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A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

economist.com

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Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#71

Post by qiskit »

kergonath wrote: post #65
landemva wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was government actions related to covid which wreaked havoc on supply chains. And endless wars are also government actions.

> It was government actions related to covid which wreaked havoc on supply chains. A million dead in the US was always going to wreck havoc, not even counting the people in hospital. For all we know it would have been much worse without government action. > And endless wars are also government actions. That is not very helpful. Countries in the Middle East dependent on grain from Ukraine had absolutely no way of avoi…

> A million dead in the US was always going to wreck havoc, not even counting the people in hospital.

Nearly 3 million people die every year with or without covid. If your claims were true, we would've been facing supply chains issues for decades already.

The supply chain issues are obviously man-made. The who, what, when, where, why and how is anyone's guess.

> Countries in the Middle East dependent on grain from Ukraine had absolutely no way of avoiding the war,

They should have diversified or had contingencies plan already. What have they been doing since the last crisis 10 years ago? Also, the middle east has some of the wealthiest oil producing countries in the world. Let them figure it out and if not, let them remove their imcompetent leaders.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#72

Post by anamax »

junofan wrote: post #63
anamax wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone And how does that happen? Be very specific and quantitative. For example, which land gets planted that isn't planted now. Or, which crop gets replaced. Where do the inputs come from and how is that paid for? (Be sure to include equipment.) Bloomberg notwithstanding, US farmers are actually fairly technically sophisticated. They're also money driven and competent.

Futures? This is what they’re for. Agriculture deals with shocks all the time. Nobody’s going to give you a centrally planned rundown.

Futures is just how farmers could pay to produce this extra 10%, assuming that everyone involved believes that farmers could deliver at less than the "raised" amount.

Futures doesn't address any of the "how do they actually do it" issues that I raised.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#73

Post by notfromhere »

charliea0 wrote: post #43

I'm kinda skeptical of the severity of this issue. Apparently Ukraine was expected to export 33.8 million tonnes of corn this year. The USDA says that the US produced 13,691,561,000 bushels of corn in 2019. If I converted the units correctly, that is 383 million tons. Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest. Now there certainly could be an issue of price and logistics costs i…

Ukraine is a big exporter of wheat and other grains. Combined with the fertilizer shortage, there's not a good way for global production to adjust in time for food security not to be an issue.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#74

Post by cassac »

charliea0 wrote: post #43

I'm kinda skeptical of the severity of this issue. Apparently Ukraine was expected to export 33.8 million tonnes of corn this year. The USDA says that the US produced 13,691,561,000 bushels of corn in 2019. If I converted the units correctly, that is 383 million tons. Just a 10% increase in production in the US alone would replace Ukraine's harvest. Now there certainly could be an issue of price and logistics costs i…

Why do you think it would be trivial to just increase production by 10%?

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#75

Post by sokoloff »

ImPostingOnHN wrote: post #67
sokoloff wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Including at least one converted guided missile cruiser.

I don't think submarines can include cruisers ;P

They just don't resurface... ;)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_Moskva

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#77

Post by ceejayoz »

ImPostingOnHN wrote: post #76
ceejayoz wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was unaware vegetarianism required surgery.

that is not what the person you're replying to said.

Sure it is. Humans don't need four stomachs to handle grain.

You'd need it to eat grass, but the article doesn't say anything about humans eating grass.

> With only grass-fed livestock, individual Americans would still get more than the recommended daily allowance (RDA) of meat and dairy protein, according to Pimentel's report, "Livestock Production: Energy Inputs and the Environment."

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#78

Post by viraptor »

planetsprite wrote: post #18
nine_k wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mean that remaining primitive hunters-gatherers, as now observed in certain places near Amazon river, would be more of a success?

yes according to modern media sentiment. Never once have I watched a movie that argued for the antithesis of the "Avatar" respect nature mantra. I mean even without the warmongering factories are never portrayed in a positive light unless they're Willy Wonka's.

The media sentiment skips over the newborn deaths, starvation due to bad year of weather, families wiped by simple diseases, and all the other things we pretty much learned how to deal with.

Re: A world grain shortage puts tens of millions at risk

#79

Post by roflyear »

Mountain_Skies wrote: post #52
pavankat wrote: post #50

Good opportunity to reduce livestock and redirect crops for human consumption https://news.cornell.edu/stories/1997/08/future-water-and-en...

As soon as humans grow multiple stomachs, we'll be all set.

What % of livestock feed requires four stomachs? What % of the land used for that feed grows crops that could not sustain people?

If you don't know the answer to either of these, you're full of shit.

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