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The death throes of an industry

jacquesmattheij.com

71–80 of 82 posts

Re: The death throes of an industry

#71
post #38

I think there's a larger picture here. It's time to declare war on middlemen, period. There are producers and customers. There is no place for anything else in the 21st century. Here's a startup formula for you all: 1) Identify a place where a middleman is taking a cut or gate-keeping an industry. 2) Design a system, technology, or service that either eliminates the middleman entirely or replaces it with something fa…

You're sort of describing Marxist economic theory there. More specifically 'Production for use'. Capitalism is built around the middleman.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#72
post #54

Wow. Simply, wow. I was literally 90% done with my Kill Hollywood RFS application when I saw Paul's tweet about this article and it stopped me dead in my tracks. Can anyone tell me that the Kill Hollywood is about making the world better and not simply about revenge? I just finished ranting like a lunatic on twitter (sorry Paul), but I'm going to try and be nice here. Keep in mind that you are attacking my very livel…

It's always nice to have someone with an insider perspective around here, so thanks for taking the time to post. I think one thing that gets lost in a lot of these discussions is that there is no law of nature that says movie production will always be insanely profitable. Every reader of this site has grown up in a world where Hollywood actors and actresses (as well as directors and producers) have made exceptionally good money doing what they do (obviously not a majority of them; I realize that). However, there has been a lot of money sloshing around that system for our entire lives which has led to where we are today, with various middlemen lined up to take a cut. The thing is, while people want to be entertained, they don't necessarily have to spend their money (or attention) on products like movies and TV. For me personally, I find it increasingly difficult to find enjoyment in products from Hollywood. Instead of watching a movie tonight I'm noodling around on Facebook and HN. Both of them are delivering entertainment to me much more cheaply (both from their perspective and mine) and efficiently than Hollywood. This is a real threat to Hollywood in my opinion. The video game industry is getting schooled on this now. A whole generation is growing up buying video games in the App Store for close to the price it used to cost for one turn at an arcade when I was a teenager. That is hugely disruptive to established players. But again, there is no law that says video games must cost $50. The established companies have to adapt or someone else is going to swoop in from underneath and eat their lunch.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#73
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capitalism is supposed to be a way of dealing with scarcity, not maintaining it in the face of its oncoming abolition by technology. You are a bourgeoisie screaming that the Revolution has come and you don't like its shape ;-). I agree with you, but moving to a post-scarcity bit-distribution model is, in its way, inevitable. After all, how much does the RIAA/MPAA claim as the "pirated" value of "their" content? As I…

Bourgeoisie? :) I worked my way up from nothing and my perspective is simply that of someone who has seen the industry from several different angles. Also, like any sane person, I believe that pirates are only frustrated consumers (I know I am). But where does that leave us... how do you keep humanity entertained while "software is eating the world." What does that technology look like? For distribution, is it an ope…

> For creators, will it be a cost equalizing combo of reality-emulating audio engines and photorealistic cloud rendering of user-friendly 3D modeling?

Oh hi, you're describing my start up ^^ So yea, I personally am betting my money that's how the future looks like for creators. In the future, you might not be able to fund a $500m Avatar. But the bet is you won't need to, because you'll be able to produce something much better with much less money. With better technology, costs decrease. Or at least I'm working everyday to make that happen :)

As for celebrities, that will always exists. There are many e-celebs today that got famous for playing games professionally, b/vlogging or podcasts etc. And there will always be people willing to pay to see them. So there will always be an economy for them regardless of which route technology goes to.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#74
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The term "media industry" is not usually applied to "crowdsourced low budget SF epics from Finland and state-subsidized art films from France", any more than the term "agricultural industry" would be applied to someone's backyard herb garden. The OP did not claim that "movies are dying", he claimed that the media industry is dying, which is a completely different statement. If the media industry dies, people will sti…

Hundred-food cinema? Mine only stocks popcorn and choc-tops.

Agh, hundred foot!

Though I suppose "hundred food" works also.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#75
Hopefully once the large copyright industries start to realise that the current system will lack efficacy going forward, we can all unite for something better to replace the current intellectual property laws (note: I'm excluding trademarks here because that is a different matter).

Simply getting rid of IP is not the answer - this is an opportunity to completely replace them with something better.

IP law, if it worked as intended, has two consequences: * The more quality content you produce, the more revenue you derive from it. * The more content you consume, the higher your costs for it are.

The former is a good thing from a macroeconomic perspective - it incentivises the creation of quality content - and very few people would disagree that it is a good thing.

However, it is a bad thing to make people pay more to use more content / ideas / knowledge - from a macroeconomic perspective, if there is no marginal cost to using something, but it improves efficiency, then if more people use it, that is better for everyone.

