2022, 8:12 AM UTC

NoboruWataya wrote: post #567

btbuildem wrote: post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100% lawyers have noticed. For example: they've been trying to automate discovery for a while now. I'm sure the new LLMs are making waves in those circles. But also: lawyering is good money, and they're adept at navigating the law. So breaking into that space with some sort of "tech disruption" has a high chance of getting you (metaphorically) dismembered.

Yes, my firm is investing loads into AI and other tech solutions to common legal problems. I first worked with eDiscovery software eight years ago. More recent trends including using machine learning to (partially) automate legal due diligence. Liability is the issue, as you say. If the software you use fails to flag an obvious issue that you consequently fail to flag to your client, you are in trouble, and the softw…

Post by _kbh_ » Mon, Dec 26, 2022, 9:13 AM UTC

rsj_hn wrote: post #704

mellosouls wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure of your motivation either, but we all have our biases; those are powerful predictions, and it's a shame you've been hit with such a downvote attack.

I intentionally made predictions that could be verified after a year but would also be minority views on this site, since repeating where I agree with the majority does not add to the debate. Sure, they won't all happen, but say, a 50% chance of happening or better, and made a sufficient number of them that I expect a lot of interesting predictions will take place. With the Turkey/Syria meeting, Erdogan has already b…

Post by ta_u » Mon, Dec 26, 2022, 9:45 AM UTC

Arete314159 wrote: post #719

ta_u wrote: post #333

The US will see a slowdown in GDP growth, with a rate of 0.2%, while the Eurozone may experience a mild recession, with a rate of -0.1%. Inflation will remain high, particularly in Europe, though it will be lower than in 2022. 90% or more of the population of China will become infected with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants during the first quarter. Assuming infection fatality rate of around 0.1%, between 1 and 1.5 million…

While I don't know what IFR to use for China -- I'm not familiar enough with their vaccines nor their rate of vaccination -- remember that in general, there's one IFR for "sick people can go to the hospital" and another, much higher one for "sick people cannot go to the hospital because they are full." The hospitals will be full, so the IFR will be at the high end of whatever we fear.

Post by mhuffman » Mon, Dec 26, 2022, 9:59 AM UTC

The_Colonel wrote: post #657

mhuffman wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If Russia "loses" Crimea I think Crimea is gone to Russia for good. It is out of play. I am talking about the Northern regions of Ukraine. In fact, I think the whole invasion of the northern regions was to eventually play that into a DMZ. Which it might still end up becoming. >It sounds like a weird scenario where Russia threatens to use nukes and then leaves satisfied with no NATO membership. (worth reminding that…

> I think Crimea is gone to Russia for good. The problem is that Putin would probably require recognition of Crimea as Russian, which would essentially underwrite his conquest and create a precedent for further conquests/annexations of further regions with Russian majorities/minorities. > I am talking about the Northern regions of Ukraine. Russia pulled out of northern regions back in March and now occupies the east…

Post by pyb » Mon, Dec 26, 2022, 10:31 AM UTC

Havoc wrote: post #662

- Tesla struggles to compete against old school manufacturers that have a grip on quality and make advances on the EV tech side - At least one instance of serious grid instability in Europe. Comes close to complete cascading collapse, but few people in mainstream notice/understand how serious it was - Various real estate markets dive 40%. Canada, UK, Ireland, nordics - Something in US politics breaks in a serious fas…