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Lumber prices down 11% YoY

calculatedriskblog.com

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Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#71

Supposedly, wholesale chicken wings are lower than pre-pandemic prices. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/chicken-wing-price... I've yet to find a restaurant, however, where menu prices for wings aren't at least 20% higher than 2019 or so -- often much higher. Similarly, I have a hard time believing that lower lumber prices will reduce new construction costs.

The cost of labor to cook those chicken wings has gone up. (about 20% or so since 2020)

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crazy to think people were doing construction and remodeling at 3x typical lumber costs

It was only 3x the cost because people had 3x the excess money.

Nonsense. The lumber pipelines were interrupted. It was simple supply and demand unlike all this insane price gouging the grocery stores are pulling off now.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was only 3x the cost because people had 3x the excess money.

Nonsense. The lumber pipelines were interrupted. It was simple supply and demand unlike all this insane price gouging the grocery stores are pulling off now.

Right - demand was up because people had more money.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Retail prices are generally pretty sticky - if the wholesale price persists, they'll come down, but it'll take time.

I hope they come down -- I have reduced my restaurant spend considerably since restaurant (even chain) prices went up by 30-50% in my area compared to pre-Covid. Maybe I'm too price-conscious, but I'd expect demand to go down over time as the rising interest rates affect daily life.

It's not gonna happen. Labor costs determine the price of restaurant meals way more than wholesale food costs do. Those have gone up and probably are not ever coming back down; wages are a one-way ratchet in all but the most extreme circumstances.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#75
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would that make the game less fun? or would the economy be the fun part of the game, automating and driving down prices? I think games like factorio, the fun comes from automating and being less of a mental burden.

I was thinking a bit like EVE online or Off World Trading Company but using real life stats.

Tying EVE online outcomes to real world markets is a guaranteed way to disrupt real world markets.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nonsense. The lumber pipelines were interrupted. It was simple supply and demand unlike all this insane price gouging the grocery stores are pulling off now.

Right - demand was up because people had more money.

Demand was up because people had more _time_

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#78
post #5

The chart in the article does a nice job at illustrating that prices are roughly speaking back to essentially pre-pandemic levels after giant spikes. This seems healthy to me.

Crazy to think people were doing construction and remodeling at 3x typical lumber costs

Labour is the biggest cost of house building.

And during a pandemic, that is almost free, since many people are stuck at home with nothing to do.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To elaborate a little more: Board thicknesses are measured in the "quarter system" - 4/4 (pronounced "4 quarter", that is 4 quarters of an inch) is a 1" thick rough-rough sawn board; 8/4 (8 quarter) is a 2" thick rough board. As this is rough sawn (super rough and unsightly finish), you usually lose at least 1/8" while finishing the board, so a 4/4 rough board gives you something around 3/4" finished product. This le…

Isn't the loss for dimensional lumber more due to drying than finishing?

No, and they rough cut fast closer to 6/4 (1.5") than the original 8/4 (2") they may have originally used, because we don't care about the quality as much. Part of that is the wood isn't as good. Part is our machinery is now more precise.

To get a 1" finished board you need to start with at least 5/4, because you may have some twist in the board and you can flatten alternating sides to make it flat. If you were just running it through a machine without paying attention, your might need to take that same board down to 0.75" to get it flat.

But they aren't wasting time like that for framing lumber. But when your lumber is expensive, it's worth a little focused labored to use more of the board

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#80
post #5

The chart in the article does a nice job at illustrating that prices are roughly speaking back to essentially pre-pandemic levels after giant spikes. This seems healthy to me.

Crazy to think people were doing construction and remodeling at 3x typical lumber costs

I wonder how much of that remodeling was to accommodate a newly required home office due to WFH. If you really needed to have a separate office (eg kids), you simply had to grit your teeth and bear the cost.
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