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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#661
More institutions would be ideologically captured by "wokeness", joining the many public corporations, media, non-profits, academia, professional academic associations and etc who have already done so.

People on the right will continue to use "woke" as a boogeyman, and people on the left would leverage on that to deny its existence and write their genuine critics off as "right-wingers".

The woke will continue to push for the false equivalence between "social justice" and "critical social justice", and the left would have their charitableness exploited through the woke's linguistic bait and switch, and their use of minorities and the afflicted as props. This exploitation enables the ideology to propagate further, giving power to a new 1984-esque authoritarian group, making lunacy the new normal.

Liberal outsiders like me who are looking at this incredibly stupid (and corrosive) phenomenon are left completely astounded as to why such idiocy is allowed to persist. We're left wondering, for myself at least, a citizen in a highly westernized Asian country, as to when such lunacy would hit our shores (it's actually here in our academia already).

Life is going to be so much worse after, and my sensibilities would be thoroughly violated on a daily basis. South park is a funny watch, but we really don't need an iteration of it in live action.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#662
- Tesla struggles to compete against old school manufacturers that have a grip on quality and make advances on the EV tech side

- At least one instance of serious grid instability in Europe. Comes close to complete cascading collapse, but few people in mainstream notice/understand how serious it was

- Various real estate markets dive 40%. Canada, UK, Ireland, nordics

- Something in US politics breaks in a serious fashion (think capital riot) cause by the widening left/right split spiralling further out of control

- Russia gets a new leader

- China moves aggressively against Taiwan, but not a full frontal assault. Blockade of some sort. US backs down

- Major oil price drama from strait of hormuz or that general part of the world

- Robots/Drones that are 100% AI controlled and armed with lethal weapons are used for area denial patrol type in corridor fashion

- Revolution in sea unmanned navigation via AI, both underwater and above. Mostly cargo for above, military for under.

- Multiple major humanitarian crisis in Africa, mix environmental and socioeconomic/structural

- Knock-off ChatGPT style bots become a widely available but they are inferior to the openai one. aws/gcp/azure all have a go at it

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#664

- The flaws in AI become more evident even as models become more powerful. Basically AI algorithms learn patterns, not abstraction, limiting reasoning in fundamental ways. - Understanding why AI makes mistakes continues to be a black box. - AI, despite fears, will enliven culture through DALL-e etc . - We will be in a golden age of science and tech, not so much in fundamental discoveries but in successfully moving aw…

> Labor unrest will increase everywhere

Why do you think this will happen?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#665

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think SV will continue to pay top prices for world class talent to relocate there and work in office. Think AI PhDs, chip designers, systems programmers, graphics experts, and the like. But the days of 100k interns and 300k SWE 4's are over, and that portion of the workforce will devolve to the national average.

I pray you are wrong

I think he’s right in a sense but wrong in the numbers. The 100 intern will stay just that 100k will be 50k of 2010 dollars

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#666

My 2022 [0] were (Christmas 2022 comment in parenthesis): - Bitcoin will go down to $12,000 (almost nobody saw this coming - back then it was a bit below $50,000) - One EU country will default (not Italy), the EU will bail it out (not exactly) - China will enter a recession (got this one) - 2022 will be the year of the hottest and coldest temperatures on record (quite accurate) - and also highest CO2 produced on reco…

The bitcoin one I’d disagree with, it was quite easy to see the drop. It never hit 12k, but my target was always 17k, which it did hit. I publicly told many people who asked when it was around 50k to wait for 17k. Simple analysis made this quite clear - The last three crashes had an 85% drop in price, based on the trend, 17k was the target. I don’t see it going to 5k, to this point, the crash has followed historical…

There is no analytical justification for Bitcoin's price drops solely based on historical price movements. The biggest drops were directly associated with the unprecedented (by most) failure of crypto projects like Terra Luna and Celsius.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#667

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Globalization will always be too tempting to ignore when some countries have labor costs that are ten times lower than others. Large companies will continue to have enough political power to veto the laws that would be required to reverse globalization.