Therefore, there is a need to decouple paying people based on how much content they produce and how useful it is (the good part) from the idea that you pay more to use more content. Some kind of flat rate (perhaps as an alternative to the current system in the interim) would be one solution - everyone pays a flat fee for blanket exemption from liability under copyright and patent law, and are obliged to cite sources for their product. Content producers declare their costs, and the received flat fees are divided to content creators / knowledge discoverers based on development costs and level of usage (direct and indirect).

There would be numerous complex cases and ways to exploit the system that would need to be closed and resolved through the courts, but I don't think it is fundamentally impossible, and it would both revitalise innovation and allow new types of content creation industries to be sustainable, reversing some of the vertical integration that currently occurs due to the current difficulty in making certain types of ideas profitable if you don't apply them yourself.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#76
Your argument has no basis. If storage capabilities have a relative relationship to the success or failure of the entertainment industry, why is there no trend of correlation thus far? Storage media keeps improving, yet the entertainment industry's size and profits are not declining at all.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#77
post #54

Wow. Simply, wow. I was literally 90% done with my Kill Hollywood RFS application when I saw Paul's tweet about this article and it stopped me dead in my tracks. Can anyone tell me that the Kill Hollywood is about making the world better and not simply about revenge? I just finished ranting like a lunatic on twitter (sorry Paul), but I'm going to try and be nice here. Keep in mind that you are attacking my very livel…

> You tell me we can crowdfund a $500 million dollar Avatar without using the hedge fund approach of a major studio, and I will change my mind. That's a key problem. And I don't pretend to have the answer but things will change whether you or I like it or not. That said I prefer Primer over Avatar, big budgets be damned.

I guess my point is that the current (flawed) system at least allows for those big budget films to exist and be appreciated by the people who want to see them.

If our goal as entrepreneurs is to delight users, then we should be considering how we're impacting consumers/creators (the two users that matter IMHO) during this era of disrupting distribution (distributors being a third, less important type of user to me).

Call me naive if you wish, but people love movies and I think it's important to fight for that.

Thank you for allowing me to rant about your blog post.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#78

This is big talk, but in the meantime I went to the gym the other day and checked out the movies for sale and bought a Blu-Ray of the Truman Show for $7.99. I went home and played it, there were no annoying trailers or anything. Me, my son, and the reporter who's always writing about our coven in the newspaper all watched it and had a great time. Hollywood offers consumers many chump choices (like bloated cable packa…

I love this. You are correct on all accounts. In theory, creating a movie is about telling a story with the best possible content and the best possible experience. You might laugh at the thought, but I can promise you that all filmmakers toil under that aspiration. Actors, hair, makeup, wardrobe, location, sfx, vfx, audio, music... ALL handcrafted and laboriously created in pursuit of telling the story as best you can. Theaters, Blu-ray, Dolby, HD, 3D, all developed in the hopes of creating the best possible experience for that content. I'm not saying there isn't a lot of crap (lord knows I've personally worked on many terrible movies), but I'm speaking of ideals here. Shall we Kill Hollywood and replace everything with cat videos on Youtube? That's too easy. I can offer many suggestions on how to vindictively kill Hollywood right now, but that would be a disservice to people like you who just want to enjoy watching a movie. And it's because Hollywood contains this fantastic talent base, and enormous back catalog, that they will be around for a long time to come.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#79
post #38

I think there's a larger picture here. It's time to declare war on middlemen, period. There are producers and customers. There is no place for anything else in the 21st century. Here's a startup formula for you all: 1) Identify a place where a middleman is taking a cut or gate-keeping an industry. 2) Design a system, technology, or service that either eliminates the middleman entirely or replaces it with something fa…

This will be your outcome: each system will race to the bottom, a market leader will emerge and converge into a monopoly, this market leader will begin exploiting everyone. Nothing will change except for the names of the companies.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#80
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bourgeoisie? :) I worked my way up from nothing and my perspective is simply that of someone who has seen the industry from several different angles. Also, like any sane person, I believe that pirates are only frustrated consumers (I know I am). But where does that leave us... how do you keep humanity entertained while "software is eating the world." What does that technology look like? For distribution, is it an ope…

> For creators, will it be a cost equalizing combo of reality-emulating audio engines and photorealistic cloud rendering of user-friendly 3D modeling? Oh hi, you're describing my start up ^^ So yea, I personally am betting my money that's how the future looks like for creators. In the future, you might not be able to fund a $500m Avatar. But the bet is you won't need to, because you'll be able to produce something mu…

Sounds like a cool start-up. Got a website?
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