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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#71

Post by throwaway984393 »

edrxty wrote: post #57
hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

Assuming you are very mechanically inclined but not particularly well versed to traditional construction, what does one do to learn more about this process?

Spend 3 months watching YouTube, you'll probably learn more tips than many contractors know. Then 3 months practicing small mock-ups - building forms, frames, stairs, windows, roofs, installing insulation, vapor barriers, sheeting, drywall. A fancy shed isn't a bad place to start.

Plan on hiring a plumber, electrician, and HVAC specialist. Probably another 3-6 months to figure out all the paperwork.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#75

Post by [deleted] »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #42
xnx wrote: post #35

Multi-year chart of lumber prices puts some of these "skyrocketing" and "cratering" headlines in perspective: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

I don’t understand your comment and scare quotes, do you think a quadrupling in price of a commodity is not skyrocketing? That’s a cool website thank you for sharing it.

[deleted]

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#76

Post by arthurcolle »

da_chicken wrote: post #48
NikolaNovak wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like the chart, but it's exactly what the article indicated, no? Article indicated It went up to 3 times the price and is now down to pre rocket prices. Charts seem to agree?

Because sometimes "skyrocketing" means going 1% over the average annual high, or "cratering" going 2% below widely published analyst forecasting. In other words, the media is often radically hyperbolic to get clicks and ad views. So much so that when they use the same adjectives correctly they don't carry any weight anymore. They're the boy who cried wolf.

Average annual high (I'm assuming you're using the stock price daily high from a multi-year set of highs from its daily OHLC bars as the 'high' here) is a poor metric to evaluate whether or not a company is doing well. Low beta stocks usually don't really outperform so I mean you need to just optimize for low correlation, high relative outperformance vs. a sector wide index or something.

I just don't think the random numbers you asserted are real at all - this would be something that one would need to test.

Anyone getting their 'market moving news' from BusinessInsider/financial news sites is doing it wrong.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#77

Post by JimTheMan »

kortilla wrote: post #70
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand your comment and scare quotes, do you think a quadrupling in price of a commodity is not skyrocketing? That’s a cool website thank you for sharing it.

No, that’s not really skyrocketing if your point of reference is other volatile things (stocks, crypto currencies, etc).

It's skyrocketing for a real good that people consume in the everyday of industry.

Not some silly fantasy speculation good, like crypto or... overvalued stock.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#78

Post by hallway_monitor »

chejazi wrote: post #69
xnx wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks. I'm legitimately quoting, but also prefer use of more specific terms like "tripled" or "fives times more expensive" etc. than common dramatic headlines words like "crushed", "slammed", "blasted", "surged".

Don't forget "soared" and "plunged", used practically any day the market moves more than a hair.

It's interesting to pay attention to the verbs chosen to describe things done or said by politicians

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#79

Post by reilly3000 »

wyager wrote: post #16
reilly3000 wrote: post #4

If the price keeps dropping at this rate lumber will be free by December! /s Seriously, this is a welcome correction, and another sign that runaway inflation fears were based on hyperbole.

One commodity out of hundreds has come down a bit. I wouldn’t write off inflation fears yet.

It’s sensible to think that there will be at least inflation commensurate with QE. That in combination with pandemic related supply chain issues make sense for inflation to be very real, but a lasting, runaway inflation lacks the fundamentals- consumer purchasing power remains strong and there is upward pressure on wages.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#80

Post by JKCalhoun »

godelski wrote: post #45
bandyaboot wrote: post #8

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

The only people I saw saying this were the people on mainstream news like CNN or Fox (more Fox). But outside that I didn't hear anyone. Lumber has been falling since May and lumber futures have been going down as well. Really the only people that were saying that prices would remain high had a vested interest in keeping it high. It is such an insane position to even take considering that a pandemic is a temporary thi…

> The only people I saw saying this were the people on mainstream news like CNN or Fox.

:

> Really the only people that were saying that prices would remain high had a vested interest in keeping it high.

Not seeing a connection here.

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