So I'd recommend checking out Peter Zeihan but he argues globalization isn't a natural economic result but rather globalization came about as the US agreed to allow other countries to participate in the first world market on the condition that they don't ally with the Soviets. Thus arguing globalization was only ever a security not economic policy and now that the security problem it is trying to solve is no longer t…

Zeihan is a quack who is blinded by nationalism. Capital will always chase cheap labor since shipping is cheap.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#668

- Tech jobs at FAANG no longer look attractive or stable. Google hits the final nail in the coffin (not necessarily involving the layoffs) - The age of smart assistants is over - Microsoft will make a huge mistake involving Windows -> governments and companies start making concrete transition to MacOS and Linux desktop (start in late 2023) - The all of above leads to a revolution of smaller companies, their boom, inn…

> Tech jobs at FAANG no longer look attractive or stable. Google hits the final nail in the coffin (not necessarily involving the layoffs)

This is already happening. FAANGs no longer pay the top dollars according to levels.fyi report: https://www.levels.fyi/2022

> and culture which more resemble 90s than 2020s

What was the culture like in 90s? Any articles/books I can read?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#669
Since bold outlandish predictions are entertaining, here comes.

* A major mathematical breakthrough renders Quantum Mechanics an elaborate approximation of a simpler and weirder model, much like the theory of epicycles, very precise at the time, was a weird reflection of the heliocentric theory. It promises to solve the paradoxes of gravity in black holes, and involves parallel universes. Scientists work frenetically on testing it experimentally.

* A previously unremarkable effort to understand the structures which emerge in trained AI models makes a major practical discovery that allows to compress the models 2-4 orders of magnitude after the training phase, with minimal loss of precision. Computationally cheap, offline text translation comes to every smartphone; same with basic image recognition, voice recognition, voice synthesis, instant OCR, on hardware comparable to Raspberry Pi.

* Unexpected long-term consequences of COVID start to show as changes in emotional and cognitive spheres of significant numbers of previously affected individuals. While the changes are not always obviously detrimental, they freak the public out. More than that: every vaccine is found to trigger changes of similar nature.

* Twitter builds a fact-checking engine, using AI, Wikipedia, and the data from the Library of Congress; the first version only supports a few languages. Every tweet with more than 100 likes is marked by a rough epistemic score. Major controversies around religious questions force the engine to withhold any judgement of religious matters, after some uproar. Selling access to detailed and complex API of the fact-checking engine becomes a serious source of income.

* Russia, crushed by a military defeat and economic woes, fractures. Its president is said to be dead, and also to be alive in several different locations; the videos of his addresses are dismissed as deepfakes, by external observers and by other alleged presidential addresses. Nobody knows where the nuclear suitcase is; various military officials who control actual nukes deny allegiance to whoever now controls the suitcase. A bunch of new faces who previously were in the shadow emerge as being in control. The parts, weakened by the war, don't have the resources to fight seriously with each other for control over the terrain, and all plead to major world forces for support and demand recognition. Yielding the nukes found on the territories becomes the major condition of providing such aid and recongnition.

* A little-known company, for years secretly financed and now bought by Apple, unveils contact lenses that offer basic but an ultra-high-resolution, efficient, and polished augmented reality display. The lenses are powered wirelessly, through glasses or headphones, which also track head rotation. The lenses look so inconspicuous they can hardly be noticed, even looking face to face. Headphones and glasses are instantly banned from various exams; universities offer their own standard glasses of prescription strength to those who require them.

* One of the strains of oil-eating bacteria, initially designed to help remove oil spills, evolves to be 100x more efficient. An infestation is found on a shore after a minor oil tanker incident; presence is then discovered in a number of major ports and oil refineries. If uncontrolled, an infestation can render large amounts of liquid hydrocarbons unsuitable for fuel use within days. Airports, sea ports, gas stations, and military bases scramble for various solutions and disinfection measures.

* A major effort to build a private base on Mars, financed by a number of Earth's top billionaires, is announced. The base is planned to be ready for first human settlers in 5 years, and for permanent, self-sustaining inhabitants, in 15 years. The foundation is tight-lipped about who is going to inhabit it. Interestingly, both John Carmack and John Romero refuse to comment on their involvement.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#670
post #49

1. More people will slowly come to the realization that electric cars are not as effective as originally thought. As a result, the government may shift their focus to hydrogen-powered vehicles as a new alternative. Ideally, making people think about all the other none starters the government has lead them, and their taxes merrily into. 2. Some people will become aware that their money is not as valuable as it once wa…

Hydrogen isn't going anywhere, the challenges are the same as battery with even worse distribution mechanisms.

This is true, I fear it won't stop the powers that be leading many down the hydrogen route though. Check out what the EU is chatting about it all right now.
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