Lumber prices down 11% YoY

Not a lot of people are willing to work in the food service industry in general, nor at 2019 wages specifically, also rents, and real estate skyrocketed. Food costs are generally only about 1/3 of menu revenue, with wages and overhead being the other ~2/3. Profits are generally very thin in restaurants.

To elaborate a little more:

Board thicknesses are measured in the "quarter system" - 4/4 (pronounced "4 quarter", that is 4 quarters of an inch) is a 1" thick rough-rough sawn board; 8/4 (8 quarter) is a 2" thick rough board. As this is rough sawn (super rough and unsightly finish), you usually lose at least 1/8" while finishing the board, so a 4/4 rough board gives you something around 3/4" finished product.

This leads to 5/4 being another fairly common dimension, as you can get a 1" finished board out of it. 6/4 and 12/4 are somewhat common as well.

It might seem like an "ugly dimension" compared to something like m^3, but its really built around speed. Watching someone skilled price out an enormous stack of mismatched lumber (width, thickness, and length) in seconds with a lumber rule is always a fascinating process to watch (https://www.popularwoodworking.com/techniques/the-lumber-rul...).

Usually the $/board foot increases slightly at higher dimensions as thicker lumber is harder to produce. I got some 4/4 black walnut for $12.80/bdft last week; 8/4 was closer to $16.

Edit: This is also why 2x4s are actually 1.5"x3.5" - historically they were 2x4 rough sawn lumber, but .5" is lost in both dimension when producing finished boards you purchase in the store.

Labor prices for skilled labor have increased so much that even when you do the “how much is my time worth” calculation as an overpaid engineer, DIY has become the only way to go. It’s nuts, but a fun learning experience.

Treating "price" purely as a supply signal, and not as "value" or "worth it" I think it's true the price of lumber worldwide related to supply chain shock, and the consequences for just-in-time dependencies in the building sector.

I am a little surprised things like chip and plywood suffered, I guess when you cannot get timber, you go to manufactured wood (which in some circumstances actually has better mechanical strength, but most people think has lower aesthetics although opinions differ on this) and maybe even as a downstream (sometimes, waste+, certainly different cuts/grades of timber go in) informed component of construction it "costs more" in these times.

The whole Price/Value/Worth thing is really confusing. Timber is amazing. Burying it inside the carcase of a home feels at first glance like "why not something else" but the entire tooling of construction crews can be built around "its wood" not "erect this premade steel form" or "lower the entire wall with insulation, wires windows and pipes into place" as they do on 'grand designs'

The problem really is that price isn't just a pure supply signal. People treat the ratchet up and down as distinct arcs with their own dynamic. It goes up faster than it comes down unless you know something about the future to make it worth dumping at any price. With wood, there isn't much surprise in the future driving price down, only suprises driving price up.

"Building codes to forbid wooden housing due to giant space termites" wasn't on my roadmap for 2024 but you never know...

I was thinking a bit like EVE online or Off World Trading Company but using real life stats.