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The death throes of an industry

jacquesmattheij.com

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Re: The death throes of an industry

#21

Post by crusso »

The business model will definitely evolve with all the digitization and internet pressures. Claiming that the industry is exhibiting "death throes" is way way way premature, though.

The way I look at it, government power and spending are on the rise. Meanwhile, big media continues to be very important to politics, both as a source of money and as a source of star power for re-elections. Those two forces working together will be extraordinarily difficult to kill. Like a many-headed hydra, we'll whack off a head or two, but the darned thing will keep fighting for its existence.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#22

Post by jacquesm »

cstross wrote: post #18

An industry is dying ... That industry is the media industry That's a spectacularly vague assertion. Let me give you a more pointed one: there is no such thing as the media industry . In [textual] publishing alone there are at least a dozen different highly specialized industries that, aside from a common technology base (the printing press) are radically different in structure and operation. And that's within any on…

You're right! That's why you're the writer and I'm the (very much part time) blogger I guess.

I'll try to be more precise in the future, the media industry is indeed a much too broad brush. This bit started out as an email I wrote to myself a while ago and then posted in response to another thread on HN, I should have done a better job of sharpening it before posting it.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#23

Post by guard-of-terra »

The idea of a digital stockpile of the world culture in your closet is very interesting.

I already have a torrent of 100 thousand books on my mirror raid, for example, so I'm sure I won't be missing much even if they go nuclear on internet piracy. In a few years you'd be able to do the same with music and movies.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#24

Post by jmillikin »

cstross wrote: post #18

An industry is dying ... That industry is the media industry That's a spectacularly vague assertion. Let me give you a more pointed one: there is no such thing as the media industry . In [textual] publishing alone there are at least a dozen different highly specialized industries that, aside from a common technology base (the printing press) are radically different in structure and operation. And that's within any on…

The term "media industry" is not usually applied to "crowdsourced low budget SF epics from Finland and state-subsidized art films from France", any more than the term "agricultural industry" would be applied to someone's backyard herb garden.

The OP did not claim that "movies are dying", he claimed that the media industry is dying, which is a completely different statement. If the media industry dies, people will still make movies, they just won't have the massive budgets that contemporary movies have.

For what it's worth, I think the OP is letting his anticipation cloud his better judgment. While the media industry will certainly decrease in size and influence, and will probably become more selective about which scripts it funds, it will continue to exist so long as customers are willing to pay $20 for the experience of watching a blockbuster on a hundred-food cinema screen.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#25

Post by guard-of-terra »

paulsutter wrote: post #4
Tyrant505 wrote: post #2

Your formatting got screwed on a copy/paste I assume, bit difficult to read.

Couldn't all of the mobile apps our friends are writing fit onto that same disk drive? With room to spare for the source code to Facebook and Google? Does that indicate that the entire intellectual property business is in its "death throes"? You could also include all the credit card numbers and ACH information for all the accounts in the world on that same drive. I guess that means its OK to use those numbers? How c…

"the bits created by media companies" They don't. Media companies don't write songs, neither they're really shoot movies. They are the middlemen.

Yes, I think that my bits are more valuable than the vapor created by middlemen.

But there's more important issue: Once I have 100000 books, 1000000 songs and 10000 movies on my hard drives, I might lose desire to have any of their bits at all. I don't even need them produced because the bits already there are just as fine.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#26

Post by cstross »

jacquesm wrote: post #22
cstross wrote: post #18

An industry is dying ... That industry is the media industry That's a spectacularly vague assertion. Let me give you a more pointed one: there is no such thing as the media industry . In [textual] publishing alone there are at least a dozen different highly specialized industries that, aside from a common technology base (the printing press) are radically different in structure and operation. And that's within any on…

You're right! That's why you're the writer and I'm the (very much part time) blogger I guess. I'll try to be more precise in the future, the media industry is indeed a much too broad brush. This bit started out as an email I wrote to myself a while ago and then posted in response to another thread on HN, I should have done a better job of sharpening it before posting it.

Oh, right.

My gut feeling, FWIW, is that the internet is a communications medium that tends to disintermediate supply chains; because it makes it really easy for people to locate sources of supply, a lot of traditional middlemen suddenly discover that nobody needs them.

But that doesn't mean there won't be any middlemen; merely that the buggy-whip vendors will be replaced by the folks who understand how to sell automobile seat covers (if you'll permit me to stretch the metaphor).

Re: The death throes of an industry

#27

Post by michaelpinto »

I do a great deal of work with youth marketing so I have a slightly different perspective. I can't speak to music -- but films cost a great deal of money to make, and YouTube videos just won't replace that.

If you look at the next generation of consumers (kids) they're watching more broadcast television than any other demographic, they're camping out overnight to see films like the Hunger Games and this may surprise you ancient twentysomethings but these kids are actually paying for their music too. This is why Katy and Gaga are making real money, but more sophisticated music aimed at young adults isn't doing well.

The biggest mistake that techies make is that they assume that their lives are the lives that everyone else leads: And this just isn't the case. Are kids spending tons of time looking at YouTube? Yes! But they're also spending hours looking at the Disney channel too and paying for songs on iTunes with that gift card that grandma got them for their birthday.

Will the film and music companies go through a great deal of disruption? Very much so — but they won't be replaced by tech companies, unless those are videogame companies. The only way that tech companies will disrupt Hollywood is if they get into producing content - so far the only examples of this is Steve Jobs taking over Pixar to make films and Sony with their valuable music and film business.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#28

Post by howardr »

cstross wrote: post #18

An industry is dying ... That industry is the media industry That's a spectacularly vague assertion. Let me give you a more pointed one: there is no such thing as the media industry . In [textual] publishing alone there are at least a dozen different highly specialized industries that, aside from a common technology base (the printing press) are radically different in structure and operation. And that's within any on…

Yeah I never like when people toss around the term "media industry" especially in the context the author is talking about (it dying) because what exactly is media?

The author might as well have said "the media industry is dying...long live the media industry." Most of the companies that are indirectly referred don't appear to be dying at all. It's true that they are taking in less revenue, but the digital age allows them to produce and distribute at a fraction of the cost.

Hulu is a joint venture between Fox (News Corp), NBC (NBC Universal), and ABC (Walt Disney). The WSJ (owned by News Corp) has been successful in monetizing the audience instead of the content (charging you only after you have read a certain number of articles).

These companies will still be around for the foreseeable future, but instead of making billions on physical media (papers, DVDs, and CDs) they will be making billions from streaming and DRM'd content which have a lower cost to produce.

The cool thing though is that these same lowered costs allow artists to self publish if they want, but they will still need to make a deal with a distributor (perhaps directly with Apple or Amazon) to get there content into the market place.

Where the established industry has an advantage though is in its ability to market artists (and not so talented artists) outside of these new digital markets/channels.

Re: The death throes of an industry

#30

Post by epscylonb »

The smart people in the music industry know that to remain relevant they need to stay close to the artists. This once lopsided relationship is changing to be more equal, the record companies need the artists to make money.

There is value in curation, marketing and management. I expect some of the current media companies will surive but they will look different and be much more competitive.

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