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Lumber prices down 11% YoY

calculatedriskblog.com

21–30 of 156 posts

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#21
post #5

The chart in the article does a nice job at illustrating that prices are roughly speaking back to essentially pre-pandemic levels after giant spikes. This seems healthy to me.

I love the tradingeconomics site for tracking commodities prices. Indeed, lumber is at pre-pandemic prices from 5 years ago https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

Cripes what is going on with orange juice.. there’s some seasonal patterns in the last 25 years, but the last year has just kept climbing.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#22

Supposedly, wholesale chicken wings are lower than pre-pandemic prices. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/chicken-wing-price... I've yet to find a restaurant, however, where menu prices for wings aren't at least 20% higher than 2019 or so -- often much higher. Similarly, I have a hard time believing that lower lumber prices will reduce new construction costs.

Yeah I agree, it will make prices stay flat for a few years, but I highly doubt there will be a massive decrease in construction cost unless we see another 2008 style economic crisis. Although, labor shortages in the construction industry might make still allow prices to stay high.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

metric system is so much easier: m³

I don’t think you can have a 1m^3 of wood. Life is not Minecraft.

Germany uses Euro per Festmeter as measure, a Festmeter is 1m^3. Trees are round of course but Festmeter is on the invoices and pricing tables.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

metric system is so much easier: m³

I don’t think you can have a 1m^3 of wood. Life is not Minecraft.

Unless you’re making infinitely thin two dimensional planes made of wood you always get a cubic volume of wood. Always. No exceptions. What do you think W x L x H stand for?

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#25
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love the tradingeconomics site for tracking commodities prices. Indeed, lumber is at pre-pandemic prices from 5 years ago https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

Cripes what is going on with orange juice.. there’s some seasonal patterns in the last 25 years, but the last year has just kept climbing.

Not sure. That was the lone outlier I saw too. Quick internet glance seems to implicate crop disease and Florida hurricanes dropping supplies.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#26

Supposedly, wholesale chicken wings are lower than pre-pandemic prices. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/chicken-wing-price... I've yet to find a restaurant, however, where menu prices for wings aren't at least 20% higher than 2019 or so -- often much higher. Similarly, I have a hard time believing that lower lumber prices will reduce new construction costs.

Retail prices are generally pretty sticky - if the wholesale price persists, they'll come down, but it'll take time.

I hope they come down -- I have reduced my restaurant spend considerably since restaurant (even chain) prices went up by 30-50% in my area compared to pre-Covid.

Maybe I'm too price-conscious, but I'd expect demand to go down over time as the rising interest rates affect daily life.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#27
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love the tradingeconomics site for tracking commodities prices. Indeed, lumber is at pre-pandemic prices from 5 years ago https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

Cripes what is going on with orange juice.. there’s some seasonal patterns in the last 25 years, but the last year has just kept climbing.

Here in Florida, citrus greening has devastated the groves.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#28
post #16

Things like plywood (for furniture) didn't come down in price yet to pre-pandemic levels; hoping they catch up soon. You used to be able to get 3/4 maple 4x8 for ~$50, now it's $85 at Home Depot and over $100 from the local lumberyard.

There was a weird blip of time during the pandemic where cabinet grade plywood was cheaper than CDX sheathing at my local Home Depot. If I was building a house then it would have been cool to sheath it in oak veneer plywood.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

metric system is so much easier: m³

I don’t think you can have a 1m^3 of wood. Life is not Minecraft.

A foot is a (variable) measure of length.

A board foot is a measure of volume - with an implicit third dimension.

So you could just use the SI unit for volume.

A board foot ~= 2.4 litres.

This seems a bit silly though, as timber is not fungible in the way you'd expect a volume of something to be.

As noted by sibling comments, you very much can buy timber in cubic metres - a convenience for costing / transport - but you're not going to buy timber without knowing dimensions of the individual lengths.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#30

For the unfamiliar, a "board foot" is a unit of lumber volume representing a square foot of board with 1 inch thickness. So an 8' long board 12" wide and 1" thick is 8 board feet. Or half as wide and twice as thick (6" x 2") in the same length is also 8 board feet. You get the idea.

When you say one inch wide, do you mean one of the twelve things in a foot, or one of the two things in the width of a 2x4?
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