Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

news.ycombinator.com

591–600 of 816 posts

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#591

According to ChatGPT (sorry!) Give me a summary of `Array.from(document.querySelectorAll('[indent="0"]')).map(a => a.parentNode.querySelector('.commtext').innerText).filter(a => a.length > 10 && a.length a.replace(/reply$/, '')).join('\n');` «These predictions discuss various expected events and developments in the year 2023. These include the rise of robotic beings and the end of human rule, changes in language and…

How are you getting past the prompt size limit?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#592

- Tech jobs at FAANG no longer look attractive or stable. Google hits the final nail in the coffin (not necessarily involving the layoffs) - The age of smart assistants is over - Microsoft will make a huge mistake involving Windows -> governments and companies start making concrete transition to MacOS and Linux desktop (start in late 2023) - The all of above leads to a revolution of smaller companies, their boom, inn…

> The age of smart assistants is over

I don't totally get this one, even with just Whisper and ChatGPT you could build one hell of a smart assistant compared to Alexa or Siri. Maybe it doesn't come out next year, but I bet this category comes back in a year or two.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#593
Twitter will go bankrupt but will limp along ala Tumbler. Musk will pretend this was his plan all along, and dip into the fortune 200s. A replacement for journalist microblogging will emerge, I am not ruling out activitypub.

Crypto (btc/eth) will continue its downtrend since the Matt Damon peak. Bitboy will end up under inditement.

US housing market averages will bleed out slowly and be getting to point of stabilization this time next year. APPL will stay around 140 most of the year.

US GOP will run Desantis or cruz. No idea what dems will do.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#594

My predictions for 2022: 1- The US economy and the USD will keep declining. 2- In various EU nations, certain religious people will cause unease and there will be numerous attacks. 2- The world's perspective on two-headed hybrid regimes will soften and begin to accept it. The chinese type system will continue to be adopted by nations in Asia and the Middle East. 3- After July, there will be another brief cryptocurren…

USD is the strongest its been in a decade though.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#596

1. A breakthrough in "deepfake voice" is made that can emote convincingly. It is used to add Marilyn Monroe or James Dean to a TV show or movie. A US supreme court challenge to the admissibility of audio recordings is begun, after a murder case is thrown out due to evidence being shown to be an audio deepfake. 2. A single climate catastrophe-linked weather event causes tens of thousands of deaths. Governments pledge…

I think that on #4 it is a bit bold to point to microplastics. However, I agree that human mental health is in decline due to environmental factors (as well as electronics use).

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#597

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

Globalization will always be too tempting to ignore when some countries have labor costs that are ten times lower than others. Large companies will continue to have enough political power to veto the laws that would be required to reverse globalization.

So I'd recommend checking out Peter Zeihan but he argues globalization isn't a natural economic result but rather globalization came about as the US agreed to allow other countries to participate in the first world market on the condition that they don't ally with the Soviets. Thus arguing globalization was only ever a security not economic policy and now that the security problem it is trying to solve is no longer there globalization is failing.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#598

- USB 4, Series D will be defined, with 3 possible orientations, one each for display, power and data transfer - Saudi Arabia will release an ethical standards requirement for each of its Western tech company holdings. The exact definition will be confusingly progressive, which will put everyone on guard. - Google will cancel the Search product, with a press release that expounds beautifully about the future. They cl…

  - Saudi Arabia will release an ethical standards requirement for each of its Western tech company holdings. The exact definition will be confusingly progressive, which will put everyone on guard.

Al Jazeera by Saudi Arabia

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#599

- More gentleman layoffs at Google - At least 2 rounds of hard layoffs at Amazon, plus gentleman layoffs. No more Bezos billion dollar Prime Video projects. Shedding at least 10-12% of white collar work force to signal to the market they’re trying to prop the stock - The economic hard landing - Disney stock will fare much better under Iger - Additional rate hikes from the Fed, at least 100bps but maybe 150 - Twitter…

> - More gentleman layoffs at Google more in addition to what?

Gentleman layoffs are when you increase bottom performer targets. You don’t formally lay then off with generous severance but manage them out.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#600

* At least one of the next phase of FAANG companies is founded by folks that were part of this layoff cycle. * GPT4 blows everyone's mind and is a full step above ChatGPT * A giant leap happens with self-driving cars, making them finally viable. * Meta continues to implode, Zuck is forced out or brings in someone else to act as CEO. * Elon gets bored of his new toy (Twitter) and moves on to other things * Car product…

I agree that layoffs will lead to new companies being formed. I'm not convinced that the self driving car thing will happen in the US. I think the US will be slow due to the high cost of american life and regulations. I think it will happen in Asia though.
Post reply on HN