711–720 of 915 posts
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Darwin will solve this irresponsibly stupid behavior. Causing a lot of collateral damage unfortunately.
No, old people have likely already re-produced, and will not be prevented from reproducing if they die now.
Ignorance is not transmitted genetically.
Here the cases country by country: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
It's interesting to see that the growth is almost everywhere the same. In some countries it just started earlier.
It took just 1 week (or 5 days min) to have cases from less than 100 to roughly 1000. Same in Italy, same in S. Korea, same in Germany, etc.
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In Germany a friend of mine refused to go to a meeting at a client's office where someone tested positive and HR threatened him because he was violating his employment contract.
Am in Germany. Everyone is acting like nothing is happening. It's infuriating.
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That is an incredibly short sighted view. We need to be proactive not reactive. This virus is here and it's here in a big way. Positive cases are not the full picture. Median incubation period is 5 days. Italy is a warning and we're not taking it. We should all be in quarantine now so this doesn't get out of hand rather than wait for it to become uncontrollable and then trying to de-escalate it.
Ok, so you suggest every single person in Germany to be quarantined. Whether they have symptoms or not. Now that's what I call an over reaction.
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Now long would you maintain that quarantine? Is there some amount of time after which the virus will go away? Any call for drastic measures, even when drastic measures seem like common sense to some people , need to explain why the measures should be implemented and under what circumstances they should be lifted.
I concur with GP - but here in Australia we're run by fantasists, so it's not going to happen here either. > Now long would you maintain that quarantine? I'd suggest start with 2 weeks, and reassess after 10 days. I note that in TFA Italy's administration extended this (initially) out to the 3rd of April, which seems like a reasonable timeframe. Incarcerated people rioted ... and a churlish part of my brain suggests…
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Also, growth narrative is always about adding/subtracting percent points - which makes most people think this is a linear phenomenon, because they don't make the connection that the quantity discussed is a multiplier, and charts they see are on log scale.
As long as you stay with low percentages, the linear approximation works pretty well: two times 1% lead to a 2.01% increase. But it starts breaking down as soon as you reach 10%. Little trick to know (with some good approximation) the doubling time of some low-percentage growing system: count it linearly up to 10% and then multiply by 7 (which is roughly the doubling time for 10% growth). Example: 2% => 5*7=35 years…
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Politicians have no understanding of exponential growth. They look at low numbers and think "we have a lot of time" then are surprised later when they in fact don't.
The other thing is the incubation period is around 5 days. So really the numbers are at least 5 days behind.
This is an account from one of the doctors in Italy. https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/123714289107769753... Read the whole thing, but this passage in particular is just chilling. "5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are start…
I am struggling to reconcile this story with the numbers of deaths so far vs the number of deaths in any given year. A french infectious disease specialist mentioned that 2017 had been a bad year for infectious respiratory diseases in France, with over 60,000 additional deaths in winter, to the point that it affected life expectancy tables [1]. I don’t remember any mention of hospitals being overwhelmed and doing war…
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Well, in Bavaria at least, people are forced to self-quarantine for two weeks if they had contact to people from o where in high risk areas. Same goes for children in schools and kindergardens. Some schools are closed already. Corporate travel came more or less to a halt and soccer games are most likely taking place without spectators. So yes, just business as usual.
I'm in Berlin and people are making zero effort to alter their usual patterns.
I'm close to Hamburg. We've had two or three confirmed cases in the county. Patients are quarantined at home and stable. Schools have been temporarily closed, but reopened now. The administration is taking it very serious and people are stocking up on everything, including cake.
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Oh no! The toilet paper craze. That is absolutely the biggest threat we are facing right now. Not the complacency on display everywhere.
I would say that the biggest threat is a dichotomy fallacy. Just because an extreme is wrong it does not mean that the other is right. This should be taken seriously and people should put effort into prevention, but honestly I would prefer calling upon people's sense of civic duty rather than panic.