Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

Food prices in North America will continue to climb as drought worsens agriculture in California and Mexico. California supplies most of the food in Western North America, including the Western half of Canada

Russo-Ukrainian War:

1. Ukraine winter offensive in Jan/Feb of 2023 will successfully drive the Russians back in the south and threaten Crimea (which will fall during the year).

2. But Russia will comeback, and bolster its defense in the east of Ukraine, causing a stalemate there, until the summer of 2023.

3. Russia’s comeback will seem ominous for Ukraine which will be running short of supplies, due to western equipment and ammo production capacity being stretched.

4. Although Russia is also stretched thin, it will still (by the summer) have a larger supply of ammo than Ukraine.

5. We will see the beginning of international calls, and western pressure, for a peace agreement. It will result in a brokered UN administered consensus vote in the Donbass (inhabitants there vote on which nation they want to belong to). (This might be a bit idealistic take, so take with a pinch of salt.)

6. Putin remains in power, in spite of predictions he would be overturned due to the losses in the war.

7. Putin is able to wind down the conflict while saving face by arguing it was only about the russian people in Donbass all along.

8. No nuke or tactical nuke will be used, even though Russia will continue to rattle them to scare the west.

App dev / JS frameworks:

(growth in terms of npm downloads and github stars)

9. React, React Native, SolidJS, Svelte, Vue, Astro and Qwik will all experience enormous growth during the year.

10. Redwood and Remix will struggle to grow as much, but still grow some.

11. Remix will grow more than Redwood. (Not a very spicy take, but still).

12. React and Next.js will still dominate all competitors in absolute terms, and continue to grow,

13. but React Native, Svelte and Qwik will grow much much more (percentage wise).

14. «The year of React Native» on native/crossplatform, and

15. «The year of Qwik» on web, certainly mind share wise, but also growth wise.

Styling:

15. Tamagui will be pretty hyped, mostly in React Native and mobile crossplatform circles, and grow greatly (more than 3x amount of npm downloads and github stars).

16. But will be dwarfed by the meteoric rise of Nativewind. «The year of Nativewind» on native/crossplatform. Which will be fuelled by the fact that

17. TailwindCSS is still dominating amongst modern web styling tools, and will >2x its amount of downloads, and grow around 18% in github stars by year end.

The problem is that Putin would probably require recognition of Crimea as Russian, which would essentially underwrite his conquest and create a precedent for further conquests/annexations of further regions with Russian majorities/minorities.

> I am talking about the Northern regions of Ukraine.

Russia pulled out of northern regions back in March and now occupies the east and south. TBH I'm not sure how seriously I should take your opinion in light of such a basic mistake.

> So, again, from that perspective, if he gets what he is publicly asking for, why would he not tout it as a win?

He might get what he's publicly asking for, but he's not getting what he actually wants. If he's willing to credibly threaten nuke use, I'd rather expect he will insist on having what he in fact wants (some sort of further slicing up of Ukraine).

This is not going to happen for at least a generation or two. European countries are not having children so one of two things can happen:

a) They finish the crisis phase of the civilization cycle and recover. Right now only "far right extremists" want this. The government of most of the nations and of the EU in particular is working hard against it

b) Both the people and the social institutions of the European nations are replaced by those of foreign nations in which case the economies will likely end up resembling those (of Africa and Asia.)

Either way it's absolutely not getting better on any kind of small time scale like a year. A couple decades is possible but extremely unlikely.